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EURUSD

  • #990,161
  • May 17, 2015 10:06am May 17, 2015 10:06am
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If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #990,162
  • May 17, 2015 10:06am May 17, 2015 10:06am
if price doesn't go down beyond 1.43x, still bullish IMO
  • #990,163
  • May 17, 2015 10:08am May 17, 2015 10:08am
Quoting TataFara
1. It is very very rare that Asian on Monday would break any significant level unless some news over weekend. Therefore 465 probably will hold before london. Stop hunting during asian few pips above 465 or below 420 is expected though. 2. Risk reward ratio at the current level is against euro bulls. So I think for 465 to be broken we need a strong trigger and/or some bearish trap to fill orders at levels like 400, 375, or 350. Next week is full of important events, so sentiment might be tempered during the week especially that Greece is expected to run out of money at the end of may according to their officials, which might put euro into consolidation until things are clearer with Greece. Does not mean that Greece is is euro bearish, actually any good news about Greece could be the trigger for euro to fly....
1) Not always true. Check out the 80 pips break below 1200 last sunday that was more a continuation of the downward trend of the previous week than anything else. The reversal came but much later.

2) In fact the news events could act as fuel for a long weekly candle reaching much higher than what 'people' expect.

3) I am not sure how good news from Greece front will play out. It could go either way but I think further bad news or even a Grexit is not going to bring the Euro down. It will go higher till it reaches the technical level it has to. In the end I think the current trend is more of a technical move than anything else. U/J could break out upwards with resumption of the main downward trend of E/U, in a few weeks from now. But that is too speculative at the moment.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #990,164
  • May 17, 2015 10:08am May 17, 2015 10:08am
sorry I couldn't resist, this is the way
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  • #990,165
  • Edited 1:21pm May 17, 2015 10:28am | Edited 1:21pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Where exactly you draw the ABC from? Since you posted the above on May 13, 2015 on H4, is it no 1, 2, 3 or 4 below? Your numbers seem to derive from and mixed of Gartley, Harmonic, Standard Pivot calculation and historical S/R .... 1{image} 2{image} 3{image} 4{image}
EURUSD
ABCD H4 mentioned here for the first time: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post8254312

A- 1.1065
B- 1.1381
C- 1.1131- Lightning Bolt H1 (last week's research)

Extensions:
1.27- 1.1469
1.414- 1.1497
1.618- 1.1550

Note: ABCD and AB=CD terminologies refer to Symmetry and Harmony between the swings, this includes Time & Price as well as angle width for advanced analysis. This means that on AB=CD's the legs AB and CD should mirror each other in Time and Distance while on ABCD's this is not necessarily required, what is required is completion of specific Fibonacci ratios on retracements and respective extensions. (You will find ABCD's with weird shape but harmonic, fibs wise).
​Like with any other Harmonic pattern what matters is not the type/name but which ones find confluence in higher Tf's and this is what makes them more or less likely to work. In this specific case I think that ABCD H4 completion close to 1.1550 is more relevant than the AB=CD at 1.1469, why? because 1.1550 touches 0.5 Ret D1 swing from 1.2560 to bottom, ofc market could turn from somewhere between these levels as MR1 is at 1.1485 but as the week advances there will be more clues for next step, if it works, it could well take us back to 1.1000. (1.1469 is a good sell depending on where SL is). To finalize, usually there are more than one pattern in different Tf's in progress and it's relationship and confluence between them that determines probability to whether they will work or not.
Hope it helps.

All the best for the week ahead.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #990,166
  • May 17, 2015 11:00am May 17, 2015 11:00am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Now I know how to eat a https://youtu.be/3zRWE1BM8oE
i was about to die of starvation because i didnt know how to peal it. thanks for posting man.literally made my day.
follow the flow
  • #990,167
  • May 17, 2015 11:02am May 17, 2015 11:02am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} EURUSD ABCD H4 mentioned here for the first time: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post8254312

A- 1.1065
B- 1.1381
C- 1.1131- Lightning Bolt H1 (last week's research)

