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Anyone use esoteric analysis methods for timing? 12 replies

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Attachments: Much of Forex talk is illusional esoteric talk
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Much of Forex talk is illusional esoteric talk

Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} A good start is to realize the market will always consist of highs and lows that will either be broken or they wont be. I think every trader in the world can agree on this. This is how the markets had always worked in the past, its how they work in the present, and it is how they will work in the future.
Hi,

this is why i term it as an "art", because as "art" goes the market is one of its greatest expressions. "How" the market moves, you will never be sure. It has such a huge number of buyers and sellers that you can be sure that their collective intent can never be the same at any point in time, thus the "art".

However, from your "patterns" you have basically identified price action behavior which is i guess a reflection of the market psychology, or the inherent bias at any point in time.

The market does not move because of "patterns", it moves because of the order flow. Being able to "read" the order flow will place you in a better stead instead of just relying on patterns. This i guess should be the ultimate aim of traders, to try to live and breathe the market.
Quoting limzy
{quote} Hi, this is why i term it as an "art", because as "art" goes the market is one of its greatest expressions. "How" the market moves, you will never be sure. It has such a huge number of buyers and sellers that you can be sure that their collective intent can never be the same at any point in time, thus the "art". However, from your "patterns" you have basically identified price action behavior which is i guess a reflection of the market psychology, or the inherent bias at any point in time. The market does not move because of "patterns",...

I agree that the market does not move because of patterns, but it does have to move in patterns. Everything in this world has some sort of pattern it moves in. If it didn't this would be a vary chaotic world.

My patterns do not predict the market, they follow what the market has previously done.
Once something has happened it has paved the way for it to happen again and again. This is how cycles are created and maintained.

Many say there is no reason to look at the past to make decisions for the future but this is 100% utterly false in my opinion and in the opinion of most highly educated professionals. It is literally impossible to not look to the past to make decisions in the future unless your brain is wiped clean every single day like a hard drive or something. Even if you are not using past price data to make your decisions, you are using your past experiences with price to make your trading decisions, so no matter what you are always rely on some sort of past "data" to move into the future.

I believe many people like to use their past experiences over past price data because no one can tell you your past experience is wrong since that is something only you can experience and analyze, but someone can say your past analysis of the price is wrong because the price is something we can all see, experience, and analyze unlike your personal experiences.

I disagree with your statement ""How" the market moves, you will never be sure."

You will always know how the market moves. It moves up because there are more buy orders than sell orders, it moves down because of the opposite. What you will never know is why the market will moves. Another key word being will. Its very easy to say why the market has moved after the fact but this doesn't make anybody any money

Don't try to beat the market, instead just follow it to victory as it beats every one else trying to out smart it.
Quoting limzy
{quote} Hi, this is why i term it as an "art", because as "art" goes the market is one of its greatest expressions. "How" the market moves, you will never be sure. It has such a huge number of buyers and sellers that you can be sure that their collective intent can never be the same at any point in time, thus the "art". However, from your "patterns" you have basically identified price action behavior which is i guess a reflection of the market psychology, or the inherent bias at any point in time. The market does not move because of "patterns",...
So how do you "read" something if there are no patterns? Languages have grammar and syntax so that meaning can be conveyed; markets shouldn't be too different. Art is different because now it's subjective. And art is consumed for art sake, not because we want to make money out of it in some systematic manner. Comparing trading to an art is a bit misleading imo and even artists have to learn principles of drawing and colour etc.. A craft maybe, but crafts have systematic patterns. Just ask any carpenter how they build stuff. Is it by intuition? maybe, but only after they have mastered the physics and science of it. Only after we understand how something works from an objective sense, then can we start applying more "discretionary" elements to it to make it a craft.
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http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=462458

See the number of trades and the duration of the explorer.Just coz you cant do doesn't mean no one can
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} I agree that the market does not move because of patterns, but it does have to move in patterns. Everything in this world has some sort of pattern it moves in. If it didn't this would be a vary chaotic world. My patterns do not predict the market, they follow what the market has previously done. Once something has happened it has paved the way for it to happen again and again.
Yupp, otherwise there would be no physics, no psychology, no sociology, no biology and so on. They all depend on the universe to create patterns. But like you say, that doesnt mean things will happen EXACTLY they way it did last time or the way it usually happens.

