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EURUSD

  • #996,361
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:22am Jun 2, 2015 9:22am
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} as i see im not the only one to notice the bullshit...good luck all (with pharmor etc..) and thanks... sorry just passing, don't ask me anything...
the forum starts being hot...i guess the shorters have probably lost money today...damned shorters, they trade eurusd like if it is SHT/USD all year long... good job all...bye.
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #996,362
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:28am Jun 2, 2015 9:28am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I'm not even looking at the sell button
I am short. Wish me luck.

ETA: From 1107 that is. No luck it seems. Time to unwind
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #996,363
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:30am Jun 2, 2015 9:30am
even with this volume it countiunig up !!
  • #996,364
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:34am Jun 2, 2015 9:34am
Quoting FXMori
Does someone think that today's move has something to do with Fed monetary policy?
I don't think so. The Fed is poised to raise rates, probably September, even though the markets are pricing in Jan 2016. The EU inflation numbers are the culprit I suspect. Managing inflation is the ECB's mandate. And as we've seen over the past several years, monetary policy trumps all else.
  • #996,365
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:34am Jun 2, 2015 9:34am
Quoting FXMori
Does someone think that today's move has something to do with Fed monetary policy?

For me it just seems that the dollar is overbought. It needs other 2 or 3 weeks to breathe.
I don't think about Fed, Boj or Ecb in these cases, they are just small movement (big for us, of course, but small for the banks).
Try to think like a big boy, not like a retail.
IMHO
  • #996,366
  • Edited 9:46am Jun 2, 2015 9:36am | Edited 9:46am
Quoting pedro319
EURUSD Fundamental: Last week we saw again bad U.S data being attributed mainly to bad weather among other factors and Economists remain Dollar positive, after slightly better than forecast but still lower GDP numbers came out Dollar failed to rally but that is something we still need to confirm as the new week unfolds, it is NFP week and 224K new jobs added are expected, if we see something below 200K rallies on this pair are likely. Meanwhile talks about Greece reaching a deal today was one possible scenario according to Greek sources in stark...
EURUSD
Strong move. Now we have thrust up and that gives me confidence in further advance towards harmonic targets on D1 chart, also price was able to break above major pivots weekly and monthly (this is what I meant by fast moves to test new pivots). There is completed ABCD in blue on H4 but CD leg is too fast compared to AB and while we can have retracement, (that will be opportunity to add long trades when it's finished) there is possibility for more moves like today. 1.1800 is one of the targets but surely will take some time as we are already very close to WR3 but in this market best not to count too much on it to hold move. It is important that price takes out previous top C point ABCD in red to form reversal swing. Monitoring candlestick is all I can do atm to assess when will retracement start if any. Brent follows to 75.00.
H4 and D1 charts attached.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: abcd h4 02 June.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD ABCD Daily.png Size: 34 KB
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  • #996,367
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:37am Jun 2, 2015 9:37am
Quoting SuperMario21
{quote} For me it just seems that the dollar is overbought. It needs other 2 or 3 weeks to breathe. I don't think about Fed, Boj or Ecb in these cases, they are just small movement (big for us, of course, but small for the banks). Try to think like a big boy, not like a retail. IMHO
I beg to differ. The EUR is up across the board, not just against the dollar.
  • #996,368
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:38am Jun 2, 2015 9:38am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} EURUSD Strong move. Now we have thrust up and that gives me confidence in further advance towards harmonic targets on D1 chart, also price was able to break above major pivots weekly and monthly (this is what I meant by fast moves to test new pivots). There is completed ABCD in blue on H4 but CD leg is too fast compared to AB and while we can have retracement, (that will be opportunity to add long trades when it's finished) there is possibility for more moves like today. 1.1800 is one of the targets but surely will take sometime as we are...
whats your view on USDJPY ? thnaks
  • #996,369
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:39am Jun 2, 2015 9:39am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} EURUSD Strong move. Now we have thrust up and that gives me confidence in further advance towards harmonic targets on D1 chart, also price was able to break above major pivots weekly and monthly (this is what I meant by fast moves to test new pivots). There is completed ABCD in blue on H4 but CD leg is too fast compared to AB and while we can have retracement, (that will be opportunity to add long trades when it's finished) there is possibility for more moves like today. 1.1800 is one of the targets but surely will take sometime as we are...

