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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #57,041
  • May 29, 2015 1:35pm May 29, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Oh yes, definitely. That wave 4 looks like mess much more than any EW structure. Plus I would not be suprised if it created some kind of tranctuation for wave 5 since we are just sitting on big resistence = June 2007 high. Maybe one "theoretical" question Dano12 - I see you use (or at least post) EW usually on price, which is not lower than H1 TF. It seems to me that the "messy moves" under H1 prevent from any reasonable Elliot wave analysis under H1. What is your opinion on that? Since I bet you have more exp.... you think it is anyhow...
I only operates in 1h 4h d1 but there are some who and at 30 min and 15 min disintegrate http://elliottindicator.com/elliott-wave.pdf
  • #57,042
  • May 29, 2015 1:46pm May 29, 2015 1:46pm
I simply went Short at 124 and now waiting..

Wave or not to wave..

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  • #57,043
  • May 29, 2015 1:53pm May 29, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting Toranaga
I simply went Short at 124 and now waiting.. Wave or not to wave.. {image}
Wakarimasu Toranaga-san
  • #57,044
  • May 29, 2015 2:17pm May 29, 2015 2:17pm
Quoting shiva
{quote} Wakarimasu Toranaga-san
Domo arigato Shiva San.

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  • #57,045
  • May 29, 2015 7:33pm May 29, 2015 7:33pm
I wouldn't hold short over weekend if that's not part of your normal plan. While it looked like a low risk short during the day, when looking at 1 minute charts, situation could change at any minute. I'm not certain that "minute" yet happened but markets open on sunday for some people earlier than others and those some people could take it higher. eg. it might hit stops beyond 124.5 and then come back down (or this could be trend that goes a bit further - I'm more used to ranges - it's bit easier to say when range ends than when trend ends atleast for me - when trend is trying to say it has ended it may still go a lot further so playing with leverage is dangerous)
  • #57,046
  • May 30, 2015 10:12am May 30, 2015 10:12am
32 pips under water. I have a bad amateurish habit of trying to call reversals.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #57,047
  • May 30, 2015 1:21pm May 30, 2015 1:21pm
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...#axzz3beCUAv00
  • #57,048
  • May 30, 2015 1:43pm May 30, 2015 1:43pm
Quoting Toranaga
{quote} Domo arigato Shiva San.
  • #57,049
  • May 31, 2015 1:14pm May 31, 2015 1:14pm
any guess about uj in upcoming market session since its forming a great resistance till 124.36 also .
stay cool when trade begins
  • #57,050
  • May 31, 2015 2:10pm May 31, 2015 2:10pm
While I see a different wave structure for this sideways (4), Dano12 has the primary counts on point. We just finished or are in the midst of an impulse (i) as part of the cardinal (5). Sentiment is majorly bullish, PMs have been waiting for a breakout for a while. I believe they will make this (5) quick and drastic, as the all important summer vacation is coming into play.

USDJPY swap arrangements between NYFRB and BoJ in addition to dollar strength within a Q1 GDP contraction make this almost a comically clear-cut trade. Bears beware the evolving macro play.
  • #57,051
  • May 31, 2015 2:44pm May 31, 2015 2:44pm
It has to make some reverse soon, maybe NFP will touch 125 and gives us a pull back ;-) ... but I don't care.. I use statistics, pivots and renko to trade.
  • #57,052
  • Edited 4:14pm May 31, 2015 3:28pm | Edited 4:14pm
Quoting nobbie
It has to make some reverse soon, maybe NFP will touch 125 and gives us a pull back ;-) ... but I don't care.. I use statistics, pivots and renko to trade.

Yeah, I got all my instincts on med-long term rise but it simply has to reverse for just a tad imo. It's overextended as hell. I'm dipping my long toe in atm but there's better than 50% chance for fishing better long positions before it swings back straigh through 125 or so... My 2 cents anyway.....
"Tips are for waiters." - Reminiscences of a stock operator
  • #57,053
  • May 31, 2015 4:11pm May 31, 2015 4:11pm
Quoting nobbie
It has to make some reverse soon, maybe NFP will touch 125 and gives us a pull back ;-) ... but I don't care.. I use statistics, pivots and renko to trade.
I believe that the 125 point is a good call. I think these charts point to it.

1. long term working ellipse, which worked as resistence in 6/2007 and 12/2005.
2. short term: EW count waiting for last final push
3. short term: evolving divergencies on h1

If it evolves well, it may be nice short (still, against the main trend, so kind of risky). However, question is what would happen next. There would be time to go lower till Friday since there is no macro from Japan. However, good NFP and other numbers from US may reaffirm hikes in September and Im not sure how this pair is gonna react.
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  • #57,054
  • May 31, 2015 4:22pm May 31, 2015 4:22pm
Quoting Winthorpe
{quote} Yeah, I got all my instincts on med-long term rise but it simply has to reverse for just a tad imo. It's overextended as hell. I'm dipping my long toe in atm but there's better than 50% chance for fishing better long positions before it swings back straigh through 124.35... My 2 cents anyway.....
The Nikkei just like many many major indexes is just beyond an all time high. The US dollar is in overbought territory. We are a tad above the June 1, 2007 high now on the monthly chart. I wonder how many rate increases are already built into this rate of 124 here? The bank of Japan is going to get uncomfortable with any surges higher. They only need it to be around 100 for it to work. Any more than that can have the opposing effect on consumers as higher prices snap the purses shut. How can CAPEX increase if things are that expensive for a Japanese company? 124.50 and down a couple hundred I think. Even a normal bullish retrace and we see 122.50.

Still short @ 123.73
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #57,055
  • May 31, 2015 6:06pm May 31, 2015 6:06pm
On 2nd thought all the reasoning in the world can't fight a central bank and the BOJ has bought the Nikkei on over 140 days when it was going to close in the red. UJ could go to 125.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #57,056
  • May 31, 2015 6:55pm May 31, 2015 6:55pm
I don't believe wave 4 (on H1 chart) has completed yet. Bars continue to chop.

Drop to 123.30-123 area by NY opening should do it
  • #57,057
  • May 31, 2015 7:20pm May 31, 2015 7:20pm
currently, all jpy data is very good. but i don't understand why usdjpy is going up cuntinuesly..
don't find the correct answer in market. just feel it and follow the wave.
  • #57,058
  • May 31, 2015 7:31pm May 31, 2015 7:31pm
Quoting yunyoungro
currently, all jpy data is very good. but i don't understand why usdjpy is going up cuntinuesly..
Its in the air......Dollar has the sweetest smell.

IMO, it's the market force at play. Jap economy import will be hit hard by the devalued Yen.
  • #57,059
  • Jun 1, 2015 12:48am Jun 1, 2015 12:48am
Sources of Changes in Current Account Balances and Market Operations (May)
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/b...juqf/juqf.htm/

In the file,
at the end,
the "Notes" :
point 6 and point 10.
and then read back to the respective items on the main body.
  • #57,060
  • Jun 1, 2015 1:47am Jun 1, 2015 1:47am
If the price fall below SL , then it's nulified
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
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