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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #9,141
  • May 18, 2015 11:50am May 18, 2015 11:50am
Quoting Iron Pawn
{quote} Yeah, it was good while it lasted... I was taken out with the remaining (on last trade) at break even and re-entered it... does it look familiar ? {image}
Hi mate, may I ask what broker you use? I'm looking for someone that supports NinjaTrader while providing fairly small contract options for DAX specifically. Apologise for off-topic, but couldn't find a way to DM you (maybe because I just registered?).
  • #9,142
  • May 18, 2015 11:19pm May 18, 2015 11:19pm
I think we turned a bit of a corner yesterday to return to a mainly bullish momentum scenario on the Daily chart. This doesn't mean there won't be short opportunities, but the daily chart is now looking set to return at least back up to 12,000. How fast it gets there is anyone's guess, but get there it should. Today I am bullish, though we are sitting just slightly above the H4 200ema, with the 200sma above at 11,785. We could therefore come down to the daily pivot or further to the 61.8% at 486 but then I'd expect a strong rally back up again. Hopefully we will drop down a bit from here so that we can all get a nice entry. Good luck!
  • #9,143
  • May 19, 2015 1:32am May 19, 2015 1:32am
Morning,

The price is in an interesting area, maybe some resistence there
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The only constant is change
  • #9,144
  • May 19, 2015 1:48am May 19, 2015 1:48am
Quoting cat
I think we turned a bit of a corner yesterday to return to a mainly bullish momentum scenario on the Daily chart. This doesn't mean there won't be short opportunities, but the daily chart is now looking set to return at least back up to 12,000. How fast it gets there is anyone's guess, but get there it should. Today I am bullish, though we are sitting just slightly above the H4 200ema, with the 200sma above at 11,785. We could therefore come down to the daily pivot or further to the 61.8% at 486 but then I'd expect a strong rally back up again....
Hi Cat, nice analysis!

I am looking to short Dax as many sma support the short. Also I think today will be good Euro data!

Green pips all!
  • #9,145
  • May 19, 2015 2:05am May 19, 2015 2:05am
shorts
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The only constant is change
  • #9,146
  • May 19, 2015 2:10am May 19, 2015 2:10am
Poor ZEW but too early to think of shorting atm for me.. Despite data, momentum is still up and support is in place. It can come down, but unless it's going to drop straight down from here, which is unlikely, it'll have to build into a short opportunity. It'll be interesting to see what happens when it hits the 1m 200ema @ 769. All to play for!
  • #9,147
  • May 19, 2015 2:15am May 19, 2015 2:15am
Quoting littspaniard
shorts {image}
I was originally shorting in the depicted area, despite that I was going to go long only. After some drawdown went out square.
Shorting today is an absolutely bad idea, after a clear turn on all major time frames, hence it is advisable to look only to go long.
  • #9,148
  • May 19, 2015 2:23am May 19, 2015 2:23am
Quoting cat
Poor ZEW but too early to think of shorting atm for me.. Despite data, momentum is still up and support is in place. It can come down, but unless it's going to drop straight down from here, which is unlikely, it'll have to build into a short opportunity. It'll be interesting to see what happens when it hits the 1m 200ema @ 769. All to play for!
Mental moves since yesterday lunchtime - I'd be interested to find out who the hell is buying the Dax at 4% + above it's low from yesterday if economic sentiment is missing so badly - very strange
  • #9,149
  • May 19, 2015 2:30am May 19, 2015 2:30am
Quoting Dode415
{quote} Mental moves since yesterday lunchtime - I'd be interested to find out who the hell is buying the Dax at 4% + above it's low from yesterday if economic sentiment is missing so badly - very strange
VW was given a re-rating by Deustche Bank, and a few of the manufacturer stocks responded upwards as well:
http://www.finanzen.net/analyse/Volk...Bank_AG_539594

