EURUSD

Same here... Goodbuy : )

EURUSD
Fundamental:
Last week we saw again bad U.S data being attributed mainly to bad weather among other factors and Economists remain Dollar positive, after slightly better than forecast but still lower GDP numbers came out Dollar failed to rally but that is something we still need to confirm as the new week unfolds, it is NFP week and 224K new jobs added are expected, if we see something below 200K rallies on this pair are likely. Meanwhile talks about Greece reaching a deal today was one possible scenario according to Greek sources in stark contrast with what was said by Eurozone officials very cautious on a positive outcome so soon. ECB meeting on June the 3rd is not expected to bring major surprises whilst some degree of optimism regarding inflation and growth remains and only details on possible acceleration of QE pace will cause sell offs.
Another point to make is that given huge short positioning on this pair, any liquidation of these positions can cause strong rallies.

Technical:
Move from 1.1469 to 1.0820 was quite fast but I have to keep an eye on the risks of major move up, not only due to pattern on Monthly chart but as well because this last move up does not look like finished yet, price still short of completing retracement (if this is a retracement) on H4 and D1. PA is choppy and very slow, characteristic of retracements, I would be more confident in move to 1.1800 if there was some thrusting action from 1.0820 and so far that hasn't happened. This last level was .707 Ret D1 and price didn't even reach MS1, WS1 was able to contain move down.
Also, new month, new pivots and very often we see fast moves to test them, so another thing to look at.

Monthly: Bullish engulfing target 1.1816 and 1.2200 is nearest confluence (even a move to this level can be seen as a retracement on this timeframe.

Weekly:Last candle looks like rejection of yearly S2 pivot

Daily: Positive MACD divergence, possible move to 1.1816 target ABCD same target as monthly. Until 1.0820 is taken out this scenario is still valid. 1.1075 MPP in sight to cap upward move.

H4: Here we have completed Lightning Bolt ,reaction to last extension has passed .382 Fib resistance, move to .5 Ret H4 + .382 D1 level at 1.1065-75 would be quite logical and that is Resistance and previous support double top on D1, this is my line in the sand. If rejection occurs here by rejection candle D1, then move to 1.0600 could be on the cards.

H1: Completed ABCD at 1.1008, it's price action after that makes me think about continuation as usually price reacts rather quickly to harmonic targets, here maybe we will have a bit of retracement to 1.0940 WPP for a third drive to resistance mentioned above. Pa will show the way, MM is absolutely crucial along with technical logical entries and respective invalidation points.
H4 and D1 charts attached.

YUUUUP!!!

All this uncertainty you would have thought at least a 100 pip gap down... something aint what it seems

Dear palinco
I cannot discuss how knowing some secret would make anyone to predict the market, this is beyond my knowledge and understanding.
But what I meant here is to differentiate between pure prediction and price action analysis. Those are two different things that sometimes traders confused between them.
Pure prediction is short cut to failure , a deadly mistake, sooner or later.
But having bias depending on price action analysis is totally different, why? Because it has validation and invalidation point, the price action itself will tell you that you are wrong when crossing certain level. At that point you need to act according to your risk management.
I wish I made my point clear.
Best luck for you.

This picture never fails to make me smile

That is somewhat true. Bigger capital certainly makes it easier. But just leaving random trades without SL on works until it doesnt. And when it doesnt your random trade will eat so much DD that that 1% gains you get per month will be swallowed. Example, you place random short on XJPY, pairs rally after QE, 2 years later pairs are thousands of pips away from your entry and still going higher. And you can then trade next 3 years just to cover that DD and hope you dont get another trade to escape you in DD. If you dont use SL and you havent gone trough thousands of traded trades you cannot never know if your strategy really works. I dont know about you but for me that is too much of unstable mentally, not having at least some sort of expected stability/predictability. Even with using SL you dont have guarantee it will work in future, but without it youll decrease your chances big time.

Euro funny enough gave Bullish signs last week. In a pure technical view we had two bottoms at the exact 1/8 trendline from all time low. 13:th of mars the first and the second slightly higher at 13:th of April. 1/8 being the FINAL resistance is of big importance. break it and we have a drop to the all time low breakout from 2002. bullish signs we got last week was: a Daily bottom 27th of may. right at 4/8 mid from the april 13th bottom. Consider the last top was at the mid between 1/8 and 2/8(all time low)on the 15th of may. bought at 27th Bounce stoploss is below 1/8 line from all time low. Bullish over summer or until the 1/8 line breaks. Take profit on 2/8 line from alltime low

Finally the spreads came down enough for me to close my sell trade from last week.
Spreads were as high as 70, courtesy of MMs

True that. But you get the idea. For most ranging pairs (and yen pairs are more trendy), with half a brain and boat load of capital it is not a big deal to generate a low percent monthly. Of course you would need to know your head from your foot etc etc. Try doing the above with a small account and you will either die of drawdown or boredom.

Does anyone else noticed that eurusd is not moving? ???

it is moving

Wolf wolf!!!!

Now no one is believing Greeks officials anymore. They came on this weekend pronouncing overly positive news, the market seemed ignoring them totally. This is because they have said that many times in the past without any ground supporting Thier talks. This is scary for me.


If EU officials confirm what Greece has just announced, then the market would be crazy.

bearish move... im selling on that

According to the Deutsche Bank the strength of the Dollar is going to bring down the Euro never mind the Greek drama...

yap..im selling it too...1st tp 1.0933

ps: if 1.0930 is broken, price can go test the bottom

Eventually, I agree. This week pretty much doubt it. Unless data surprising to upside, the sentiment regarding dollar is deteriorating.

good time to buy now tp 1.1000 for today

I remain short from 1.1290, adding down to 1.0930. Took another just before close on Friday at 1.0990.

As long as we hold below 1.10, I think the shorts are in business.

Dont miss the train to 1.05!!!! last stop. Its the Midnight Express

still in my short trades. expecting to take profit this week.
expecting 1.0930 to be taken out today.