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The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,321
  • May 27, 2015 12:24pm May 27, 2015 12:24pm
Quoting The Fool
does anybody know when the tweet for the announcement of the miraculous saving of Greece will come out?
Came about a few years ago, and about every 3 months since
  • #135,322
  • May 27, 2015 12:31pm May 27, 2015 12:31pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,323
  • May 27, 2015 12:35pm May 27, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} No problem, MissPips btw which indi are you using for quarterly candles? I tried LargeTimeFrame & CustomCandle6 didn't workout
m-candles, but I had to modify it.
  • #135,324
  • Edited May 28, 2015 2:53am May 27, 2015 1:12pm | Edited May 28, 2015 2:53am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Probably would. My personal opinion is that they're going to keep kicking the can down the road on both Greece and the interest rates for a good long while, which should keep us stuck in a wide (1000 pip) range for a good long while. And you know what they like to do in a range.....
...was ruminating about the third test of that trendline and i realized both of our view can be valid, its just the matter of time if you know what i mean.
Edit:
At about 2015.06.14-16. the ascending trendline will rise above the 2015.04.21/31. double bottom (1.06660 - Lucifer )
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,325
  • May 28, 2015 2:02am May 28, 2015 2:02am
EurUsd AB=CD ~ finished:
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,326
  • May 28, 2015 2:17am May 28, 2015 2:17am
Quoting hathor
EurUsd AB=CD ~ finished: {image} {image}
Nice job!
  • #135,327
  • May 28, 2015 2:26am May 28, 2015 2:26am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Nice job!
Thank You!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,328
  • May 28, 2015 2:46am May 28, 2015 2:46am
Quoting hathor
{quote} ...was ruminating about the third test of that trendline and i realized both of our view can be valid, its just the matter of time if you know what i mean. At about 2015.06.14-16. the ascending trendline will rise above the 2015.04.21/31. double bottom (1.06660 - Lucifer )
Yeah, I'm thinking they could go for it then or even next week. As long as they don't close the week below the double bottom they could take it out just for the stops, to load up for the bounce to the top trendline without moving price too much against them while they do it. That's what I'm going to be watching for. Probably not going to happen this week - month end flows.
  • #135,329
  • May 28, 2015 3:10am May 28, 2015 3:10am
Quoting MissPips
..... it's not true at true tops and bottoms as far as I can see and I've been trading for much longer than the current downtrend. The bottoming structures just take longer to form than the tops and look different, especially on the higher timeframes....
I disagree with you on that technical view. Actually quite the opposite is my view. The last major top took 4 years to solve while the same relevant TF floor took a bit less than 1 year ...

Quote
If you define a swing as a higher high, higher low (or vice versa) which then continues on to become a real trend... if you draw a fib from that high of the spike to the lower low, the next lower high never gets back to 55% of that swing,at least ....

There are 2 main issues I see with your arguments and I am more than happy to discuss and we can open the floor for others for an extended conversation during off peak times.

 

  1. First you maybe taken your technicals out context from the main picture/direction (you can use Fundamentals and/ or more appropriate Technicals for this). Trying to (chart fitting/curve fitting, indicator fitting, etc) in one size fit all and in exact science framework requires a stronger and more complex approach than just using a FIB from swing to swing.

  1. Second and probably closer to what I think you are trying to achieve with all these fibs/mofus and etc conversation is that IMHO, you are making a lot of technical mistakes in pinning some of those swings. Basically you are connecting unrelated swings (TFs wise) and thats why some of your retracements look off....don't forget that:

    1. => "not all smaller TFs swings CAN be seen in a larger TFs, while ALL larger TF swings can be seen in the smaller Tfs"...that is why is so easy to make mistakes defining major direction in smaller TFs because its very common to get lost in translation in a web of unrelated swings...

---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------

In any case, will discuss later.... for now Greece providing a good excuse for profit taking before key GDP and W/M closes. For the rest of the session, intraday chop zone 1.094x / 1.087x on the making and we officially will enter in choose your poison time in the NY session with a major mover and shaker in play tomorrow....

Until then, tracking same range (1.079x / 1.096x) with intraday chop zone in the middle until the M roll is solved....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,330
  • May 28, 2015 4:19am May 28, 2015 4:19am
Two facts:
2015.05.03-10. Weekly low is at 1.10664.
2015.05.20. Daily low is at 1.10621.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,331
  • Edited 4:48am May 28, 2015 4:31am | Edited 4:48am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I disagree with you on that technical view. Actually quite the opposite is my view. The last major top took 4 years to solve while the same relevant TF floor took a bit less than 1 year ... {quote} There are 2 main issues I see with your arguments and I am more than happy to discuss and we can open the floor for others for an extended conversation during off peak times. First you maybe taken your technicals out context from the main picture/direction
(. ...that is why is so easy to make...
On the monthly it took four years. On the daily you never got a retrace to that area after the momentum bar until the next weekly swing up. If you are using that four year period as the top , then I'd argue that we haven't even begun to form the bottom of that swing yet. Looking at the weekly the double top high there was formed from about 4.06. 08 to the momentum bar on 7.27.08 (3 and a half months ) and the double bottom for the swing back up from 10.26.08 to the momentum bar on 03.15.09 (almost 5 months). (One of my filters for swings to tops/bottoms is I need to see momentum)

This is true. This is why Gator says the short term lies. But if you check the live calls I've made in the thread for where bounces /tops are going to happen and places that price is targeting at least that place, you'll see that the swing areas have all been accurate within a 5-10 pip margin for error -except the call for 1480 as the top - that was off by 13. Still not too bad, so in my experience even the short term ones work usually pretty good at least up to the 150 mofo, as long as you take them for what they're worth. (These are all short term swings, because I'm a short term trader - will trade for as little as 10-12 pips as long as I haven't risked more than that, but they were still good for green pips).

