Much of Forex talk is illusional esoteric talk | Forex Factory

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Much of Forex talk is illusional esoteric talk

  • #1
  • First Post: May 5, 2015 5:59pm May 5, 2015 5:59pm
Hi guys,

I am not trying to offend anyone personally and I hope someone can convince me my opinion is wrong but at the moment I dont know what of all these things, I am reading here is really from people who have an idea of what they are talking about.
Here is my story:
I have tried for many years to be successfull in forex trading. I suffered personal and financial losses due to this. I know I have made mistakes like overtrading, greed, impatience and fear. But after all. Switching all those things off, the main problem stays that I dont have a profitable strategy. For a long time in my life I played poker online. Not for a living but it was a substiantial income. I knew my edge even if I lost 10 games in a row. So I know how to controll my behaviour IF I know that I have an edge. But that is exactly the problem in forex. How shall I know this? In poker I can explain which action in which circumstances is most often right against which player. Because I know the numbers and probabilities.
Here in FF I read most often only vague advice like "dont overtrade", "use MM", "cut losers let winners run" etc...
All these things are probably correct but this would be the same as saying a poker novice to control is psyche to be profitable. That would be not enough.
Yes, this is a part to become profitable. But the more important part are the statistics and numbers how you should act in certain situations. Such concrete statistical based numbers I never read in forex? Why? Is there no statistical edge because then an expert advisor would work? Vague advice dont work. They just help you if you have a strategy you KNOW it has an edge. Who here knows that he has such a strategy?
  • #2
  • May 5, 2015 9:39pm May 5, 2015 9:39pm
Yes, I think I know exactly how and what you are going thru as I had gone thru this particular phase years ago. But now at least you know what is needed to be known in order that one can really succeed this this very challenging business beside all those senseless diatribes and no brainer rhetoric like what you have mentioned. Those trading advices are very nicely written by those paid analysts/failing traders who can only write beautifully and articulately and dont have a clue how to trade profitably.
What you should do now is to ask yourself what do you personally need to see/know in your chart so that you can trade successfully. It will be a long and arduous process whereby you will fail many times before you can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel and if you keep on persevering in your quest and endeavor then the reward that awaits you will be well worth it.

Good luck and take care.

GS.
  • #3
  • May 5, 2015 10:33pm May 5, 2015 10:33pm
Forex = Casinos = Gambling = Betting.

Want to make money? Go work. Invest in real things.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #4
  • May 6, 2015 12:50am May 6, 2015 12:50am
Quoting MapleLeaf
Forex = Casinos = Gambling = Betting. Want to make money? Go work. Invest in real things.
I have read a few of your posts Mapleleaf and you are clearly the most negative person on FF. You have obviously been badly wounded both financially and emotionally by trading Forex, It happens to some , get over it, move on with your life and stop harbouring hatred for something you failed in, some will succeed dont be jealous of that, go find something that you are good at, i'm sure there is something in this big world for you. Hate and jealousy are very undermining emotions and they will stop you from getting on in your life. You will not serve any purpose on staying on here in FF spreading your negativity. Some will succed in FX some wont, you havnt, MOVE ON.
patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet
  • #5
  • May 6, 2015 3:21am May 6, 2015 3:21am
Hello Myrmica,

If you managed to make substantiel gain at poker, you might want to focus on it ...
At least in that game, its much more fair for every participants

Regarding your question:
- You ought to create a trading journal, you will see what set-up gives you a sort of edge
It will allow to take in a loosing row and know you are still a winner in the long-term.

That is in theory
  • #6
  • May 6, 2015 3:26am May 6, 2015 3:26am
hi Myrmica,

hope you are fine. if you have some time, you could go through this post which i found to be quite useful in some ways, don't judge the contents first, calm down and read through, try to understand the points.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=215432
  • #7
  • May 6, 2015 3:38am May 6, 2015 3:38am
Quoting Myrmica
Hi guys, I am not trying to offend anyone personally and I hope someone can convince me my opinion is wrong but at the moment I dont know what of all these things, I am reading here is really from people who have an idea of what they are talking about. Here is my story: I have tried for many years to be successfull in forex trading. I suffered personal and financial losses due to this. I know I have made mistakes like overtrading, greed, impatience and fear. But after all. Switching all those things off, the main problem stays that I dont have a...

