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  • #995,001
  • May 31, 2015 2:33am May 31, 2015 2:33am
Quoting TraderRaven7
{quote} Is that an agreement or disagreement with my statement..I cannot tell.
I think it's about the quote. Well, when you are wrong in the direction you are f..... . When you exit prematurely you may never make big profit but you don't lose also. Choose
  • #995,002
  • May 31, 2015 2:46am May 31, 2015 2:46am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} yup
D1 might fail

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #995,003
  • May 31, 2015 2:47am May 31, 2015 2:47am
When I started in forex, I went through all the steps newbies usually do. Along the way I tried virtually anything that is preached by the so-called pros and gurus. I found that except for trading with the long-term trend, rest was all bullshit. And even trading with the long term trend by itself was not enough. One by one, I discarded almost everything that is commonly said about technical analysis, fundamental analysis, money management, trade management, etc. The way to consistent profits is very different. Let me explain in the following posts.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #995,004
  • May 31, 2015 2:52am May 31, 2015 2:52am
Quoting kinspk
{quote} Bro, I am curious about your statement. So if you don't predict, that means you know where price will go in an exact certainty? And if you do, pls give us some tips, thanks!
I can clarify from my point of view. I know what I'm doing and I guess, based on scalpers name already, what he is doing. You can trade without prediction by only seeing what the price is doing. This is not easy, a lot of work and you cannot brag about your super trading style or about hundrets of pips you are looking for. Most here would not call this trading at all. It can be done with high probability to success. It will not make you rich though, IMO .

Best, V.
  • #995,005
  • May 31, 2015 3:01am May 31, 2015 3:01am
Quoting taru
When I started in forex, I went through all the steps newbies usually do. Along the way I tried virtually anything that is preached by the so-called pros and gurus. I found that except for trading with the long-term trend, rest was all bullshit. And even trading with the long term trend by itself was not enough. One by one, I discarded almost everything that is commonly said about technical analysis, fundamental analysis, money management, trade management, etc. The way to consistent profits is very different. Let me explain in the following posts....
Looking forward to read about your experience. Well, the trend. Nothing is as laggy as a trend, when it turns you are trading in the wrong direction for days and nothing is so respected as ( especially long term ) trends are. I try to aviod the need of trends by being in the markets for short times only.

Best, V,
  • #995,006
  • May 31, 2015 3:27am May 31, 2015 3:27am
Quoting taru
When I started in forex, I went through all the steps newbies usually do. Along the way I tried virtually anything that is preached by the so-called pros and gurus. I found that except for trading with the long-term trend, rest was all bullshit. And even trading with the long term trend by itself was not enough. One by one, I discarded almost everything that is commonly said about technical analysis, fundamental analysis, money management, trade management, etc. The way to consistent profits is very different. Let me explain in the following posts....
That is all true except the part about fundamentals. Data does not go bad overnight.
Fundamentals give you at the least a month's heads up before changing. It is up to you to see the signs that point to trend reversal or continuation.

Example: for the last 2 years USD data is good until december, but from jan-april(sometimes May) due to harsh winters the data is soft.
Then the economy picks up in Q2. It happened last year and is happening this year as well so far.

Technicals may change any time, fundamentals take time and that is for you to interpret as you choose.
  • #995,007
  • Edited 3:51am May 31, 2015 3:36am | Edited 3:51am
The long-term trend is the safest bet to make money in forex.

Why?
Because it represents the net effect of all the major forces in play like the central banks, the market makers and rest of the smart money. By aligning with the long-term trend, the chances of success increase and even sloppy entries are forgiven.

What exactly is the long-term trend?
Everyone may choose their own definition. For me it is the weekly trend. Of course there are longer periods than that, but from a retail forex trader's point of view, the monthly and yearly trends are just too long to be of any significant additional benefit.

