The Really Useless Thread | Page 6766 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,301
  • May 27, 2015 4:24am May 27, 2015 4:24am
Quoting hathor
{quote} True..
Well of course since this is Q1 it's also 25% of the yearly move....
  • #135,302
  • May 27, 2015 4:25am May 27, 2015 4:25am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Interesting results for the Quarterly candles. Look where it bounced. Right on at 25% of last Q. Thanks, Sisi, for this idea of looking at things from a quarterly view! {image}
Q charts are the cleanest, easiest and best charts to read for long term analysis.

Quoting MissPips
....For some reason, this seems to work better for a down fib setup with the trend in a downtrend, ....I can never understand why (since EURUSD is a two-sided instrument and when you buy one you sell the other) but for some reason PA at tops is different than PA at bottoms. A lot of time at tops ...Maybe its because of the correlations/risk on-risk off activity.
Interesting observations but a couple of points there. In stocks and in commodities in general it has been always different flows in a downtrend than in an uptrend. The limitations for openly short selling stocks and or the inherit demand for basic commodities (especially before all the new fancy derivates) always make the moves down deeper (less retraces) than the uptrends.

In downtrends, there is no such a thing on betting slowly in waves down because of the implications of the free fall in an underlying so basically there is usually v quick and deep legs while in and uptrend investors want to buy value and cash profit, making smoother and more measurable waves...rinsing and repeating until a top is found.

While in currencies things are a bit different, because there is no limitations on the underlying to sell or buy (as long as a CB doesnt put a band/top/floor). The flows that you are perceiving are made basically out of 2 main points in a pair such as the Eur/usd:

  1. The main trend;
  2. and interest differentials (or carry trade)

When the main macro direction is up (as the one we had until 2008) the daily floes/waves/legs in general will be the opposite, large moves up with less retrace. That is the nature of a trend. Thats why now in a major downtrend you are seeing the opposite flows.

However, and probably the most important factor for deep or shallow corrections in daily/intraday legs/waves is the short term rate differentials that makes very large and speculative money to jump from the higher interest yield currency to the other to gain short term and fast profits on the differentials. Thats why you can have steep uptrends/downtrends that goes very choppy (deeper retraces) to one side (e.g carry trade) while very large and fast to the other side.(shallow retraces)...

------------------ ------------------ --------------

As expected in the euro, nothingness was the name of the game since Europe went home yesterday. Nothing new on sight until Friday important news for the W/M close combo so same levels in play until then.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,303
  • Edited 7:17am May 27, 2015 5:32am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting sisse
{quote} When the main macro direction is up (as the one we had until 2008) the daily floes/waves/legs in general will be the opposite, large moves up with less retrace. That is the nature of a trend. Thats why now in a major downtrend you are seeing the opposite flows..
Thanks for your comments. However, the part in red is not the case, at least for what I'm talking about. While it's true that up retraces are more shallow in a downtrend (and vice versa), it's not true at true tops and bottoms as far as I can see and I've been trading for much longer than the current downtrend. The bottoming structures just take longer to form than the tops and look different, especially on the higher timeframes. If you define a swing as a higher high, higher low (or vice versa) which then continues on to become a real trend, and you look on a daily chart going back as far as you like, and you put a fib on those, you will see that in the upswings, more often than not you DO get a retrace to at least the 55.9 level of 50/mofu area, and often right back near the bottom before it turns. In the downswings, more often than not, at the actual final top you get what looks to it's going to be a swing, and then you get a fakeout spike just above that taking out the stops, and then if you draw a fib from that high of the spike to the lower low, the next lower high never gets back to 55% of that swing,at least with the EURUSD on the higher timeframes.

The only reason I can think of is that because the USD is considered a safe place to park money, that when it's risk off, the move is much more violent because all the markets are in panic mode and everyone's rushing to buy USD, whereas when markets are recovering, a bottom takes much longer to form and masses are not rushing to use other currencies as the funding currencies against USD. These are just two examples, but this is typical of what gets repeated most times. (So often, in fact, that when I see a retrace back to the 50 area in a downswing, it makes me suspect that this is not the final high and when I see a lower low and a lower high that fails to hit the fifty area, and then price taking out that lower low after failing to hit 50, it gives me more certainty that at least 150 is going to get hit.).

Case in point is the latest one. On the 4 hour timeframe, we have that swing that looks like a top (H&S) followed by an exhaustion spike taking out all the H&S guys, and then failure to hit the 50 to the 4 hour downside and then price taking out the LL all the way down to 150, leaving all the h&s guys cursing. On the daily upside fib (and I don't know if it's going to be a base for a swing up or not) we do have a higher high and we have come back and hit the 50 area.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lastbottom.jpg Size: 1,005 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: lasttop.jpg Size: 876 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: case in point.jpg Size: 833 KB
  • #135,304
  • May 27, 2015 7:25am May 27, 2015 7:25am
On my charts, the correction won't happen before 1.072x (if we have bad GDP on Friday)
Lots of compressed levels that can be easily absorbed (keep watching the PA).
GL all and we'll see how things turn out
  • #135,305
  • May 27, 2015 7:40am May 27, 2015 7:40am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} good for at least the 150 mofo. (I'm a short term scalper, remember so I'm just looking to sell tops/tap backs while it does that, and I don't sell them blind - I wait for a PA signal). For some reason, this seems to work better for a down fib setup with the trend in a downtrend, than vice versa. I can never understand why (since EURUSD is a two-sided instrument and when you buy one you sell the other) but for some reason PA at tops is different than PA at bottoms. A lot of time at tops you get so much momentum that you...
Well there, it just did the 150 mofo. Might bounce a bit between here and 0825 but probably good for the 175 (0757) line later.
  • #135,306
  • Edited 10:31am May 27, 2015 8:06am | Edited 10:31am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} No, not according to the 'orthodox mofo trading' as I understand it. But I'm sort of a 'reform' mofu trader...
Got that, I often look for similar levels that don't quiet pass the orthodox test, mostly mids of weekly/monthly ranges..
there is a similar st setup I'm eyeing atm 1.0816 is the midpoint to target

edit: the chart below doesn't make much sense technically
Attached Image
  • #135,307
  • May 27, 2015 8:23am May 27, 2015 8:23am
Here we go for NY. Soft and wave bottom blind catchers stops getting easily run before the open. Early day close widely expected in the euro after London close today with euro about to enter in key area for the M/W roll for the "choose your poison time" one more time.

