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  • #993,401
  • May 27, 2015 1:38am May 27, 2015 1:38am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} theres always a probability but that probability is very low. the reason why EURCHF fell that hard is because there was literally no liquidity in the EURCHF market when the depeg happen... imagine a market where you are and your friend are the only traders, when you sell he buys, and when he sells you buy, a very rational and calm market, but when both of you sell, you and your friend would keep quoting a lower price competiting each other to find a buyer. but sadly theres no buyer because its just the 2 of you...... the price only finds...
well explained Tyrant.. thanks. reminds me of penny stock and some other highly manipulated low liquidity markets, people should stay away from.
  • #993,402
  • May 27, 2015 1:45am May 27, 2015 1:45am
Quoting 2012mysterio
{quote} attila? is that you?
i bet he is,he just Photoshopped his face !
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #993,403
  • May 27, 2015 1:52am May 27, 2015 1:52am
Quoting 2012mysterio
{quote} attila? is that you?

If its real Attila it will be interesting again here...
  • #993,404
  • May 27, 2015 1:55am May 27, 2015 1:55am
Quoting Beli
{quote} If its real Attila it will be interesting again here...
yes for sure, you remember him posting?
actually its not funny- he was struggling with things and i don't like to laugh on others pain.
he was a hell of a poster though..
  • #993,405
  • May 27, 2015 2:06am May 27, 2015 2:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} tech wise before 0657 is reached, a decent bounce is normal.. its probably going to be less then normal with current fed related conditions. normal is 1264.. .0786 was normal before 15xx.. lots of revisions of first quarter are now indicating (more expected) a over shoot that built the 15xx target.. so i personally dont give it much chance. i just include it because its still technically there. i am always looking for a better price. it shouldn't be confused with bullish

  • #993,406
  • May 27, 2015 2:16am May 27, 2015 2:16am
[quote=scottik187;8285419]{quote} Not only how big the whole market is, but how big the players in it are. Imagine you're a hedge fund and want to take a $1billion position short the Eur/Usd, but only want to short it above 1.1250 because that's good value to you. You need to find enough liquidity above that level to take those contracts without manipulating the or effecting the price. Consider also that if you've seen the opportunity then a few others probably have, and they might have bigger pockets that you and be taking even bigger positions. On the opposite end of the trade, you can't just unload all those contracts at once, you need to slowly let them go, which takes time and a lot of strength/buyers to sell your position into. When do these institutions try and move their positions? When liquidity is the greatest, market opens, and big news. When you start seeing price around news like yesterday (positive USD news = lower EURUSD) start moving very slowly or against the USD (positive USD news = higher/choppy/stable EURUSD) then I assume that institutions are unload volume into the market while the sentiment can adsorb it.[/quote]

I would agree with this except for one thing. Back a few years ago, at month end, on the last day of the month you would see the same thing every month. EURUSD Up. Even in a downtrend. Or at least if the day ended as a down day, that would happen after London close and the range would be a lot lower (due to the buying). This was usually attributed to month end flows from the UK to the EU. But recently (over the last year) I've noticed that this effect seems to be spread out over the last few days near the end of the month and not the very last day, which makes sense because when it gets too easy to make a profit from something it has to disappear. So if I saw this and it wasn't near month end, I'd agree. At/near month end, I'd be a bit more skeptical.
  • #993,407
  • May 27, 2015 2:18am May 27, 2015 2:18am
EURUSD
Today I will be looking at two specific areas for shorts with small stops.
1.0945 and 1.0995, targets should be completion of ABCD H4 at 1.0810 or 1.0744 MS1 + .786 D1.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #993,408
  • May 27, 2015 2:30am May 27, 2015 2:30am
Forgot levels:
870-900-930 etc
Micro stops in the middle
  • #993,409
  • May 27, 2015 2:30am May 27, 2015 2:30am
Quoting Cinder Man
EUR USD / 4H {image}
It goes on
Attached Image
  • #993,410
  • May 27, 2015 2:49am May 27, 2015 2:49am
Morning,

1.0910/20 close prices are key for today's move.

Not enough vola/volu to move price outside yet. Liquidity looks ok.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #993,411
  • May 27, 2015 2:52am May 27, 2015 2:52am
Quoting 2012mysterio
That swissy crash was positively insane. holy f***! I was watching EU and GU at the time, and opened swissy charts up probably within seconds (more likely minutes), of hearing the news feeds which i had open.. the most violen thing i have ever seen in markets. ever. thankfully- no trades on that mutha.. for your guys opinions- do you think that could ever happen to EU or GU or other major pairs?
if suddenly Greece exit the Euro maybe, 1.0 violated and stop cascading to I dont know where
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #993,412
  • May 27, 2015 3:02am May 27, 2015 3:02am
Guys GU heading for a cliff dive.
  • #993,413
  • May 27, 2015 3:03am May 27, 2015 3:03am
Quoting danzka
{quote} if suddenly Greece exit the Euro maybe, 1.0 violated and stop cascading to I dont know where
what if they announce problem solved , maybe : 1.20 ?
  • #993,414
  • May 27, 2015 3:05am May 27, 2015 3:05am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} what if they announce problem solved , maybe : 1.20 ?
anything possible
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #993,415
  • May 27, 2015 3:07am May 27, 2015 3:07am
Termination point for the GU dive pegged at 1.530x
  • #993,416
  • May 27, 2015 3:10am May 27, 2015 3:10am
:nerd:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #993,417
  • May 27, 2015 3:12am May 27, 2015 3:12am
Quoting Dano12
:nerd: {image}
could you please explain ?
  • #993,418
  • May 27, 2015 3:13am May 27, 2015 3:13am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} what if they announce problem solved , maybe : 1.20 ?
depends on the nature of how the problem was solved, if they are just doing the kick the bucket further down the road, then EURUSD is going to create multi year lows on every bearish swings. but if theres some sort of fiscal reform in Europe? Eurobonds? unified monetary policy amd labour law reforms then EURO might actually recover..... creating higher lows on bearish swings instead of lower lows.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #993,419
  • May 27, 2015 3:21am May 27, 2015 3:21am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} depends on the nature of how the problem was solved, if they are just doing the kick the bucket further down the road, then EURUSD is going to create multi year lows on every bearish swings. but if theres some sort of fiscal reform in Europe? Eurobonds? unified monetary policy amd labour law reforms then EURO might actually recover..... creating higher lows on bearish swings instead of lower lows.
mate on what basis you target 1.10 as an entry and not a little bit higher where if my memory serves me where there is a gap since this week open?
  • #993,420
  • May 27, 2015 3:25am May 27, 2015 3:25am
Quoting verified
{quote} could you please explain ?
Dano has drawn two green arrows on the right side of the chart
He is indicating he expects that the EUR/USD is going to fall !!
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