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Scalping the Mini Dow off the M1 Charts

  • #161
  • May 11, 2015 1:32pm May 11, 2015 1:32pm
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} There is a LOT of psychology and gut feeling in trading. Knowing where the people are, how they are positioned, when do they puke and how does the market react to these events. A friend of mine trades Dow with 100-200 lots (not demo! ) and all he does is putting himself in other traders shoes...
.....and all he does is putting himself in other traders shoes​..... BANG!

All trading is, is working out what other traders are doing and then working out how to take advantage of their mistakes

Rgds,
VB
  • #162
  • May 12, 2015 12:58am May 12, 2015 12:58am
Quoting felixcattus
This morning's trading video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2g2O99INg8 Additionally I had a question about trading of May 5, 2015 and so I decided to make a short video with commentary about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzGFdtGavHY
Hey there Felix, just following in the background and learning as I go and enjoying your daily reviews. I saw the clip on 05May DOW and it raised a couple of thoughts for me.
1. Noting the premarket move on 05May and the apparent consolidation period around the 19657-67 region and then the continuation after 10 minutes; would you consider this a candidate for Elliot Wave Theory in that the initial push was Wave A, the consolidation was Wave B and the continuation was Wave C?
Especially in view of the fact that Wave C came down to and then sat at the 61% Fib of Wave A move.
2. Looking at the 0932min candle spastic action and then the full bodied(like a fine red wine) retrace at 0933, was there any consideration given to the fact that the 0933 candle bounced right off the 1M SMA200? Do not know if you follow those SMAs but I guess that there is always a reason for something somewhere....

And then the opening move on 07May – very nice bit of action there. Well done

Kiwi
In the tempest of a fast moving market; not everyone is happy.
  • #163
  • Edited 9:57am May 13, 2015 9:40am | Edited 9:57am
Morning all, took four trades and then stopped to watch as wanted to see the impact of Crude Inventories on the market actual.
Trade 1 based purely on the premarket limits and was a reversal inside the box after the box had been broken; worked a treat.
Trade 2 based on the break of the DO and then a reversal back off and below it; too a bit of heat and the ATM took me into the green before nailing me. Thought why the hesitancy here and moved on.
Trade 3 based on same parameters as Trade 2 and gave me a lot more heat and rejection off the same vicinity again; before nailing me. So opened up my 5Min chart and saw the SMA200 right there. Then quickly drew up a new 1M chart and imposed the 5M SMA200 on it and saw all the candles stopping right at or just before the dam 5M SMA200 - coincidence????
Trade 4 was a gut instinct trigger pull I guess. Saw a channel forming over the candles 44-54 and then a break short. Waited for the rejection which came and then placed a sell just down below where it had run to previously.

I'm still learning to get the feel for what the market would do, as in with the break of the swings and admittedly it is hard not to jump too fast.
The chart you see shows a 1M SMA100 (red) and a 5M SMA200 (blue) line on it and the timezone colour change from mush yellow to grey is at kickoff... 0930

Hope the above makes sense
EDIT: just to clarify, the above were done in SIM as in study mode right now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture YM 14MAY15.JPG Size: 134 KB
In the tempest of a fast moving market; not everyone is happy.
  • #164
  • May 13, 2015 1:14pm May 13, 2015 1:14pm
This morning's trading video:
Inserted Video


Also, I see questions / comments / charts which is really cool! Will respond as soon as I can.
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #165
  • May 26, 2015 9:09am May 26, 2015 9:09am
Morning all, well after a holiday away and being banned from doing any trading whilst away, am back now to see what carnage has occurred and to continue the journey.
Unfortunately the reversal back into the pre-market box failed; not once but twice.
Interestingly enough, the Elliot Wave was formed here but I was not looking for this so did not see it until too late... isn't that how it happens so often.

Felix, you been taking a bit of R+R too?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture YM 27MAY15.JPG Size: 120 KB
In the tempest of a fast moving market; not everyone is happy.
  • #166
  • May 26, 2015 9:13am May 26, 2015 9:13am
Quoting kiwis
Morning all, well after a holiday away and being banned from doing any trading whilst away, am back now to see what carnage has occurred and to continue the journey. Unfortunately the reversal back into the pre-market box failed; not once but twice. Interestingly enough, the Elliot Wave was formed here but I was not looking for this so did not see it until too late... isn't that how it happens so often. Felix, you been taking a bit of R+R too? {image}
Hey kiwis -

Here were the trades I took this morning:
Inserted Video


I will try to do a video explaining my thought process here - promise as soon as I have time
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #167
  • May 26, 2015 5:16pm May 26, 2015 5:16pm
Quoting felixcattus
{quote} Hey kiwis - Here were the trades I took this morning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6JAEabxTE4 I will try to do a video explaining my thought process here - promise as soon as I have time
Hi Felix,

Do you scalp forex as well? Or just the Dow? Thank you.
  • #168
  • May 30, 2015 12:39pm May 30, 2015 12:39pm
I only scalp the Dow - and sometimes, the NQ (mini Nasdaq). There are a few reasons why:

1) The spread with Forex makes scalping problematic for me.

