News trading discussion - continuation

haven't trade news for while, just have time to do it today

I trade news more than 5 years. There are good profir ratio if you know what you are doing.. Your enemy is slippage and spread widening..

Wednesday
4:30
03/06/15
AU GDP growth HOT!
(AU GDP), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 40.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Wednesday
11:30
03/06/15
GB The index of activity in the service sector GOOD
(GB Services PMI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
30% probability trades.

Wednesday
14:45
03/06/15
EU minimum interest rate of the Central Bank
(EU Minimum Bid Rate), the EU, EURUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.

Wednesday
15:15
03/06/15
US ADP number of employed
(US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
20% probability trades.

30 pips

good start to the day

At 8:30 am EST the ECB Press Conference will provide some volatility. You can watch it live here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/live/europe

At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.
******************************************************************
Analysts Forecast 1.6 Million Barrel Drop in Crude Stocks
Published: Jun 02, 2015

By Nicole Friedman


NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to show a decline in data Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 11 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have fallen by 1.6 million barrels, on average, in the week ended May 29.

Ten analysts expect stockpiles to fall, while one expects a rise. Forecasts range from a rise of 1.5 million barrels to a drop of 3 million barrels.

The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 100,000 barrels, according to analysts. Seven analysts expect a gain, with four expecting a decline. Estimates range from a rise of 2.2 million barrels to a drop of 2.9 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 1.2 million barrels. Nine analysts expect a rise, while one sees a decline and one expects no change. Forecasts range from a drop of 100,000 barrels to a gain of 3.1 million barrels.

Refinery use is seen rising 0.3 percentage point to 93.9% of capacity, based on EIA data. Seven analysts expect a gain, two expect a decrease and two didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from a rise of 1.0 point to a drop of 0.6 point.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is scheduled to release its inventory data for the same period later Tuesday.

Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital -1.1 2.2 3.1 0.5
Citi Futures Perspective -2.5 1.0 1.0 0.5
Confluence Investment Management -2.5 0.5 1.5 1.0
Energy Management Institute 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.3
Excel Futures -1.8 -1.1 -0.1 -0.6
Frost & Sullivan -2.0 -1.0 1.5 0.5
IAF Advisors -0.5 2.0 unch n/a
Ritterbusch and Associates -1.5 1.3 1.3 0.5
Schneider Electric -3.0 -2.9 0.5 0.8
Tradition Energy -3.0 -2.0 2.0 -0.5
Tyche Capital Advisors -1.5 0.2 1.0 n/a

AVERAGE -1.6 0.1 1.2 0.3

Sick slippage for me but could catch a few pips.

48 Pips , what a day

Congrats boss

Could I ask what the significance of the currency meter is for news trading?

The archive

Thursday
14:00
06/04/15
GB The official rate of asthma
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
06/04/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Worst 4 years UK Service PMI

The third day of the summer: the surprises do not get tired, despite the ECB meeting on this day, Championship, perhaps, we will give the publication of the UK.
The first day of this medium was stirring quotation indicator AU GDP q / q, the increase of which was slightly higher than expected forecasts: 0.9% vs. 0.7%. This figure may support vector RBA monetary policy shift, but before doing "more or less" formed conclusions should await the publication of data on the labor market next week.

The second came on the scene the British Services PMI, and he also won the Audience Award at this day: the data published significantly lower than expected: 56.5 against 59.2 estimated, which could not be reflected in the pound, which is paired with the USD lost a big figure.

Recall that the June 1, market expectations regarding the dynamics of sterling second quarter were quite optimistic, but now they have shifted closer to the red zone. Note that Britain is in a deflation of -0.1%. Tomorrow, we will publish a decision on interest rates from the Bank of England (changes are expected).
Remain every chance I get fairly weak GDP data for the second quarter.
As expected, Mario Draghi was not original in this time:
- QE asset purchase program is going well, the committee expects the consumer price index
- Repeat that will continue to buy assets up to 2016 until he sees stable growth dynamics of inflation
- Low oil prices continue to support household income, export extract demand due to lower prices
- Expected inflation by the end of 2015
- Will continue to monitor the dynamics of prices
- Economic risks are still downwards, but have become more balanced
- The dynamics of the credit markets improved
- See Greece in the eurozone
- May extend the program QE, but does not see now that the reasons
In general, Mario believes that he is on the right track

I got 52 pips on this one. The numbers released were really weird... well off to bed. See you tomorrow for natural gas. May I ask you how much slippage you have when trading gas? My sll slipped 20 pips today for oil which is a little bit too much for my taste.

Anyone know of a good book I can read on fundamental analysis for forex? I can only find beginner information such as what a economics calender is and what reports affect what currencies.

I want to get more into depth than that. Thanks!

Hello!
I created a news database in excel with all the news listed in FF Calendar since 2007.
I need it becouse I need an EA to access date and time of the news, to study the past reaction of prices to some news.
The problem is matching times: I buit my database in GMT, sounded like the best option to avoid problem with daylight sveings and all that stuff.
Of course my MT4 terminal will work with server time, has anyone an idea of how to convert server time in corresponing GMT in order to fine the right bar on when news occurred?
I've been scratchng my head for few days, but can't really think about a nice solution.

Thanks a lot!!