News trading discussion - continuation

US Core CPI
Expected Market Reaction
A deviation on this release will have a massive impact on all the major pairs. We will be using the high and low estimates to gauge the significance of any deviation. Both the Core and the Total CPI are equally important, however the Fed do prefer to look at the Core figure at times of oil price volatility. The Core can give a truer reading on underlying price trends. A positive deviation will provide a selling opportunity in EURUSD or NZDUSD as these currencies have bearish issues going on in the background (debt crisis and potential cut). A negative deviation will provide a good trade long GBPUSD as GBP is still looking to raise rates in the next 12 months.

Wednesday
17:00
05/27/15
CA overnight rate BC
(CA Overnight Rate), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.

On what stream link , do you follow the results live ?

vvfish, what is your broker? In every post, there is no slippage, no gap?How do you trade EIA inventory as the spike is most of the time not very important? thanks

Thursday
11:30
28/05/15
GB revised GDP growth
(GB Second Estimate GDP), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
28/05/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

At 11:00 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.
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Analysts Forecast 1.1 Million-Barrel Fall in Crude Stocks

U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to ease in weekly data due Thursday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 11 analysts and traders surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have fallen by 1.1 million barrels, on average, in the week ended May 22.

Four analysts expect stockpiles rose and seven expect a decline in the week. Forecasts range from a fall of 3 million barrels to a rise of 1.9 million barrels.

The survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 11 a.m. EDT Thursday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to have fallen by 1 million barrels, according to analysts. Seven analysts expect a decline and four expect stockpiles grew. Estimates range from a drop of 3.8 million barrels to a rise of 1 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to have decreased by 400,000 barrels. Six analysts expect a decline, while four see a rise and one expects no change. Forecasts range from a drop of 2 million barrels to a gain of 1 million barrels.

Refinery use is seen to have climbed 0.2 percentage point to 92.6% of capacity, based on EIA data. Six analysts expect an increase, two expect a decline, two expect no change and one didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from an increase of 1 percentage point to a 1 percentage point decline.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is scheduled to release its inventory data for the same period later Wednesday.


Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital 0.5 -2.0 -1.0 0.4
Citi Futures Perspective -2.5 1.0 1.0 0.5
Confluence Investment Management -1.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.7
Energy Management Institute -2.6 1.0 1.0 0.4
Excel Futures 1.1 0.8 0.2 -0.3
IAF Advisors 0.5 0.5 0 n.a.
Oil Outlooks -2.0 -2.0 -1.75 0
Price Futures Group -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 1.0
Ritterbusch & Associates 1.9 -0.8 0.3 0
Schneider Electric -2.0 -2.5 -0.8 0.1
Tradition Energy -2.5 -3.8 -0.5 -1.0

AVERAGE -1.1 -1.0 -0.4 0.2

*******************************************************

Good luck everybody!

He will not reply , caused you are talking to a robot hahah.

Everyone gets an answer to your question in personal messages.

Friday
10:30
05/29/15
SE GDP growth
(SE GDP), Sweden, EURSEK
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
23% probability trades.

Friday
15:30
05/29/15
The revised US GDP data
(US Prelim GDP), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% chance of trading

Thoughts on "smart traders"