Tracking very closely 1.079x for today roll for completing the current v. nice leg from the highs. Flat here so not much to do until further developments....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,308
  • May 27, 2015 9:06am May 27, 2015 9:06am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Well there, it just did the 150 mofo. Might bounce a bit between here and 0825 but probably good for the 175 (0757) line later.
Well, off by 5 pips, but not a bad bounce. I don't think that's as low as it's going -I still think this fib run is probably good for at least the 175 level at 757 eventually, on the next swing down. Due to the ADR, might need until tomorrow for it.
  • #135,309
  • May 27, 2015 9:14am May 27, 2015 9:14am
Current low is (1.08195) the same as April's last weeks low (1.08195)..to the pipette.
[April's last weekly candle + breakout candle...]
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,310
  • Edited 9:26am May 27, 2015 9:14am | Edited 9:26am
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} Got that, I often look for similar levels that don't quiet pass the orthodox test, mostly mids of weekly/monthly ranges.. there is a similar st setup I'm eyeing atm 1.0816 is the midpoint to target {image}
Nice. On your chart is one thing I don't get about the way the rest of you all trade the mofus. For me, a swing has to start at the top or bottom of a run. That is, there has to have been a run up (or down) and then a LH LL or HH, HL for me to put the fib on, preferably with divergence on the last high at the top or low at the bottom, and also preferably with some other characteristics of a swing (like an exhaustion spike at the top or a ranging at the bottom.) If you don't mind my asking, what is your thinking/logic when you put one like the one you have on that chart?
  • #135,311
  • May 27, 2015 9:24am May 27, 2015 9:24am
Quoting hathor
Current low is (1.08195) the same as April's last weeks low (1.08195)..to the pipette. [April's last weekly candle + breakout candle...]
True. On the weekly I'm looking at this though, expecting a third test of the trendline
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wk1.jpg Size: 458 KB
  • #135,312
  • May 27, 2015 9:27am May 27, 2015 9:27am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} what is your thinking/logic when you put one like the one you have on that chart?
Honestly, I got messed up with levels, I posted a different chart than the one I intended to, the one I intended was a setup that targets 0814. Posted one doesn't make much sense, please dont read in to that.

btw 09013 touched, the norm for a st bear setup that targets gators 0786
  • #135,313
  • May 27, 2015 9:28am May 27, 2015 9:28am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} True. On the weekly I'm looking at this though, expecting a third test of the trendline {image}
I've played with the idea either, but taking out 2015.04.21. and 04.23. double bottom would collapse the pair in my opinion.
Time will tell.
[the spike can be a bear trap on M15..I bought the close of that candle (scalping)]
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,314
  • May 27, 2015 9:39am May 27, 2015 9:39am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} For me, a swing has to start at the top or bottom of a run. That is, there has to have been a run up (or down) and then a LH LL or HH, HL for me to put the fib on, preferably with divergence on the last high at the top or low at the bottom, and also preferably with some other characteristics of a swing (like an exhaustion spike at the top or a ranging at the bottom.)
Thats the way I pull fibs most of the time, but when in doubt I try to look/cook a setup which puts a recent pullback move as a move to norm.
i.e to put todays run up to 09284 as a norm retrace of a valid setup, thus choosing a LH instead of a HH
  • #135,315
  • May 27, 2015 9:48am May 27, 2015 9:48am
does anybody know when the tweet for the announcement of the miraculous saving of Greece will come out?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,316
  • May 27, 2015 9:49am May 27, 2015 9:49am
USD-levels not very relevant lately, but nevertheless 12.150

USDOLLAR D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0056.png Size: 63 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #135,317
  • May 27, 2015 10:03am May 27, 2015 10:03am
Quoting The Fool
does anybody know when the tweet for the announcement of the miraculous saving of Greece will come out?
As soon as all the buddies of the ECB/IMF members have finished loading up at the bottom........
  • #135,318
  • May 27, 2015 10:05am May 27, 2015 10:05am
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} Thats the way I pull fibs most of the time, but when in doubt I try to look/cook a setup which puts a recent pullback move as a move to norm. i.e to put todays run up to 09284 as a norm retrace of a valid setup, thus choosing a LH instead of a HH
Oh, I see now. Nice. Thanks!
  • #135,319
  • May 27, 2015 10:11am May 27, 2015 10:11am
Quoting hathor
{quote} I've played with the idea either, but taking out 2015.04.21. and 04.23. double bottom would collapse the pair in my opinion. Time will tell. [the spike can be a bear trap on M15..I bought the close of that candle (scalping)]
Probably would. My personal opinion is that they're going to keep kicking the can down the road on both Greece and the interest rates for a good long while,
which should keep us stuck in a wide (1000 pip) range for a good long while. And you know what they like to do in a range.....
  • #135,320
  • May 27, 2015 12:10pm May 27, 2015 12:10pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Oh, I see now. Nice. Thanks!
No problem, MissPips
btw which indi are you using for quarterly candles? I tried LargeTimeFrame & CustomCandle6 didn't workout
26 traders viewing now