DislikedHI Myrmica, {quote} numbers and probabilities will give you an edge in poker because you know who/what you're dealing with. however, as a retail forex trader you do not get to see the order flow behind the trades and therefore what's most important is to learn how to read the flow of the market via price action. The market is essentially a dynamic beast so there are probably no repeated market conditions at any point in time, therefore reading the market is more of an art than a science. This takes practice (i wouldnt say that ive mastered it) but...Ignored
Personally I used to think that as well, but it's just a belief that's not grounded in reality. I used to believe that no system can work and the only way to succeed is to be use some sort of intuition. It's wrong. Definitely wrong. I've seen and proven to myself that there are profitable systems out there, systems that have been profitable for decades and will continue to be. These are very very simple systems and they can be even identified by machines using SIMPLE data and rules. So we haven't even gone into the area of using human brain processing power and our understanding of the market, the economy, and the world to process data.
IMO, there are systematic patterns in the market because they are traded by algos and humans who behave consistently from day to day. Well, but the reason isn't really important, what's important is whether we can spot these patterns. It's difficult but once you switch the belief to that it is possible and such patterns or edges exist, they may just start popping out for you and then you can come up with a repeatable process instead of relying on fallible human judgment.
Data is King. Facts are king. Rely on the scientific process. Forget everything else.
just my opinion on this. feel free to disagree.
***
Here are some must-reads imo to start opening your eyes to what the market is really about...
Trend
http://www.automated-trading-system....-monkey-style/
http://www.automated-trading-system....on-randomness/
http://intel.harriman-house.com/trad...andom-entries/
Volatility
http://archive.nyu.edu/fda/bitstream...2/wpa99059.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoreg...moving_average
Examples of profitable portfolio trading systems
http://jfec.oxfordjournals.org/conte...9yNqOdYLFhG9cT
http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/.../htm/carry.pdf
The point here is to realise that, profit via systematic methods are POSSIBLE. The market is not some esoteric beast. In fact it's almost IMPOSSIBLE not to make a profit trading if you stay in the game long enough and don't blow yourself up.
Build good relationships with others.
1