Central Banks & Big Players

I don't want to spam here but the treasury auctions are on my watch list as well now. The spread did not change at all and if this event proves to generate such a huge move it might be worth trading.

No commodities on my broker

Hi guys....especially newbies.

Last time a lot of newbies private message me (and I bet they message an old dogs here as well) and ask for explanations. They say they have bad English and shy to ask questions.

I don't thing Tony and others have anything against if you ask simple questions using poor English.
We all were newbies before. We all were born naked and learn English.

There is plenty of old dogs here that answer questions so just relax and do it guys. They usually do not bite

Religion Evolution Theory says that we are an animals and had tails that came off because we didn't need them anymore.
I don't believe it this religion but some of us are real animals, especially alpha males in financial markets

What's up guys I'm going through a 7 y.o. couple separation. I'm currently absent here cause I'm barely breathing at a pace for me to survive. I hope I will get better. I'm checking what's the main news for next week ok.

Can I ask a few questions if you don't mind ;


- how many trades per week?

- in the news don't you suffer huge slippage when you stop loss gets hit?

Someone mentioned usdchf as a good trade how come? If your stop loss was hit you are literally with wiped account...


Just thinking how risky trading the news...

Thanks

Hi Monterson, thanks for compile the strategy!
I just join this thread.

Actually I've been doing this in few months back,

I will share some of my experience with it.



1. The most hateful things is fake movement, like the latest AUD cashrate, I predict it didn't cut the interest rate,
So i put buy order on last minute, SL 20 pips, TP 100 pips.
my SL was hit, (down around 60pips) and then up around 120pips (TP should be hit, but it hit my SL first)...

2. Another strategy is i put both order (straddle) 1 mins or less before the news.
Worse case it hit both SL. sometimes it happens.
If I got a win trade, lets say +120 pips - 20 pips loss = 100 pips.
If I got both stopped out = -40pips.
But I always got a trade.

3. Another strategy that i did is i put pending order with 20 pips gap both above/below running price 1mins or less before the news.
Yes I got 20 pips less if TP was hit (let's say from 120 pips TP, i only got 100pips because of my stop order have 20 gaps before the news),
but I can give the price more room to breathe if price is moving sharp up-down (fake) before it shows it real big moves.
This way the price have the freedom to moving freely without any SL or STOP order triggered, before it shows the real big moves. 20 pips up, 20 pips down (40 pips total).
But yes the worse case is the same. it can hit both of my SL too. but the chance is lower than the #2 above.
But still you always got a trade. (on a major news).


4. If you want the best bet (better statistical) is to put 20 pips gaps before the news, only ONE WAY of direction of your predicted moves.
20 pips SL, 100 pips TP.

full scenarios:
- if the price goes in your direction more than 20 pips and goes your TP, you got +100 pips.
- if the price goes in your direction more than 20 pips but below 100 pips? remember the rules of this thread, always move SL to BE once it's move in your direction, and you can trailing. if this happened worse case is BE or smaller pips gain.
- if the price goes against your direction, no trades open, 0 risk 0 gain.
- if the price goes in your direction below 20 pips, it won't open your trade. then the price moves back against your direction. 0 risk 0 gain.
- your only loss is if the trade goes in your direction more than 20 pips, opened your stop order, and then moves back against you, then it's only -20 pips loss.

Method no.4 is what I did lately to my clients accounts. (I works as a broker in my city brokerage firm).
Remember the statistics with above scenarios: -20,0,0, (0 or small profits), +100. You have to lose 5 times in order to beat your 1 TP winning trade.
beside you have your analyze, you have a forecast in forexfactory (if you want to use them as your indicator) to support you deciding your direction (not based on a random guess).

Yes sometimes the trade doesn't always got triggered if your direction is wrong. Safe trade, less loss, less gain.
You Don't always have a trade on this one.

you earn nothing or less?you want more gain but still want a best statistical trade?
the only solution is increase your analytical skills, and if you can, trade with more capital, use bigger lots. ( only if you can afford one ).
LESS trade, but once it does, hit it with BIG bullet.

