News trading discussion - continuation

Wednesday
11:30
20/05/15
GB Minutes of meetings of the BA
(GB MPC Official Bank Rate Votes), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 40.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.

First trade of the week, not the best but it's okay for me. Next stop, GBP Core Retail Sales on thursday 10:30h CET.

Good luck everybody.

Which news site do you guys use for your calendar?

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/

Wednesday
11:00
20/05/15
NO GDP growth
(NO GDP), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when the trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
probability trades.
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Rather complicated indicator is not included in the guarantee, the package includes:
NO GDP - SA (Q / Q) 0,3%
NO GDP - Mainland Norway SA (Q / Q) 0,3%
Both can trigger the movement, leave at different times, may cause a conflict.
All the pain that whatever the deviation, but if they are in different directions - the spike can not escape, even +/- 0.7 vs. 0.1 +/- 0.3 +/- even against +/- 0.3 .

At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories

At 14:00 pm EDT the US will release FOMC Meeting Minutes. This can be a good oportunity to straddle if you want to scalp a few pips.

Good luck everybody!

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Britain plunged into deflation, but it is not scary.

Tuesday began with the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the publication of Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from which it became clear that "the members of the committee do not see obstacles for further easing, if such action will be needed."
Recall that at the last meeting RBA predictably went to the second in this year's interest rate cut, but then the accompanying notes was not entirely clear what will happen next. But this protocol Tuesday indicates the possibility of distinct perspectives dalneyschih RBA easing.
Last night, the New Zealander has also received a good gainer from the quarterly report inflation expectations: the fact at the level of 1.9% compared with the previous 1.8%.
According to an annual rate of CPI UK still stepped on the dark side of deflation processes, while if it was expected, the remaining packet data is still forced to take positions in GBP during the day:
UK CPI (M / M) 0.2% vs. 0.4%
UK CPI (Y / Y) -0.1% vs. 0%
UK CPI - Core (Y / Y) 0.8% vs 1%
In this aspect, inflation has become negative for the first time since 1960. The main factor was a decline in the index falling aviation and maritime tariffs that carriers have reduced due to the Easter holidays.
Recall that the inflation target for the Bank of England's 2%.
Chances are no actions on the part of Mark Carney will not follow, but will learn about this in the near future: The controller "has long warned" that the CPI will remain low for a few months.
As expected sentiment index German ZEW Economic Sentiment was left without attention from the market, even at a conspicuous deviation from the forecast: 41.9 against 49 in fact.
These US real estate market coincided with the day the mood of dollar bulls, as was noted in the chart.
Building Permits 1.14M vs. 1.06M
Housing Starts 1.14M 1.02M vs.
Juncker (EC) sees an opportunity to enter into an agreement with Greece at the end of the month / beginning of June.

Thursday
4:45
05/21/15
CN production index PMI
(CN HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI), China, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
10:30
05/21/15
EU manufacturing PMI index in Germany
(EU German Flash Manufacturing PMI), the EU, EURUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Thursday
11:30
05/21/15
GB Retail Sales HOT!
(GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
05/21/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

What happened my friend?

FOMC Meeting Minutes
Summary
At the last FOMC meeting the accompanying statement acknowledged the run of weaker data and cited transitory, seasonal factors as being responsible. minutes may reveal more about how each member viewed lower data and if any consider it more serious or permanent occurrence.
In that recent statement Fed reiterated their intention to remain data dependent. The data was poor leading into decision but it is likely their viewpoints are in line with what was contained in statement – that they need more data to inform their hike timing decision.
Expected Market Reaction
One of the key subjects to look out for this release is discussion about timing of first rate hike. If FOMC members talked about pushing back rate hike becaue of data then this could be viewed as dovish and put downward pressure on the dollar.
green back had been weakening for several weeks but this week has staged come back. This release has potential to send USD either up or down.

you keep decieving us with demo acounts

Friday
15:30
05/22/15
The core US consumer price index
(US Core CPI), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Soon the summer season, respectively, a logical question arises: what about trade in this period, how many trades the behavior of markets, with liquidity.
Outset that the season could easily be different from the same season, but there are certain patterns. For summer fair to:
- The holiday season
- Reduced liquidity and economic activity
- As a conclusion, the indicators are better than economists forecast
- Even small deviations in the summer give more than other periods of movement on the one hand nice, on the other hand should be more attentive.
- Manic begins to shoot the gas, the number of trades with him has grown significantly
This is a period of thin trading as volatility can appear out of nowhere. In principle, we do arm.
Also worth noting is that this summer is different from the previous one at least that in 2015 increased the expectations of key changes in monetary policy of central banks (the same as the Fed, the ECB ...), and you have already pointed out for yourself gradual reduction of interest rates Bank of Australia, for example.
The markets have already suffered expectations of Fed rate in September, but in June also will be a good volatility in the minutes, as this expectation will be acquired after the fact.
The Bank of England will follow the inflation and the markets too ... more markets will ensure that there was a human controller, when he said that the second half of 2015, "trample".
The EU will address the issue with Greece, but analysts are not uymutsya the question of terms of continuing European QE.
Reserve Bank of Australia seems to be pleased us more than once.
New Zealand remains a dark horse, you can expect a dirty trick on rates.
But Canada is likely to be stable as long as the Fed did not give birth to concrete.
In summer, it's not that you can work - you need.