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post8286560 (price was 0831 when this was posted, called for bounce between there (831) and 25, bounced at 19.5 ( off by 5 pips and still bouncing)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post8285171 - price was 0866, when posted on 10.26, predicted price would at least complete the 150 mofo area (0836) based on the momentum in the fib, which it did

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34#post8272734 May 20th 9:48 predicted bounce at 1066-62 (with price at 1070 when posted, price goes down to 1061 and bounces 80 pips)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post8261670 May 14th at 11:22 called 1440 as an intermediate top. Price hits 1444 at 13:34 and bounces 120. (Predicted 1480 as ultimate top, price only gets to 1467 as ultimate top)


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post8247682 May 6th 16:44 with price at 1290 replied PharmOr's no break /no shake comment that PA is targeting at least 1330 (which it hits)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post8224841 April 23, called top for day 835/45. Top for day is 845.

These were all live calls that were made a few minutes/hours prior to price doing what was predicted.
Interested to discuss further when convenient, especially philosophy of short term vs long term trading. ( For me it's just much easier to predict what will happen in the next few minutes/hours than days, weeks because fewer things can intervene to change the outlook, because there's just less time for those things to happen in.)
  • #135,332
  • Edited 5:15am May 28, 2015 4:39am | Edited 5:15am
Quoting hathor
Two facts: 2015.05.03-10. Weekly low is at 1.10664. 2015.05.20. Daily low is at 1.10621.
The average is at 1.10642

+0.01243

Flip point is at 1.09399

-0.01204

Bottom is at 1.08195
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,333
  • May 28, 2015 4:46am May 28, 2015 4:46am
Quoting hathor
Two facts: 2015.05.03-10. Weekly low is at 1.10664. 2015.05.20. Daily low is at 1.10621.
1066 is also where the 50 MA on the daily chart is.
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  • #135,334
  • Edited 5:14am May 28, 2015 4:56am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} 1066 is also where the 50 MA on the daily chart is.

Many thing points to that level, but cracking today's low is also in the cards. The chances are growing with every pull-backed daily high.

In this case, my plan is:
- If the low is broken in the red square, than buying in the grey triangle.
- The closer to the (lower) purple triangle...the better.
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f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,335
  • May 28, 2015 5:28am May 28, 2015 5:28am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Many thing points to that level, but cracking today's low is also in the cards. The chances are growing with every pull-backed daily high. In this case, my plan is: - If the low is broken in the red square, than buying in the grey triangle. - The closer to the (lower) purple triangle...the better. {image}
For me we have an ambiguous situation now. We have a higher high on the hourly which says to me we might make a higher low somewhere before 816 and then at least one more higher high. BUT we had a big swing down with lots of momentum on the H4, which says to me that that won't be the last low. So I'd rather look for shorts between 1060 and 1170 if I can find a good setup. Of course we have to go higher on the hourly to get there first, but although I see the potential for a bottoming pattern to form here and make a higher tf swing up, usually they take it almost back to the very low first, so I'm not so happy longing until we get nearer there.
  • #135,336
  • Edited 7:01am May 28, 2015 6:27am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Many thing points to that level, but cracking today's low is also in the cards. The chances are growing with every pull-backed daily high. In this case, my plan is: - If the low is broken in the red square, than buying in the grey triangle. - The closer to the (lower) purple triangle...the better. {image}
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Waiting for a spiky H1 close...than trapped shorts can be erased with new high.

Edit: no spike
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,337
  • May 28, 2015 6:33am May 28, 2015 6:33am
Quoting hathor
{quote} {image} Waiting for a spiky H1 close...than trapped shorts can be erased with new high.
so u bought? , mr hathor .... still purple triangle didnt get its visit ...
Om Namah Shivaayae
  • #135,338
  • May 28, 2015 7:15am May 28, 2015 7:15am
Quoting annunaki
{quote} so u bought? , mr hathor .... still purple triangle didnt get its visit ...
Well...yes, I bought under the red square. But I don't advise to follow this view, it can fail easily.
The lower triangle was there just in case of cracked C point (AB=CD), therefore it could act as new entry point.
Not a good level to enter the market, due to coming news. Should be in already from lower/higher.
But because it was my plan since yesterday, and everything works accordingly...well I give it a scalp.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,339
  • May 28, 2015 8:07am May 28, 2015 8:07am
Quoting sisse
...For the rest of the session, intraday chop zone 1.094x / 1.087x on the making and we officially will enter in choose your poison time in the NY session with a major mover and shaker in play tomorrow....
​ V slightly negative headline but basically inline with expectations numbers and back to square one. Here we go for NY. As expected 1.094x held the european morning and we are sitting at 1.087x for NY open.

We are officially entering in major decision time for a KEY W/M combo. Dusting intraday/session charts to get in synch with short term flows and tracking very closely Euro in the next few session for taking a side. Tomorrow we have a major release to confirm (or not) the slowdown of the US economy before settling what can be the most important M/W roll until the summer ends (for the next swing leg we have yearly high, Q high and low in play, and major mid term swing in play !!!...uff there is a lot juice in play).

For the next session 1.086x (has been forming as the key level since last week) as key level to track (potential intraday flip level for the news play tomorrow too)....

GL all planning to trade or already trading the next leg...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,340
  • May 28, 2015 9:17am May 28, 2015 9:17am
Quoting hathor
{quote} {image} Waiting for a spiky H1 close...than trapped shorts can be erased with new high. Edit: no spike
Magic..however I doubt it can crack the spike.
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f(z)=z2+c
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