USD/JPY Discussion

Yes, diamonds and other tradable formations have to be large enough for positions to be taken within their boundaries. I personally cannot trade on timeframes lower than 30min. 4H is my favourite tf.

By the way, what looked like it may become a bearish diamond (could be seen in the 15min timeframe most clearly) seems to have got 'busted' overnight. I woke up to see that move below to 123.60 again and that makes the 'diamond' look odd.

ItWasAtrap

US employment costs are rising.
US existing home sales are up (pumps the money circulation).
Rate rise is coming.

It could have something to do with this...

It was indeed, my fellow Greek! I love bearish and bullish trap setups. They make for non-stop one-directional moves that offer very good Risk-Reward

Welcome to the Last Friday of the Month & Good Luck!

Today's S/R Levels on MT4 Templates

EURO
CABLE
USDJPY
GOLD

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30#post8290830

EURO PINK
CABLE PINK

Time table and schedule of U.S. Dollar Funds-Supplying Operations
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcement...rel150529d.pdf

=USD/JPY rising-schedule

if including current 2 green segments, totally 15 green segments.
if each segment go up about 2.8 yens on average, 15x2.8=42 yens.
119+42=161 yens (about)
year 1990 level USD/JPY= 161 yens (about).

This time-table is only up to 3Sept2015 which implies Sept USA rate-hike at least after 3Sept2015?


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Outline of Outright Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcement...rel150529e.pdf
******

USDJPY trades at an important support level, breaking which it could plunge to 123 levels. US GDP awaited.

Good opportunity for long trade (already covered many aggresive entries , if the price suddenly revers I will lose 0%) :



I'm sorry, was the USD/CAD

it is weak today again. what the fuck?

A negative GDP will initiate a nosedive to 123, imo.

Everyone is talking about a bad GDP, but will the figure be rigged to be a favourable one and be adjusted in the next quarter?

Sorry, was the USD/CAD, I thought I am at USD/CAD topic

Head & Shoulders Dandruff pattern.. how will it unfold?

Sorry not following you. Are you saying you look at trends of 15m or 30m within 4H?

sorry for not being clear: I look at trends in all time frames from 30min upwards and I trade from the 30min up to the weekly, but my favourite timeframe is the 4h. There is no special reason for that, other than the fact that it allows me to take trades with decent rewards without having to be at the PC 24/7, although I do tend to monitor the market continuously, certainly during London and NY sessions.

I look at the trend in the timeframe that I am taking the trade on and manage TPs accordingly.

For example, if I take a long on the 30min timeframe then in that timeframe, price has to be either trending up or be at the bottom of the range, if the market is ranging. I may be making it more complicated than it sounds but basically I look to enter with the trend of the timeframe I am on or, if we're in a range, assume the range will hold and trade accordingly.

My TP is at least 2x risk and the SL will usually be the low of the candle that preceded my entry. So if the trade is taken in the 30min timeframe, for example, the SL will be something like 10-30pips depending on the currency, the 1st TP will be at least 2x that.

If the market is trending on the higher timeframes as well, then I will adjust the TP levels accordingly, so that my 2nd, 3rd TPs and so on, are given more room to run. In other words, if I entered long on the 30min timeframe but the 4h and daily are also trending up, my 2nd , 3rd TPs might be 100 or hundreds of pips away from entry price. But my 1st TP is always at least 2x initial risk.

It is not complicated I think. It is basically trend trading and range trading, attempting to have the odds stacked on to my trade's side, rather than against them.

I will only take counter-trend positions if 1) I see a formation like a diamond that offers very well-defined and good R/R (at least 3x risk) and 2) the kind of price action I constantly look for, which is based on the highs and lows of candles. It doesn't happen often.

As we all know, trading for a living is a marathon where probabilities rule. If I do the best I can to have the probabilities stacked on my side, such as avoid selling in bull trends, avoid buying the tops of ranges in bear trends and selling the bottoms of ranges in bull trends, the market will usually take care of the rest, especially if TP is at least 2x risk.

WHAT THE FUCK?

fixing and of the month and possibly 5 wave up

hello, just sharing nice EW count - last motive wave 5 with extension on wave 3. seems like we get one more push up to complete wave 5 as Dano12 says, which should "finish" the huge uptrend count 1...5 starting from September 2014.

so it looks, but it can go down even lower for wave 4

Oh yes, definitely. That wave 4 looks like mess much more than any EW structure. Plus I would not be suprised if it created some kind of tranctuation for wave 5 since we are just sitting on big resistence = June 2007 high.

Maybe one "theoretical" question Dano12 - I see you use (or at least post) EW usually on price, which is not lower than H1 TF. It seems to me that the "messy moves" under H1 prevent from any reasonable Elliot wave analysis under H1. What is your opinion on that? Since I bet you have more exp.... you think it is anyhow reasonable/reliable to make the counts on lower than H1 TF? (Of course, like with any analysis, the higher TF the better - but in this specific case of EW?)