{quote} This is like saying when you buy a lottery ticket the chance of success is 50/50.
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And its not. Most lotteries are 2 (revenue) / 1 (wins). Meaning if they have 2 million of revenue they dish out 1 million of profits. Meaning statistically its insane to buy into that kind of thing, of course. Who would create a lottery based on the assumption that they wanted to loose money? Ok sure there have been 1 or 2 lotteries like that throught history, but its NOT the standard deal.
{quote} The 50/50 chance you have only when your TP is just as big as your SL. When you increase your TP then the chance that it will be hit by price before your SL is hit is accordingly lower.
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I dont think its a matter of chance. There are people looking at these numbers. People are placing the positions. If they where to buy/sell without any strategy, your assumption would be correct. Or at least i would be more inclined to accept your assumption.
{quote} This 50/50 thing is only true when you have no real purpose to ones method of trading.unfortunately the majority are in this situation of it being a 50/50 chance and considering the spread eventually they will loose. For those few that are consistently making gains this 50/50 thing is incorrect.if you are able to determine when the market you trade is tilted in favor of buyers or sellers at a given moment the probabilities shift towards buy or sell.little like the weighted coin .if you are able to control your desires to be in the market...
One of the biggest problems in this game is most are not looking at the right things.so much time and effort is spent on indicators that one is directed in the wrong focus. we need to concentrate our thought towards measuring ,quantifying the strength in buyers and sellers.
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Agreed. Lets just assume someone made a really great indie that you just use like: When there is a green light you buy and red light sell. If that indie got spread around it would change the market and it would stop working. From what i know, the working EAs do not use standard indicators. A lot of them are probably NOT, i repeat NOT focused on selling high and buying low, but the reversed. Selling high and buying low is to go AGAINST the market.
{quote} Well OK then if thats working for you. I have no idea what to make of that.
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The idea is that if one should be spending any work and effort in finding a trade opportunity, it makes no sense whatsoever that the result should be a loss.
{quote} The idea is that if one should be spending any work and effort in finding a trade opportunity, it makes no sense whatsoever that the result should be a loss.
One of the biggest problems in this game is most are not looking at the right things.so much time and effort is spent on indicators that one is directed in the wrong focus. we need to concentrate our thought towards measuring ,quantifying the strength in buyers and sellers.
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But how can we quantify the strength of buyers and sellers? When I see a green candle I know for the past that there have been more buyers. Then I decide to jump on the train and also buy only to find out that prices drop and hit my SL. Then maybe I try to buy at any red candle in hope that prices after this red candle rise again (taking a MA as guidance only when closing prices are still higher than this MA I will buy) only to find out that prices will fall down much more. So seeing for the past (green, red candles) where buyers or sellers where stronger is easy but how can I make predictions for the future?
{quote} Some stuff that my current status on FF doesnt allow me to talk about and what you mean by "strategy" and what you mean by "profitable". I doubt any of it is important in this context though.
{quote} But how can we quantify the strength of buyers and sellers? When I see a green candle I know for the past that there have been more buyers. Then I decide to jump on the train and also buy only to find out that prices drop and hit my SL. Then maybe I try to buy at any red candle in hope that prices after this red candle rise again (taking a MA as guidance only when closing prices are still higher than this MA I will buy) only to find out that prices will fall down much more. So seeing for the past (green, red candles) where...
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That is a big question.
Ill answer this first.If price leaves a consolidated area,range or what ever the term may be and moves 70 pip, on cable for example in favor of buy strength and retraces ,i would not be looking at that large green candle as an indication of futer buying opportunity ,quite to the contrary.that initial move would see adjustments across many related pairs and adjustments for those managing risk . most participants would need to adapt there positions and requirements accordingly.my interest would be above that large green candle.i would expect to buy above that initial price.if price retraces all the way back to the origin of buyer strength i would consider sellers to be dominant.
i have found that we need to make entries in to market with a higher probability of being right when the momentum of the overall market agrees.to this there are a number of ways to determine it.its quite possible for your given trading pair to be taking to a new recent high or low simply from the fact that there is a stronger force at play within a different currency.
{quote}the tip with the trading journal is good although my motivation to keep track of something that I do not even know if it will be profitable is low. But it makes oneself probably think more deeply about the reasons to take a trade.
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That is an interesting thing to type.
Because you do not even know if it will be profitable is the whole idea of the journal in the first place. It might get boring but just keep showing up and filling it in.