Can it be quantified objectively?
Yes. In fact quite easily. There are many ways of doing this but what I have come up with is to put a standard MACD indicator on a weekly chart and change the settings from 9,26,12 to 20,200,20. An UP trend begins when the histogram ticks higher than the signal line while both are below the zero baseline. This is also the end of the DOWN trend. A DOWN trend begins when the histogram ticks lower than the signal line while both are above the zero baseline. This is also the end of the UP trend.

Is trading with the long-term trend enough to guarantee consistent profits?
No. As I'll show in a later post, the missing "secret ingredient" from my trading was something else. Unless I did that, consistent profits eluded me.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #995,008
  • May 31, 2015 3:48am May 31, 2015 3:48am
Hi I think this is a pull back to the broken lines and EURUSD is falling to the support trend line. after one week if there is a energy she can break the resistance trend line. good luck
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  • #995,009
  • May 31, 2015 4:02am May 31, 2015 4:02am
Quoting verified
{quote} I can clarify from my point of view. I know what I'm doing and I guess, based on scalpers name already, what he is doing. You can trade without prediction by only seeing what the price is doing. This is not easy, a lot of work and you cannot brag about your super trading style or about hundrets of pips you are looking for. Most here would not call this trading at all. It can be done with high probability to success. It will not make you rich though, IMO . Best, V.
Bro, thanks for your explanation. Actually I like to hear from his views, because I am a full time scalper. Yes, agreed that scalpers don't really need a clear direction, but by saying he don't predict is kinda of ridiculous, because trading is a probability business, where we enter our scalping trade, "predicting" it to move in that way according to your technical analysis, data research/collections, etc, if not, it will be a total gamble. The way he phrased it trying to infer he is different from the rest of the traders which i don't really agree, unless he is a losing scalper.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #995,010
  • Edited 4:09am May 31, 2015 4:07am | Edited 4:09am
Do we really know the impact of a rate hike? Do we really have that experience to forecast what will happen to the market during a rate hike?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...t-as-fed-looms

Past rate hike dates
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/st...s/fedrate.html

2006 rate hike marked on charts below:
Seems like even a rate hike not necessary will create a bear for EurUsd
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The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #995,011
  • May 31, 2015 4:43am May 31, 2015 4:43am
Quoting taru
No. As I'll show in a later post, the missing "secret ingredient" from my trading was something else. Unless I did that, consistent profits eluded me.

Your way of trading is probably working for you but it doesn't mean it'll work for others, we are all different

Everything someone has to know to trade is by looking at charts, so there is no "secret ingredient". Or you wanna share how Coca Cola is being made ?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #995,012
  • May 31, 2015 4:46am May 31, 2015 4:46am
Quoting kinspk
{quote} Bro, I am curious about your statement. So if you don't predict, that means you know where price will go in an exact certainty? And if you do, pls give us some tips, thanks!
I agree with him, and it doesn't mean he knows where it's heading

ITs more like react to what you see, don't predict it.

How many people you've seen here saying "it will go up until here, then down a bit before bouncing to the next resistance and reverse for good". How is that possible to predict so many moves ? Oh i've never seen someone saying something correct by the way