2) The Dow and e-mini markets have an opening influx of volatility at the cash open at 9:30am ET. It's this time in the market where the opportunities are for me.

Quoting piptime
{quote} Hi Felix, Do you scalp forex as well? Or just the Dow? Thank you.
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #169
  • May 31, 2015 3:03pm May 31, 2015 3:03pm
Quoting felixcattus
I only scalp the Dow - and sometimes, the NQ (mini Nasdaq). There are a few reasons why: 1) The spread with Forex makes scalping problematic for me. 2) The Dow and e-mini markets have an opening influx of volatility at the cash open at 9:30am ET. It's this time in the market where the opportunities are for me. {quote}
@ 1) the spread:Ok but you pay commissions. On those typical 10-12 points you make, how much is that? Correct my if I'm wrong but I've seen you make profit trades around 300-350$. How much is left of that? 40-50% ?
Demo only
  • #170
  • Edited 3:29pm May 31, 2015 3:11pm | Edited 3:29pm
Quoting bg_sunny
{quote} @ 1) the spread:Ok but you pay commissions. On those typical 10-12 points you make, how much is that? Correct my if I'm wrong but I've seen you make profit trades around 300-350$. How much is left of that? 40-50% ?
Total cost is less than $5 round-turn(open & close) for most futures trades (including YM, NQ, ES, etc.....).
YM>> 1 tick=$5
NQ>> 1 tick=$6.25
ES>> 1 tick=$12.50
No additional transaction costs.
  • #171
  • Jun 1, 2015 9:18am Jun 1, 2015 9:18am
Hi Jason, I had a crack at this method on demo today, sure didn't look as good as when you do it, but I managed 2 pips up. Were you on board today?
  • #172
  • Jun 1, 2015 9:27am Jun 1, 2015 9:27am
Was on board this morning, yup. Here's this morning's video:

Inserted Video


When I first started trading this way I had absolutely no clue what I was doing. It takes time but eventually becomes a part of you.

Quoting minute
Hi Jason, I had a crack at this method on demo today, sure didn't look as good as when you do it, but I managed 2 pips up. Were you on board today?
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #173
  • Jun 1, 2015 9:31am Jun 1, 2015 9:31am
For all intents and purposes, the commission fee is equivalent (roughly) to 1 point per trade x the number of contracts traded.

So the commissions are favorable but a very important thing to remember is, the fewer trades the better. To put this in plain perspective, if your SL / profit target on all scalp trades is 8 points, but you take 8 trades during a session, you've essentially taken 1 full losing trade during that session regardless of how well you do.

Quoting bg_sunny
{quote} @ 1) the spread:Ok but you pay commissions. On those typical 10-12 points you make, how much is that? Correct my if I'm wrong but I've seen you make profit trades around 300-350$. How much is left of that? 40-50% ?
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #174
  • Jun 1, 2015 9:34am Jun 1, 2015 9:34am
That is really good.. you played it perfect didn't get sucked in by that last range.

I stupidly was using stop orders, then i realise you just enter at market.

That is really cool, how you do that.
  • #175
  • Jun 1, 2015 9:36am Jun 1, 2015 9:36am
I managed to get in on the same first trade as you but didn't get on board that short, which was the main movement, can I ask what triggered your entry there?
  • #176
  • Jun 1, 2015 12:12pm Jun 1, 2015 12:12pm
Coming into the open we saw the market making a run up to the prior highs of 105s. All things in context, it looked prime for a break and to make new highs and my feeling was that not just lower timeframe traders but higher time frame traders were initiating long into that move, thus getting trapped. This was the case for the first short, but the 2nd short (the one that was a full win) was really just a continuation of that move. My feeling was there was no bullish strength left to take the market higher again at that point. That, and sell stops likely piled up from all the traders looking to get long.

When the market fails one side of the range (as it failed the upside), it usually trades to the other side of the range.

Quoting minute
I managed to get in on the same first trade as you but didn't get on board that short, which was the main movement, can I ask what triggered your entry there?
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #177
  • Jun 1, 2015 8:53pm Jun 1, 2015 8:53pm
Thanks for your explanation and posting the video...it's really helpful. Plus great tunes.
  • #178
  • Jun 2, 2015 3:33am Jun 2, 2015 3:33am
Hi,

awesome thread! I have always been a disaster on 1 minute tf but i find your videos very interesting!
First rule is not to lose. Second rule is not to forget the first rule...
  • #179
  • Jun 2, 2015 8:09am Jun 2, 2015 8:09am
Looking forward to seeing this morning's action and if my notes can tally up with yours - cheers for the thread!
  • #180
  • Jun 2, 2015 8:51am Jun 2, 2015 8:51am
Mmm...didn't play so good today... start was some big wick candles seemed like a lottery to pick a direction, also finding a starting range a bit tricky.
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