Capital and smaller leverage. These concrete two things (as you want to hear from us) will definitely brighten up your trading experiments. Trading with 500 or 1000$ and 1:500 is overly complicated thing because as you might notice risk increase proportionally as the leverage rise. Do you think institutional or bank traders are considerably clever or smarter than you? They simply have more resources (capital) and 1:10 leverage to make profit or recuperate losses. Poker is limited by the number of players at a table while Forex by the whole world and all of us. And something tells me that profitable strategy is not the issue but reducing risks is.
  • #8
  • May 6, 2015 6:19am May 6, 2015 6:19am
I agree with this. There is too much emphasis on psychology, and not enough on understanding the market itself, devoting a lot of time and effort to become good at technical and fundamental analysis etc. You either get all kinds of terrible metaphors about market being a hole to dig, a bag to fish out money etc., or random strategies, that in 99% of cases won't work if the user has little or no broader perspective of the market.

Quote
Here in FF I read most often only vague advice like "dont overtrade", "use MM", "cut losers let winners run" etc...
I wouldn't call it vague. It's perfectly logical advice. There is no right amount of trades, the perfect system of MM etc. that would work for every single trader in every situation, ultimately you'll have to figure out what works for you. Don't expect to be handed all the answers, especially not on a forum.
  • #9
  • May 6, 2015 7:56am May 6, 2015 7:56am
One piece to ask what is the meat and potatoes behind your trading approach ?

Indicators
PA
TA
etc
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #10
  • May 6, 2015 8:10am May 6, 2015 8:10am
Quoting Myrmica
Hi guys, I am not trying to offend anyone personally and I hope someone can convince me my opinion is wrong but at the moment I dont know what of all these things, I am reading here is really from people who have an idea of what they are talking about. Here is my story.......
Most people here at Forex Factory don't know how to trade, but it's easy for those people to sound like experts when they rearrange and regurgitate generic statements about money management and psychology. If those same people tried to speak with authority about the specifics of currency trading, their theories could be quickly proven right or wrong. That's why most of the content here is deliberately esoteric and vague.

I think you are on the right track with your comparison of poker and trading - both must be built on a solid mathematical edge which you can quantify and monitor. Of course the psychology and money management are also important - you wont succeed without them - but a profitable strategy, which is based on systematic exploitation of real market inefficiencies, must be the foundation of your whole approach.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #11
  • May 6, 2015 1:16pm May 6, 2015 1:16pm
Quoting genghistar
Yes, I think I know exactly how and what you are going thru as I had gone thru this particular phase years ago. But now at least you know what is needed to be known in order that one can really succeed this this very challenging business beside all those senseless diatribes and no brainer rhetoric like what you have mentioned. Those trading advices are very nicely written by those paid analysts/failing traders who can only write beautifully and articulately and dont have a clue how to trade profitably. What you should do now is to ask yourself what...
Thanks for your wishing. I hope you are already successfull.
  • #12
  • May 6, 2015 1:19pm May 6, 2015 1:19pm
Quoting ChanhXanh
Hello Myrmica, If you managed to make substantiel gain at poker, you might want to focus on it ... At least in that game, its much more fair for every participants Regarding your question: - You ought to create a trading journal, you will see what set-up gives you a sort of edge It will allow to take in a loosing row and know you are still a winner in the long-term. That is in theory
Hi ChanhXanh,

the tip with the trading journal is good although my motivation to keep track of something that I do not even know if it will be profitable is low. But it makes oneself probably think more deeply about the reasons to take a trade.
  • #13
  • May 6, 2015 1:21pm May 6, 2015 1:21pm
Quoting zxdtrader
hi Myrmica, hope you are fine. if you have some time, you could go through this post which i found to be quite useful in some ways, don't judge the contents first, calm down and read through, try to understand the points. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=215432
Hi zxdtrader,