This seems the right way
  • #996,370
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:42am Jun 2, 2015 9:42am
Quoting SuperMario21
{quote} For me it just seems that the dollar is overbought. It needs other 2 or 3 weeks to breathe. I don't think about Fed, Boj or Ecb in these cases, they are just small movement (big for us, of course, but small for the banks). Try to think like a big boy, not like a retail. IMHO
I agree with you, we must think like a big boy.
Big boy can hold their positions.
That's why i suspect that fed won't hike that soon. Rate hike was one of the main factor pulling down the pair (the other two being qe and EU debt crisis). If this is a short covering it's because they think that is too risky keeping position open in term of risk/reward. But if fed was about to hike, dollar would go insanely up. So, why covering?
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #996,371
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:42am Jun 2, 2015 9:42am
MM's are still buying.. price climbed above zone 1.1152/62 I mentioned before.. no sign of bears yet.. let's see if this zone holds.. if yes more higher

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #996,372
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:43am Jun 2, 2015 9:43am
Quoting stewi3
{quote} I beg to differ. The EUR is up across the board, not just against the dollar.
Rember that since eur/usd is the most traded pair a big move in this pair affect the relative strength of the other against all minor currencies.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #996,373
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:45am Jun 2, 2015 9:45am
Double top 1 h
  • #996,374
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:45am Jun 2, 2015 9:45am
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} I am short. Wish me luck. ETA: From 1107 that is. No luck it seems. Time to unwind
You'd need luck indeed

We need a minimum of another new highs before thinking of shorting for reversal

Lets see 1,1200 or 1,127x or higher
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #996,375
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:46am Jun 2, 2015 9:46am
Quoting FXMori
{quote} Rember that since eur/usd is the most traded pair a big move in this pair affect the relative strength of the other against all minor currencies.
That's not necessarily true. As a previous poster pointed out, bunds are taking a nose-dive <--- this is NOT driven by spot EUR/USD Quite the contrary.
  • #996,376
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:48am Jun 2, 2015 9:48am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} dude i had the same feelign on EURUSD going up to take out 1.10 on friday despite good US news coming out.... GDP being better than forecast and shit..... so yea dont trust friday's move and now we see this shit on Monday... so which move is real?? tell me?

u are right..
  • #996,377
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:49am Jun 2, 2015 9:49am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
MM's are still buying.. price climbed above zone 1.1152/62 I mentioned before.. no sign of bears yet.. let's see if this zone holds.. if yes more higher Happy Trades
Mate please can I see your Ichimoku chart? Prefere h4. Mine forming wannabe cup and handle. Should it break it goes 1,136.

edit: Will show cup n handle gimme a sec
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cup.JPG Size: 160 KB
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  • #996,378
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:53am Jun 2, 2015 9:53am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} You'd need luck indeed We need a minimum of another new highs before thinking of shorting for reversal Lets see 1,1200 or 1,127x or higher
Yes. Agree. Was a bad entry. Let see if my exit is any better.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #996,379
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:55am Jun 2, 2015 9:55am
Quoting stewi3
{quote} That's not necessarily true. As a previous poster pointed out, bunds are taking a nose-dive <--- this is NOT driven by spot EUR/USD Quite the contrary.
I'm a theoretical physics, so i'm little biased about this thing. There is a lot of thing that i don't know about fx and i keep learning, but my reasoning is this:
Fx market has a total money amount. it can change, people may take out their money and buy houses, cars, stocks and whatever. But let assume that during a single day the total amount of money in the game doesn't change that much. In that case since more than 25% of trades are made on eur/usd a big move in this pair starts a chain reaction in all other pair involving the dollar (or euro), echoing in all pair involving the euro (or the dollar). It's kind of a conservation theorem

Long story short: Eur/Usd Up a lot ---> dollar down against all currencies, eur up against all currencies
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #996,380
  • Jun 2, 2015 9:56am Jun 2, 2015 9:56am
Quoting hoom
{quote} the extended fall from 1.146x to 1.081x was mainly due to Greek BS... a magical deal is most likely ... wide chop zone created from 1.08xx to 1.122x.. hoom
1.122x is the first big level in the bull side ... dont jump in like fools between levels....know how to lower your drawdown !

hoom.
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