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  • #995,021
  • May 31, 2015 5:32am May 31, 2015 5:32am
USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD: Outlooks For The Coming Week - Morgan Stanley
31 May 2015 00:39 EDT


"USD: The End of a Consolidation.
Bullish. The USD uptrend has continued, driven largely by technical but also supported by stronger US data. Heightened concerns about Greece have weighed on EURUSD, while USDJPY has broken out of its latest range. Both of these have spilled over into broader USD strength. At the same time, recent US data has been marginally stronger. We get a slew of data next week, and it will be key to see if this trend of improvement continues.
EUR: The End of the Correction.
Bearish. The EUR retracement is over, as concerns about Greece have risen. This should keep volatility surrounding European assets elevated, weighing on the currency. In addition, the results of the Spanish local elections increase the risks of political uncertainty going forward, which could also impact broader European asset volatility. Overall, we believe that EUR is likely to weaken over coming weeks.

http://www.efxnews.com/story/29156/u...morgan-stanley
  • #995,022
  • May 31, 2015 5:37am May 31, 2015 5:37am
Pound Sterling to Euro Exchange Rate News: GBP/EUR Forecast to Rise on Greek Default, GBP/USD Softer on 2015 Rate Hike Bets
Posted about 4 hours ago

http://www.euroexchangeratenews.co.u...ike-bets-12305
  • #995,023
  • May 31, 2015 6:32am May 31, 2015 6:32am
Managing drawdowns.

Despite trading with the long-term trend, I saw almost all of my trades slip into drawdown till either they hit stoploss or I closed them manually. And invariably the market, after shaking me off, would resume the trend. This proved I was right with my entries but wrong with managing the trades. The internet is awash with free advice about never to trade without a stop loss and how to use a risk based hard stop loss, so I tried increasing the stop loss distance, reduce risk and a combination of both, to no great avail.

Then a lucky break...I ran into a professional trader who let me watch him trade. Boy was that a revelation. He used no stop losses, scaled into losing positions and hardly ever closed out a position in drawdown. I finally learned that in order to earn money from forex, learning to manage drawdowns, both financially and emotionally, was as important as following the long-term trend.

The financial aspect of managing a drawdown was easier and led me into a whole new way of calculating the risk that was very different from the usual method that is preached over the internet. I learned that the pros think in terms of account endurance more than anything else when confronting drawdowns and are never bothered by losing positions. So instead of using risk percentage based hard stoploss, I started calculating how many pips of drawdown would my account sustain before getting margin called. For example on an account of USD 5,000, a 0.1 lot position is worth 1 USD per pip and very roughly a drawdown of 5,000 pips would be needed to wipe out my entire account. Similarly a 0.05 lot position will require the market to move by 10,000 pips to get margin called. A 5,000 - 10,000 pips move in a liquid pair such as the EURUSD without direct interventions by central banks is highly unlikely. I also started scaling into losing positions to enter at better prices. This of course reduced my account endurance but all I needed was a few thousand pips of endurance as the market eventually turned around in a few hundred pips. I didn't abandon the stop loss entirely but now use it only to lock profits.

The emotional aspect of managing periods of drawdown, on the other hand, was more challenging but after seeing consistent profits and successful trades, it simply went away.

The above and my previous two posts are solely based on my own experiences in retail forex trading, written with a view to share these experiences and are in no way to influence anyone in anyway.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #995,024
  • May 31, 2015 6:43am May 31, 2015 6:43am
Quoting taru
Managing drawdowns. Despite trading with the long-term trend, I saw almost all of my trades slip into drawdown till either they hit stoploss or I closed them manually. And invariably the market, after shaking me off, would resume the trend. This proved I was right with my entries but wrong with managing the trades. The internet is awash with free advice about never to trade without a stop loss and how to use a risk based hard stop loss, so I tried increasing the stop loss distance, reduce risk and a combination of both, to no great avail. Then a...
Rarely, but sometimes those drawdowns turn into a trend.
How do you manage that? I am asking because it has happened with me.
  • #995,025
  • May 31, 2015 6:47am May 31, 2015 6:47am
Quoting rjngh2005
{quote} Hi let us learn from each other The chart is of EUR/USD weekly chart Could you give us your comments about each weekly candle I have put up a image of weekly candle labeled as No 1 information is below open 1.0519 High 1.10387 Low 1.0496 close 1.0808 of course other members can give their comments also {image}
Thanks for your question. However, I'm sorry to disappoint you as I'm not an expert at individual candlesticks.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #995,026
  • May 31, 2015 6:49am May 31, 2015 6:49am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Its all in the chart, the rest is your money management
I totally agree.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #995,027
  • May 31, 2015 6:56am May 31, 2015 6:56am
Wonder how the people that longed EU @ 1.39xx feel about that method.
  • #995,028
  • May 31, 2015 7:02am May 31, 2015 7:02am
Quoting Pharm0r
Wonder how the people that longed EU @ 1.39xx feel about that method.
Was about to mention it, if you don't know to give up quickly your bad positions its almost the end