By reacting its more like you wait for the price to show you a setup and you go for it. You don't predict all the moves for the next few days, it doesn't make sense
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #995,013
  • May 31, 2015 4:55am May 31, 2015 4:55am
Quoting TraderRaven7
{quote} I am only writing this out of curiosity, not preaching or criticizing in any way. I used to think the same thing that in day trading or scalping I would miss out on pips hence, I used to hold my trades for days. Truth is day traders with scalping make up the pips they lose by closing trades too soon, how you ask?..during pullbacks or as you say drawdowns. Sure your strategy is working great for you but the way I see it you are missing out on all the pips during drawdowns, unless you add to your trades, which reminds me of something I read...
Hi TraderRaven7
FxTyrant is doing what has worked for him. He is a respected SuperTrader who has time and again demonstrated his expertise.
You can check his trade list on his trade explorer or see his recent screen shot of his Live account. I think he has 15 years experience.
If you like what he does ...follow him. But my suggestion is that you first make a 100 Thousand usd before giving advice to someone who has a 250,000 account.
  • #995,014
  • May 31, 2015 4:59am May 31, 2015 4:59am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Your way of trading is probably working for you but it doesn't mean it'll work for others, we are all different Everything someone has to know to trade is by looking at charts, so there is no "secret ingredient". Or you wanna share how Coca Cola is being made ?
Why you don't let him speak ? You have your experience, he has his experience. I appreciate what he shares and i'd like to know more than what you think I need to know ... who are you that you can say what I should know and what I don't need to know ?
  • #995,015
  • May 31, 2015 5:08am May 31, 2015 5:08am
Quoting rjngh2005
{quote} Hi TraderRaven7 FxTyrant is doing what has worked for him. He is a respected SuperTrader who has time and again demonstrated his expertise. You can check his trade list on his trade explorer or see his recent screen shot of his Live account. I think he has 15 years experience. If you like what he does ...follow him. But my suggestion is that you first make a 100 Thousand usd before giving advice to someone who has a 250,000 account.
Learn to read first, I am not giving any advice, just stating my opinion regarding trend and scalping.
Even if I do make 250,000 I would not be showing it off so that I can have fanatics like you follow me.
Read what I wrote again before making stupid comments and wasting time.
  • #995,016
  • May 31, 2015 5:09am May 31, 2015 5:09am
Quoting taru
The long-term trend is the safest bet to make money in forex. Why? Because it represents the net effect of all the major forces in play like the central banks, the market makers and rest of the smart money. By aligning with the long-term trend, the chances of success increase and even sloppy entries are forgiven. What exactly is the long-term trend? Everyone may choose their own definition. For me it is the weekly trend. Of course there are longer periods than that, but from a retail forex trader's point of view, the monthly and yearly trends are...
Hi let us learn from each other
The chart is of EUR/USD weekly chart
Could you give us your comments about each weekly candle
I have put up a image of weekly candle labeled as No 1
information is below
open 1.0519
High 1.10387
Low 1.0496
close 1.0808

of course other members can give their comments also
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_weekly.png Size: 32 KB
  • #995,017
  • May 31, 2015 5:10am May 31, 2015 5:10am
Quoting verified
{quote} Why you don't let him speak ? You have your experience, he has his experience. I appreciate what he shares and i'd like to know more than what you think I need to know ... who are you that you can say what I should know and what I don't need to know ?
Is it my fault if you can't a read and wait for other to tell you their "secrets" unreaveled to the public ?

I'm just saying there is no secrets at all. Its all in the chart, the rest is your money management
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #995,018
  • May 31, 2015 5:10am May 31, 2015 5:10am
Quoting johnsmart
You cannot trust literally what Greek government officials say. They cannot say anything but optimistic things about repayment to its creditors. They need to calm down Greek national worries and prevent deposits from flowing out of Greek banks.
Withdrawals are already restricted to 100 EUR / day.

I keep looking to the downside. The current price action has barely any steam, the APB's are very small on the H1.
H4 looks more bullish but we are at a resistance level that could signal a reversal.
Daily is still bearish but also shows signs of a reversal, however if we stay below 1.1040 - 1.1060 the coming day(s) I believe it won't take long before we see new lows.
Of course I have somewhat of a bias due to my short @1.09001. But that is how I see it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.UD_PA.jpg Size: 617 KB
  • #995,019
  • May 31, 2015 5:13am May 31, 2015 5:13am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Is it my fault if you can't a read and wait for other to tell you their "secrets" unreaveled to the public ? I'm just saying there is no secrets at all. Its all in the chart, the rest is your money management
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #995,020
  • May 31, 2015 5:18am May 31, 2015 5:18am
Whether Greece does a deal or defaults, the prospects seem equally grim
Sunday 31 May 2015 09.00 BST
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-grim-eurozone
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