yes I am fine, thanks. But sometimes trading makes and made me very frustrated and sad and took away energy from me I should have invested somewhere else.
Thanks for the link. The advice of this guy seems to be good.
  • #14
  • May 6, 2015 1:25pm May 6, 2015 1:25pm
Quoting leebsurag
{quote} Capital and smaller leverage. These concrete two things (as you want to hear from us) will definitely brighten up your trading experiments. Trading with 500 or 1000$ and 1:500 is overly complicated thing because as you might notice risk increase proportionally as the leverage rise. Do you think institutional or bank traders are considerably clever or smarter than you? They simply have more resources (capital) and 1:10 leverage to make profit or recuperate losses. Poker is limited by the number of players at a table while Forex by the whole...
But would it not just take more time to lose my capital in case my strategy is still flawed or only a 50:50 game? Of course in general your advice is correct but I still think the having a profitable strategy is the main thing.
  • #15
  • May 6, 2015 2:00pm May 6, 2015 2:00pm
Quoting COGSx86
One piece to ask what is the meat and potatoes behind your trading approach ? Indicators PA TA etc
Meat and potatoes is Indicators and PA. At least that is what I am trying.
  • #16
  • May 6, 2015 8:05pm May 6, 2015 8:05pm
Hi Myrmica

There are a lot of systems to try. But the biggest factor is time. You need to invest a lot of time and patience into learning the system, working out whether it suits you as a trader, trading the system from that of a beginner all the way up to a master level. Now some people have mastered new systems within weeks, others months and others years. Not everyone's the same and sometimes a system needs a bit of tweaking for it to fit your personality and needs. Again this is up to the trader and also requires time and effort to modify it or modify your own behaviour.

If you haven't already looked at ForexAlien's system, you should.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=463573


Some people have mastered the system very quickly, others like myself have taken over a year to adapt my bad habits to trading it. It has been a journey of self discovery and self awareness and not necessarily fun. But at the end of the day once a system really starts to make sense and you actually can see the move setting up it is a most satisfying feeling. The more successful you are, the more confidence you acquire. It becomes a positive feedback cycle. I am just turning the corner myself but it was worth all the work I've put into it.

good luck. stay focussed.
"It's life, Jim, but not as we know it."
  • #17
  • May 7, 2015 1:21pm May 7, 2015 1:21pm
Quoting guymontag
Hi Myrmica There are a lot of systems to try. But the biggest factor is time. You need to invest a lot of time and patience into learning the system, working out whether it suits you as a trader, trading the system from that of a beginner all the way up to a master level. Now some people have mastered new systems within weeks, others months and others years. Not everyone's the same and sometimes a system needs a bit of tweaking for it to fit your personality and needs. Again this is up to the trader and also requires time and effort to modify it...
Hi guymontag,

thanks for that link. I certainly will have a look at this one. Does that mean that you are using this system now profitably?
Good luck to you too.
  • #18
  • May 7, 2015 5:36pm May 7, 2015 5:36pm
DEmo yes, very well.

I'm a bit skittish on my real account, but I have learnt a lot and continue to fine tune my abilities to avoid unlikely setups.


Read the entire thread as it will save you a lot of frustration. It is a very "complete" system.
"It's life, Jim, but not as we know it."
  • #19
  • May 17, 2015 7:02am May 17, 2015 7:02am
HI Myrmica,

Quoting Myrmica
So I know how to controll my behaviour IF I know that I have an edge. But that is exactly the problem in forex. How shall I know this? In poker I can explain which action in which circumstances is most often right against which player. Because I know the numbers and probabilities.
numbers and probabilities will give you an edge in poker because you know who/what you're dealing with. however, as a retail forex trader you do not get to see the order flow behind the trades and therefore what's most important is to learn how to read the flow of the market via price action.

The market is essentially a dynamic beast so there are probably no repeated market conditions at any point in time, therefore reading the market is more of an art than a science. This takes practice (i wouldnt say that ive mastered it) but after awhile, you'll be able to recognise changing market conditions and react.
  • #20
  • May 17, 2015 8:20am May 17, 2015 8:20am
Hi for me the problem is deciding what to do in your life (poker or trading) and solve your personal problems (if you have them).

Once this is done you have to gain experience in trading as in any job and it will take a bit of time (obviously in demo but without using too much)

Remember that you must be capitalized and use very low leverage.

Keep in mind that not only exists Forex but also other financial instruments like futures, CFDs, stocks, etc ...

Take a look at the polls that I opened to get an idea.

I agree with aposteriori and quoting this phrase

Quote
There is too much emphasis on psychology, and not enough on understanding the market itself

For me psychology and trading are two things that need to be separated.
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