Adding to loser is a disaster without stops, but if it works on the long run for people i'd be curious to see it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #995,029
  • May 31, 2015 7:29am May 31, 2015 7:29am
Quoting TraderRaven7
{quote} Rarely, but sometimes those drawdowns turn into a trend. How do you manage that? I am asking because it has happened with me.
Thanks for your question. Of course even a weekly trend will finally change and reverse. Whenever it does, it signals a fundamental shift in the market for the foreseeable future. I'd close all trades whether in profit or loss and align any fresh trades with the new trend.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #995,030
  • May 31, 2015 7:34am May 31, 2015 7:34am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} When are you going to call it quit ....... or wait until the entire account wiped out or until you are 5,000 pips in profit ..... R:R = 1:1
Yes you are right because overleveraging is the commonest reason for blown accounts even if one is trading with the trend. That is why I mentioned the concept of account endurance that I had the privilege to learn by observing a professional trader.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #995,031
  • May 31, 2015 7:50am May 31, 2015 7:50am
Is it me- or have we had an abundance of people show up in the last month whom claim to have been taught from a professional trader?

I'm over here like, what are the criteria for that? If it's not a name from GS or the like....then I doubt it.

Wonder if this professional charged $99 a month via instagram/twitter/facebook to teach
  • #995,032
  • May 31, 2015 7:53am May 31, 2015 7:53am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} You side track the question below; when according to your professional will call it quit When are you going to call it quit ....... or wait until the entire account wiped out or until you are 5,000 pips in profit ..... R:R = 1:1
I've made it as simple as possible. Let me rephrase what I wrote:

1. Trade with the long-term trend with position sizes that allow your account to endure drawdowns.
2. If in a drawdown and trend is unchanged, scale in when market resumes the trend.
3. If in a drawdown and trend changes, close all trades.
4. Go to 1.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #995,033
  • May 31, 2015 7:57am May 31, 2015 7:57am
Quoting Pharm0r
Is it me- or have we had an abundance of people show up in the last month whom claim to have been taught from a professional trader? I'm over here like, what are the criteria for that? If it's not a name from GS or the like....then I doubt it. Wonder if this professional charged $99 a month via instagram/twitter/facebook to teach
Reread what I wrote. I "observed" what he did. He is a very respected, highly successful professional trader managing a large amount of money for many clients. Enough said.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #995,034
  • May 31, 2015 7:57am May 31, 2015 7:57am
Quoting taru
{quote} Reread what I wrote. I "observed" what he did. He is a very respected, highly successful professional trader managing a large amount of money for many clients. Enough said.
Absolutely, and I believe you 100%.
  • #995,035
  • May 31, 2015 8:01am May 31, 2015 8:01am
Quoting Ken A
Professionals don't trade their own money - worst can happen to them is getting fired
Actually that is what I used to think too till I came to know better. Your statement is nothing more than the regurgitated hearsay one commonly comes across on public threads.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #995,036
  • May 31, 2015 8:12am May 31, 2015 8:12am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} LOL Since you keep repeating trade with long term trend; What's your biggest pips per trade from day 1 until now; 500, 1,000, or above 3,000 pips Example of trading with long term trend: {image}
My biggest pips per trade is 292 pips.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #995,037
  • May 31, 2015 8:14am May 31, 2015 8:14am
Quoting Ratmach
{quote} Way back when, like in about 1st or 2nd grade, my teacher asked us the classic question: "Would you like it if someone gave you a penny, and then tomorrow took that one penny and gave you two pennies instead. Then the next day they'll double it again, giving you four pennies, and they keep doing that, doubling it every day for a month. OR instead of that, the person says they'll give you $1,000 right now. Which one would you do?" Most of the kids (I think me included if I remember right) chose the $1,000. Of course I quickly realized that...

Are you going to share how you do it? Maybe a few clues? No one will believe just talk.

Back from the dead * ding fries are done *
  • #995,038
  • May 31, 2015 8:16am May 31, 2015 8:16am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} You are trolling ... just look at your post few seconds ago - enough bullshit {quote}
How am I trolling when you issue a generalized statement like that. A trader WITH A JOB will lose his job. Correct. But what if a trader is self employed, trades his own money and lives off the profits? How can you put every professional trader in the same boat?
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #995,039
  • May 31, 2015 8:18am May 31, 2015 8:18am
IMO



" They " win never let the Euro fail completely... It would start world war 3 economically in Europe and the other places. I could be wrong of course.

This is just my opinion ... See you have to imagine what it would be like tomorrow if Greece went back to the old currency. The Euro on pure speculation alone would drop 50% against all pair.

They cant let this happen.

They will be bailed out again. and again and again

cheers Ryder
Back from the dead * ding fries are done *
  • #995,040
  • May 31, 2015 8:34am May 31, 2015 8:34am
Ryder, i would like to ask.. who will bail them out this time??? What greece borrowed they hav to pay back. The most possible outcome is the creditors will oni give them more time..
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