Maybe I'm just a nerd, but I find forward testing ideas and recording results interesting.
if you don't do your maths, the maths will do you.
hey diceman, in regards to what I wrote and your response on the last page, I realized that I did not express myself corectly, in the instance that you take a position whenever you feel like it yes, then obviously the odds will never be 50/50. I was talking in the event that you allready have a strategy that does give some sort of correct signals, then you would still have a chance o 50/50 of succes, I witnessed many ocassions when let's say everything was lined up, indicators, pa, resistance or what ever you want and then some guy say a thing that no one expected out of nowhere and everything moves against you, or something happens that you can't control or can't see, that is why I believe you allways have a 50/50 chance, but as you said if you don't have any method of trading and you are trading basically on how you feel yes then the ods will never be 50/50 because there are many situations which present better ods, sorry for my bad english or bad explanations but I just wanted to give my 2 cents.
hey diceman, in regards to what I wrote and your response on the last page, I realized that I did not express myself corectly, in the instance that you take a position whenever you feel like it yes, then obviously the odds will never be 50/50. I was talking in the event that you allready have a strategy that does give some sort of correct signals, then you would still have a chance o 50/50 of succes, I witnessed many ocassions when let's say everything was lined up, indicators, pa, resistance or what ever you want and then some guy say a thing that...
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got it,
but just to clarify i dont enter the market from what i feel,i enter the market on what is unfolding in front of me,if those unfolding dynamics change i close out my position regardless of what the price is.
And there are moments when the odds are so stacked in our favor monkey could be taught to gain from it.unfortunatly those moments are not as often as one would like
yes of course man, I also do the same, I've gotten past the rookie mistake of entering a market when I feel something is going on some time ago, in the mean time I learned that patience is extremly important in this game, if you don't have a strategy of entering the market then it's better to stay out of course, cheers and best of luck
I don't know why ppl here keep stating the obvious like: Supply and Demand, trend lines, support and resistance shit, market profile crap, candlestick hocus pocus...etc. There's only one thing in common you'll find among successful traders/ big players; Consistency...Make it your only trading goal..look for consistency!! Ignore anything else about the market..Screw the market and how it works... You're here to make money, not to predict the future...So, look for a method/strategy or whatever way that would make you consistent on the long term and you'll make money...That's it. I know it's not that easy, but I'll give you a hint...If you can't find consistency among the so-called 'winning strategies' posted on forums, look for the opposite; a consistently losing strategy ( martingale, grid, hedging, arbitrage are excluded.) and then reverse it. And you'll set your foot in Profitville, end of story.
I don't know why ppl here keep stating the obvious like: Supply and Demand, trend lines, support and resistance shit, market profile crap, candlestick hocus pocus...etc. There's only one thing in common you'll find among successful traders/ big players; Consistency...Make it your only trading goal..look for consistency!! Ignore anything else about the market..Screw the market and how it works... You're here to make money, not to predict the future...So, look for a method/strategy or whatever way that would make you consistent on the long term and...
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The problem is you can be very consistent with a losing strategy. Consistency is also one of the non-saying expressions in the forex world that doesn't help anyone who still has not a winning strategy. Reversing losing strategies might be an approach but the consistenly losing strategies are just as rare as the consistently winning strategies.
And to make money I have to predict the future. I always hear that I dont have to predict the future because I am here to make money. The latter one implies that I am able to predict the future until price hits my TP.
It's like telling your soccer team after you are 2:0 behind the other team: "Hey guys we are not here to shoot goals but to win this match!".
{quote} The problem is you can be very consistent with a losing strategy. Consistency is also one of the non-saying expressions in the forex world that doesn't help anyone who still has not a winning strategy. Reversing losing strategies might be an approach but the consistenly losing strategies are just as rare as the consistently winning strategies. And to make money I have to predict the future. I always hear that I dont have to predict the future because I am here to make money. The latter one implies that I am able to predict the future until...
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I know that finding a consistently losing strategy is not an easy task, but it's very achievable compared to finding a consistently winning strategy or even trying to predict the future...You can search on the internet for the predication accuracy of most professional traders and you'll be astonished to find that it's 40% on average...60% is very rare and is considered a holy grail...Rings a bell? If the best traders in the world get at least half of their trades wrong, yet they still make money at the end of the year...So, do you still think that you have to predict the future to make money? If you have a simple system that would win 40% of the time with a risk to reward ratio that's 3:1 or 4:1, your account would be in the green zone provided that your strategy is consistent with the P:L percentage and the risk to reward ratio. Trading is not an easy thing..but it's simple enough, if you know what you're looking for. Cheers!!
I think a lot of people lack ideas. And they get stuck reading regurgitated information.
What if you just knew one statistic.
eg. Days when West Texas Intermediate closes higher against the greenback by greater than 1% at New York close - the EURCAD ends the Asian session lower than it started the Asian session 61.8% of the time (based on 504 days of data).**
I think a system could be built around that.
**I just made this statistic up as an example.
if you don't do your maths, the maths will do you.