The foundation at the entrance to the summer 2015


When it will hold a referendum on the UK exit from the Eurozone? Whether Greece will pay the next tranche of the IMF. What will the FOMC at its meeting in June? Will the Reserve Bank of Australia policy of lowering interest rates? We understand what we are entering the summer.
Euros
In a nutshell about the EU this spring, then: QE stimulus program by the European Central Bank shows the results and the Greek issue continues to drift on the handbrake. These are the two main topics of concern to the markets.
Now the focus will be aimed at the fulfillment by Greece of its obligations to creditors, particularly the sharp points will be falls on the date of the planned repayment.
Varufakis, Greek Finance Minister assured that the major has already smoothed the rough edges, and the situation is getting better every day, but this is not enough, because the main thing - the result.
This Lagarde (head of the International Monetary Fund) says: "Out of Greece from the euro zone is possible," and further notes that in this situation, the economic risk is less than the political: "This can not but affect the Euro, but the political component is expressed to a greater extent because the probability of this fact may undermine the credibility of the eurozone. "
What
The index of consumer prices in some countries has already shown rollback of deflationary processes. Probably, the problem of deflation, as they say "relieved." Gradually begins to believe in the words of support to the program Mario Draghi as an ardent fan QE.
In May, Greece repaid the debt to the IMF in the amount of 750 million euros per day until the end of the prescribed period.
What will happen
In June, Greece must pay to the Fund about $ 2 billion, and it is likely that this tranche is not repaid ills, and that's just in June of the current international financial assistance program for Greece runs out. It may smell stronger default. Accordingly, at the entrance of the summer it will be the main theme for the EUR.
Dollar
Someone asked do we have here the question of why the month of May - a rise in the dollar, which in fact actually happened, despite the transfer of the expectations the Fed raising interest rates, the dollar strengthened against its major opponents.
The US economy continued a series of publications weak labor market, and the rest of the statistics are not very happy with the optimists, it is worth remembering: weak retail sales, low component of the consumer price index, weak data estimate the GDP growth of the first quarter, and the rest on a trifle ... Not without dragging fundamental blankets aside bulls, so more optimistic data brings durable goods orders, the real estate sector, but this is not enough.
It seems that we do before September 2015 will not see the desired increase in the interest rate the Fed.
What
May began with a weak data Non-Farm Payrolls, and proceeded quite sluggish for US publications. The main drivers were interviewed top officials make speeches and FOMC Fed reaction to that, and symbolized the imminent approach of monetary policy changes in the vector controller.
What will happen
In June, will take place on the "notorious" meeting FOMC, which they say the markets since the beginning of the year. Now do not expect the rate will be raised at the meeting, but the text of the protocol can be quite interesting at this moment the markets are waiting, perhaps, finally stabilized.
Pound
Pound survived the parliamentary elections in the UK, in tandem with the publication of the annual consumer price index, and were the main events of May.
Won the Conservative Party led by David Cameron, after an audience with the Prime Minister to the Queen, he said he intends to keep his promise - to hold a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU. Another test for the Euro zone and another stress, such as for EUR, and for GBP. The truth is planned to hold a referendum, "as much as" to the end of 2017.
In the UK, for the first time since 1960, deflation at an annual rate. The consumer price index decreased by -0.1% over the year. It is estimated that by European standards, inflation below zero was not observed in the UK since 1960. Thus the indicator has gone far 'below' target for inflation set by the Bank of England (2%), which requires that Mark Carney writing a letter explaining to the Minister of Finance. Panic about this is not observed, since the regulator has repeatedly predicted this course of events, and it is expected that by the end of 2015, inflation will return to positive territory, although it does not exceed 1%.
What
Consumer price index -0.1% yoy, indicating that deflation in the country.
In the parliamentary elections won Kemeron and therefore a referendum on leaving the EU to be.
Retail sales showed fairly strong growth.
What will happen
We are waiting for new details on inflation, interesting information from the Bank of England. Will there be any way to act? Or they are confident in their forecasts?
Aussie
In May, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate from 2.25% to 2.0%. Moreover, its policy remains soft, and therefore a historic low for the rate of 2.0%, probably too early to call the "historic". Issued the following weak labor market data completely support this conclusion, a barrier can act as a low level of AUDUSD, which may be to the taste for the RBA. However, the May protocols Regulator leaves the door open to further decrease.
It was
The interest rate has been reduced by an additional 0.25%
The labor market showed weak growth.
Minutes of the RBA remains soft controller is prone to further easing.
Will be
Next week we will have a new meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the data of quarterly GDP growth.
The markets will continue to discuss the timing and likelihood of further easing.
Canada and New Zealand Dollar
With New Zealander and Canada is much easier, of course, they are able to bring their own surprise the markets, but it is about this is not necessary. New Zealand does not follow the example of a neighbor, while they on a soft policy, however. Canada fully satisfies the previous interest rate cut, the Fed and the noise around and did translate it into standby mode.

Monday
11:30
01/06/15
GB industry activity index GOOD
(GB Manufacturing PMI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Monday
17:00
01/06/15
US ISM index of business optimism
(US ISM Manufacturing PMI), USA, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Tuesday
7:30
06/02/15
AU Interest HOT!
(AU Cash Rate), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 55.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Tuesday
11:30
06/02/15
GB index of business activity in the construction sector
(GB Construction PMI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

First trade of June