Just take the way an object falls on earth: acceleration of 9.81 metres (or something similar) squared per second. And it applies to objects that doesnt catch much air with its surface as compared to its weight. Thats a pattern, a VERY reliable pattern. Its not like some iron balls accelaretes 2 metres per second while some accelarate 120 metres per second. But its not an "objective" truth since on other planets it falls at other speeds because of other gravitations and in space it doesnt fall at all.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • Post #66
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  • Edited at 3:50am May 23, 2015 3:35am | Edited at 3:50am
Quoting mindgame
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=462458 See the number of trades and the duration of the explorer.Just coz you cant do doesn't mean no one can
Hayseed has been around for a while doing his thing. He is one of those who prove a nice EA is possible. He has a good money management so he notices something is awry before it goes bananas.
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As you can see though, same patterns doesnt work as well for all pairs:
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A lot of people have the "It cant be done" attitude. I think its a psychological defense mechanism to protect the ego from pain: It hurts to admit THEY cant do it at the moment, so they invent an explanation that says: It cant be done.
My signature is: "Classified".
Quoting yaed
I think its a psychological defense mechanism to protect the ego from pain: It hurts to admit THEY cant do it at the moment, so they invent an explanation that says: It cant be done.
Really? That's what you think? Because ff is an abundant supply of proof that forex trading is easy and profitable? It's certainly not filled with people pissing in the wind, right?

Trading is a cesspool of failure. Every trade begins as a failure from the moment it is brought into existence and has costs attached to it, so it's understandable that this shit isn't a walk in the park.

If you have the secret sauce to success then great, but I have to question that possibility when you can't even find it in you to comprehend the failing nature of trading and resort to mind-boggling snippets like the above. It makes me wonder if you aren't just riding a bit of luck and speaking out of turn. I don't actually care either way, except when I smell undeserved self-congratulating.