Also, QE acceleration would have lowered Bund Yields the last couple of days.
  • #9,150
  • May 19, 2015 2:30am May 19, 2015 2:30am
Quoting Dode415
{quote} Mental moves since yesterday lunchtime - I'd be interested to find out who the hell is buying the Dax at 4% + above it's low from yesterday if economic sentiment is missing so badly - very strange
Traders don't give a toss about economic sentiment or any other economic data, they trade the charts. Price hit the 12 hour rising 200ema/sma, and having put in a couple of hammers on the 7th and yesterday, the mood has shifted to bullish on technicals alone. We've hit the 12 hour 100sma which has come over the top, so this may hold it or even send it back down for a while.
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  • #9,151
  • May 19, 2015 2:39am May 19, 2015 2:39am
Quoting cat
{quote} Traders don't give a toss about economic sentiment or any other economic data, they trade the charts. Price hit the 12 hour rising 200ema/sma, and having put in a couple of hammers on the 7th and yesterday, the mood has shifted to bullish on technicals alone. We've hit the 12 hour 100sma which has come over the top, so this may hold it or even send it back down for a while.
If anything, that poor economic data may cause EURUSD to lower, and cause Dax to go or hold up....
  • #9,152
  • May 19, 2015 2:45am May 19, 2015 2:45am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} If anything, that poor economic data may cause EURUSD to lower, and cause Dax to go or hold up....
I was expecting the euro to come down because on the Daily chart, the 100sma is curling up beneath at 11,052, and when this happens the price usually likes to come back to it. Whether it finds support on it is too early to say, but with euro continuing to fall back towards this level, we should expect Dax to climb - in an ideal world that is
  • #9,153
  • May 19, 2015 2:49am May 19, 2015 2:49am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} VW was given a re-rating by Deustche Bank, and a few of the manufacturer stocks responded upwards as well: http://www.finanzen.net/analyse/Volk...Bank_AG_539594 Also, QE acceleration would have lowered Bund Yields the last couple of days.

Thanks - I saw the ECB stuck their oar in this morning to talk the euro and bund yields down
  • #9,154
  • May 19, 2015 2:52am May 19, 2015 2:52am
Quoting smogser
{quote} I was originally shorting in the depicted area, despite that I was going to go long only. After some drawdown went out square. Shorting today is an absolutely bad idea, after a clear turn on all major time frames, hence it is advisable to look only to go long.
yes, looks like today is better go long when the price make a retracement. In any case also is possible play shorts in a retracement taking profits and cutting losses quickly
The only constant is change
  • #9,155
  • May 19, 2015 2:53am May 19, 2015 2:53am
Quoting cat
{quote} Traders don't give a toss about economic sentiment or any other economic data, they trade the charts. Price hit the 12 hour rising 200ema/sma, and having put in a couple of hammers on the 7th and yesterday, the mood has shifted to bullish on technicals alone. We've hit the 12 hour 100sma which has come over the top, so this may hold it or even send it back down for a while. {image}
Thanks Cat. think that's my problem - I see the PA and act on it then something comes out that doesn't make sense and I bottle it and come out of the trade so I'm making some profit but not as much as I should be. Just need to get my mind to shut out all the noise methinks
  • #9,156
  • May 19, 2015 3:02am May 19, 2015 3:02am
Quoting Dode415
{quote} Thanks Cat. think that's my problem - I see the PA and act on it then something comes out that doesn't make sense and I bottle it and come out of the trade so I'm making some profit but not as much as I should be. Just need to get my mind to shut out all the noise methinks
Yes noise = confusion. Best to concentrate on your charts and shut out everything else otherwise you find yourself worrying about every piece of economic data out there.
  • #9,157
  • May 19, 2015 3:07am May 19, 2015 3:07am
Quoting mickel
{quote} Hi mate, may I ask what broker you use? I'm looking for someone that supports NinjaTrader while providing fairly small contract options for DAX specifically. Apologise for off-topic, but couldn't find a way to DM you (maybe because I just registered?).
Hello mickel... no problem at all. Mirus futures (originally with Dorman, they were part of the group) that got acquired by NT. Have a good one!
"A handful of patience is worth more than a bushel of brains"
  • #9,158
  • May 19, 2015 3:25am May 19, 2015 3:25am
Quoting littspaniard
{quote} yes, looks like today is better go long when the price make a retracement. In any case also is possible play shorts in a retracement taking profits and cutting losses quickly
True. But retracement is so much harder to play and moreover to make a constant profit!
This particlular short, though has some prospect in terms, that there's no obvious support rather than 100 points below. The question is though, who'll be willing to sell agressively on a bullish market.
  • #9,159
  • May 19, 2015 3:48am May 19, 2015 3:48am
Quoting littspaniard
shorts {image}
closed +66 (14+25+27)

big boys lunch time, so sometimes no move this hours, so Terminators time( machines catching everything possible in a small range)
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The only constant is change
  • #9,160
  • May 19, 2015 3:53am May 19, 2015 3:53am
Quoting littspaniard
{quote} closed +66 (14+25+27) big boys lunch time, so sometimes no move this hours, so Terminators time( machines catching everything possible in a small range) {image}
good job
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