I have a buddy, a rich buddy, he has been following me and he's doing this since January 2015,
he opens himself 20 standard lots per trade. (that's the max lots per trade in my brokerage firm i works at).
sometimes he got nothing and lost nothing. sometimes he lost 20pips. (-4000$).
but once he does got his TP reached, 100pips... (+20000) "LETS GO TO PARTY MATE! I PAY".. I just could say..Uhmm..OK...i'll come..
a couple weeks ago I checked his account, grow to around +80000 from his initial deposit 300000.

He likes this strategy and he said it's more relaxing, the heartbeat race is only for a couple of minutes and no sleepless night.
He's also a busy man, he runs a company, so he can only put the order when he's home or finished the works. that's why he likes trade fundamental (don't have time to analyze the chart often).
big USD news mostly at night on my country (i'm in asia), but he want to learn to trade by himself.
so i'm glad i able to help him provide the best strategy that works for him.
(beside I also got commission from every trade he enter himself, LOL sorry I just wanna be honest)

And I hope my experiences helps you guys too.


Thanks Tony for your share of idea, I like it!

once I can find a free time, (don't want to hijack this thread). Maybe I will open a separated thread about #4 strategy if it haven't exist.
i will search it later before i make a new thread. sorry i rarely check FF.com forums (mostly check the economic calendar).

i'm off now... gotta enjoy the weekend. see ya.

Green pips to you!

Hi, Slianto!
In your no.#4 strategy, if I correctly understand, you use only a stop order at 20 pips distance( a sell stop or a buy stop)?
The worst scenario in this case is that you get get a huge gap on your order and than the price turns the other way very fast(like ligtning speed). The SL does'nt move so if you initially had pips SL and your order gaps 30 pips then you'll have 50 pips SL.
Another scenario is that the price goes your way, activate your stop order, goes in profit and turns very fast and you can't move your SL to BE. It may also gap your SL. So you are at the broker's mercy.
That is my humble opinion. I don't know every scenario, cause my broker has fixed spreads all the time. I don't know what could happen for those with variable spreads.
So, IMHO, after 18 months of news trading, I think the best way to do this is Tony's method with correct money management.
I can't use this method cause I don't have 5 second charts so I put one buy/sell 3~5 minutes before the news. I don't use dices or flip coins and i don't care about forecasts and other fundamental or tehnical analisys. I cant' use stradlle method anymore beacause of my broker that blocks all my orders when I use any stop orders on news(even if they don't get triggered).

What is the slippage on SL?


Surely it's not 20 pips.

It doesn't matter how much is the slippage. You have to think about the worst case scenario. You can have 0, 12, 27,50... pips slippage. It depends on many factors, like where is your stop, when you put the stop, liquidity, how serious is the broker and so on. You can trade for months with no slippage at all and then you get huge slippage on some pairs. You get my point!

Yet another example of the insiders taking advantage

http://www.bloombergview.com/article...hisper-secrets

Some guys asked me how do I analyze news so here you go:

First I am looking for my list of good news releases which I put few posts ago.
Second I look for cyclical patterns that often repeats e.g. if most of the times May release was higher then April then chances are for the same move or sometimes news go 3 up then 3 down for last few years or are going in trend up or down.
Most important thing is to find out at what level they'll come and then compare it with forecast. If too close to forecast then I don't trade it.

Unfortunately even if my predictions are right sometimes price is going in different direction so what I do is compare it with price chart and just imaging what market really wants. If it's close to Major Support/Resistance lines then news may go in different direction just because it's too strong pressure. I wouldn't say that big naughty banks etc are doing this. Maybe just supply and demand power (bulls and bears sentiment). Please mind that not every big institution trade news for example long term "trend followers".

- Monterson

Currently got +65 pips on the core cpi save. lets see how much further down it goes.

I just figured out that my computer clock was 6 seconds off due to incredible luck with my coin tosses a 40+ SLs was prevented because I haven't set my closer sl in place at the time of the news releases.

Well another step in my trading checklist for news trading is now to always manually synchronize my windows clock at the beginning of the session ...

Today aud gdp.. Who will trade this news?

how will you do it?

2 min before the news...stop 18 pips?

ADP floating

See you guys for NFP which will be my 1000th post!!