Extensions:
1.27- 1.1469
1.414- 1.1497
1.618- 1.1550
Thanks. You are looking at Bearish AB=CD and the target D is the extension of CB leg instead of Bearish ALT AB=CD

http://www.you-forex.com/uploads/2/7...91444_orig.jpg
  • #990,168
  • May 17, 2015 11:24am May 17, 2015 11:24am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Thanks. You are looking at Bearish AB=CD and the target D is the extension of CB leg instead of Bearish ALT AB=CD {image}
In your example the most similar is the Bearish ALT AB=CD.
I just don't call it AB=CD because legs are not symmetrical (= equal) neither in time nor in distance.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #990,169
  • Edited 11:48am May 17, 2015 11:37am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} In your example the most similar is the Bearish ALT AB=CD. I just don't call it AB=CD because legs are not symmetrical (= equal) neither in time nor in distance.
If it's Bearish ALT AB=CD then the D 1.618 ist a 1.16579 instead of 1.155x

It's ok understand what you mean whatever you call it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #990,170
  • May 17, 2015 11:44am May 17, 2015 11:44am
[quote=pipmac;8266886]
Quoting iqyu5an
{image}[/q 1.150 level is important area....
  • #990,171
  • May 17, 2015 11:49am May 17, 2015 11:49am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} If it's Bearish ALT AB=CD then the D 1.618 ist a 1.16x instead of 1.155x It's ok understand what you mean whatever you call it. {image}
Ok. Focus on the extensions as I posted which main point is as per your chart number 4 red X point.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #990,172
  • May 17, 2015 1:04pm May 17, 2015 1:04pm
Current price is 1.4375 ! ?

Gap down !
Intraday only.
  • #990,173
  • May 17, 2015 1:08pm May 17, 2015 1:08pm
I am a newbie only trading for a few months and also reading a lot of posts on this forum, I hope I can also share my opinion here.

I was this weekend just looking at a naked monthly all-time chart. In my opinion(from a TA perspective) a structure still has to completed before going lower.

1,074x is an all-time hard bottom, under there it can go to the all-time low. But I think before they can go to at least parity, they first have to visit the BO-point of the last cycle up. It went through that BO-point of that cycle but never came back to check it one more tiime.

So I think we might have to visit 1,204x again, with important stops at 1,164x, 1,174x, 1,187x, 1,192x. In my eyes 1,138x was an important level(1/2 of 1,204 and 1,073x).

I could be completely overseeing a lot things but I am a newbie and really want to learn from you guys.
  • #990,174
  • May 17, 2015 1:15pm May 17, 2015 1:15pm
http://news.forexlive.com/!/eurusd--...-news-20150517
  • #990,175
  • May 17, 2015 1:15pm May 17, 2015 1:15pm
Quoting navk
Current price is 1.4375 ! ? Gap down !
last friday could be a bearish hammer then..a significant gap down is always one of confirmations of it..
money ain't shit,i'm the shit..
  • #990,176
  • May 17, 2015 1:16pm May 17, 2015 1:16pm
Quoting navk
Current price is 1.4375 ! ? Gap down !
1.4375? That must be the biggest gap up ever seeing that it closed at 1.1450 on friday
  • #990,177
  • May 17, 2015 1:23pm May 17, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting mamalujo
{quote} 1.4375? That must be the biggest gap up ever seeing that it closed at 1.1450 on friday
he mistyped..1.14375..
money ain't shit,i'm the shit..
  • #990,178
  • Edited 2:32pm May 17, 2015 2:05pm | Edited 2:32pm
In forex, if something is so obvious, then most probably it won't happen. Euro is now approaching a very strong resistence level 1.1500/1.1530. It is a point where everybody wants to sell. forex is a balanced market, for someone to sell, someone else must buy, so the market will have two options when faced with such scenario:

1. Either Deciding to approach but not touching that level.

2. Or when touched , the price will proceed advancing and breaking it to the upside untill buyers accumulate to fill the shorting orders.

That said I think either we are now at or very near the turning point, or the price won't stop at 530. According to this, I think selling pressure exactly at the resistant would keep the price advancing to 1.16xx.
  • #990,179
  • May 17, 2015 2:12pm May 17, 2015 2:12pm
Quoting TataFara
In forex, if something is so obvious, then most probably it won't happen. Euro is now approaching a very strong resistence level 1.1530. It is a point where everybody wants to sell. forex is a balanced market, for someone to sell, someone else must buy, so the market will have two options when faced with such scenario: 1. Either Deciding to approach but not touching that level. 2. Or when touched , the price will proceed advancing and breaking it to the upside untill buyers accumulate to fill the shorting orders. That said I think either we are...
Why do you believe that 1.1530 is a strong resistance?
  • #990,180
  • May 17, 2015 2:22pm May 17, 2015 2:22pm
Watch 1.14939 if we get there.
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