It's a long fall to the bottom.
Forex Trading for the Savvy Beginner
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Really? That's what you think? Because ff is an abundant supply of proof that forex trading is easy and profitable? It's certainly not filled with people pissing in the wind, right? Trading is a cesspool of failure. Every trade begins as a failure from the moment it is brought into existence and has costs attached to it, so it's understandable that this shit isn't a walk in the park. If you have the secret sauce to success then great, but I have to question that possibility when you can't even find it in you to comprehend the failing nature...
Very nice.
My signature is: "Classified".
Quoting yaed
{quote} Hayseed has been around for a while doing his thing. He is one of those who prove a nice EA is possible. He has a good money management so he notices something is awry before it goes bananas. {image} As you can see though, same patterns doesnt work as well for all pairs: {image} A lot of people have the "It cant be done" attitude. I think its a psychological defense mechanism to protect the ego from pain: It hurts to admit THEY cant do it at the moment, so they invent an explanation that says: It cant be done.
Actually I am quite sure that it can be done. Up to now this attitude still has not helped me because I have not found a profitable strategy. Hayseed also has not published its strategy. Do you have a profitable strategy yet? I wish you the best and I hope you have.
Quoting Myrmica
{quote} Do you have a profitable strategy yet?
Maybe, it depends.
My signature is: "Classified".
Quoting yaed
{quote} Maybe, it depends.
It depends on what?
if I may chime in ( I only read the first page so I am basically replying to op 1st post ), I think that first you need to find a sweet spot to trade in the market, in my mind that means you don't want to have small SL's, so that will lead you to say a 40 pip SL, that means in order to have at least a good ratio you would need a TP of 80 pips, after you find your reasonable SL and TP I think the next good step should be to take a good look at your time frames, and you will realize that in order to get those gains you will need greater moves then those you could calculate on an m5 time frame. I am sorry if it sounds stupid or novice advice but this helped me to understand better the market, and once I really understood what this means I could then restart my whole process of trying to build a trading strategy suited to me, I for one would be happy if I had a 50% win ratio on a 2:1 rr honestly. anyway this is just my opinion and an advice that helped me when i realized it. best of luck to all
Trade what you see not what you hope
Quoting STIprdr
if I may chime in ( I only read the first page so I am basically replying to op 1st post ), I think that first you need to find a sweet spot to trade in the market, in my mind that means you don't want to have small SL's, so that will lead you to say a 40 pip SL, that means in order to have at least a good ratio you would need a TP of 80 pips, after you find your reasonable SL and TP I think the next good step should be to take a good look at your time frames, and you will realize that in order to get those gains you will need greater moves then...
The problem I always had with the R:R ratios is that when I double my TP the chance of hitting it is only half. So when I have a textbook 2:1 R:R then the chance that I hit my TP is also only half of that hitting my SL so actually it did not matter for me or improve anything.
man when you double your tp you don't half your chances, always when taking a trade it doesn't matter what tp or sl you have you still have a 50/50 chance of succes, I heard a thing that stuck with me once, if you have 10 trades and 9 out of them are losses what is the chance that the last trade will be a succes, and it always is 50/50, I myself thought as you do and I hurt my self in many ways, but from which I learned I hope a few things, my advice is stick to an H1 time frame at least, allways keep a 2:1 rr and then search for your style of trading, if you want only perfect wins and desire to take few trades but only winning, or if you have a good trading plan that is bound to make money and even though it has losses it will allways have also wins, and when you put it on paper you will see it pans out, think of it this way your trading 50/100 and even though if you would have 5 losses in a month and only 2 wins in a month you would still only be 50 pips down that month, but that would mean that you advanced to at least having some sort of trading plan with a stability which you could tweek and recheck in history untill it shows a steady profit
Trade what you see not what you hope
Quoting STIprdr
man when you double your tp you don't half your chances, always when taking a trade it doesn't matter what tp or sl you have you still have a 50/50 chance of succes, I heard a thing that stuck with me once, if you have 10 trades and 9 out of them are losses what is the chance that the last trade will be a succes, and it always is 50/50, I myself thought as you do and I hurt my self in many ways, but from which I learned I hope a few things, my advice is stick to an H1 time frame at least, allways keep a 2:1 rr and then search for your style of trading,...
This is like saying when you buy a lottery ticket the chance of success is 50/50.
Build good relationships with others.
no I don't think it is, if Forex would be like the lottery everyone would bid on an exact price that a certain market would get to and only those would win, but on the way to that price, there are other prices, not everyone is hunting 500 pips trades, anyway this is just my opinion and my advice, if it helps good if it doesn't probably it will hurt me more then you
Trade what you see not what you hope
Quoting STIprdr
man when you double your tp you don't half your chances, always when taking a trade it doesn't matter what tp or sl you have you still have a 50/50 chance of succes, I heard a thing that stuck with me once, if you have 10 trades and 9 out of them are losses what is the chance that the last trade will be a succes, and it always is 50/50, I myself thought as you do and I hurt my self in many ways, but from which I learned I hope a few things, my advice is stick to an H1 time frame at least, allways keep a 2:1 rr and then search for your style of trading,...
The 50/50 chance you have only when your TP is just as big as your SL. When you increase your TP then the chance that it will be hit by price before your SL is hit is accordingly lower.
Quoting Myrmica
{quote} The 50/50 chance you have only when your TP is just as big as your SL. When you increase your TP then the chance that it will be hit by price before your SL is hit is accordingly lower.
This 50/50 thing is only true when you have no real purpose to ones method of trading.unfortunately the majority are in this situation of it being a 50/50 chance and considering the spread eventually they will loose.

For those few that are consistently making gains this 50/50 thing is incorrect.if you are able to determine when the market you trade is tilted in favor of buyers or sellers at a given moment the probabilities shift towards buy or sell.little like the weighted coin .if you are able to control your desires to be in the market to the moments when your probabilities increase .then overall you will have a positive long term results.the thing that is missing for most is the ability to recognize this tilt in the demand or supply.
One of the biggest problems in this game is most are not looking at the right things.so much time and effort is spent on indicators that one is directed in the wrong focus.

we need to concentrate our thought towards measuring ,quantifying the strength in buyers and sellers.
Quoting Myrmica
{quote} It depends on what?
Some stuff that my current status on FF doesnt allow me to talk about and what you mean by "strategy" and what you mean by "profitable". I doubt any of it is important in this context though.
My signature is: "Classified".
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