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  • #988,941
  • May 13, 2015 2:56pm May 13, 2015 2:56pm
Quoting 10cents
Euro bulls, let push it higher......... 1.1460 go go go
10 cents I was thinking about you on my way home, and wondering if EU had pulled back, when I got home I see that it is still trading at the R2, if EU can accumulate here I think we will hit your tp by tomorrow for one last spike up.
Leading by "Being an example" is hard to find then actual examples.
  • #988,942
  • May 13, 2015 2:57pm May 13, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Wicks can lie, closes cant.
i mean theres still need a confirmation of the pattern tomorrow
money ain't shit,i'm the shit..
  • #988,943
  • May 13, 2015 2:58pm May 13, 2015 2:58pm
Quoting roadtogo
{quote} perhaps it goes higher tomorro, so how do we know?
Once you have a pattern you need confirmation..

1) assuming we have an evening star pattern on the 1H chart, all we have to do is checking if one of the following candles closes 1 pip below the LOW of the pattern, if any hourly candle closes above the high of the pattern the pattern is broken and we can assume we will go higher.. this is not the case yet..

2) If today's daily candle closes below closing price of the previous top it will give a sign of double top.. then we can risk going short if not already and SL would go a few pips higher of our double top high..

and yes perhaps it goes higher.. then we buy.. if it goes lower we sell..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #988,944
  • May 13, 2015 2:59pm May 13, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting pedro319
EURUSD Fundamental: NFP failed to move market as I anticipated, lower still possible but maybe not to 1.0900. Payrolls came out within expectations and unemployment better than expected but earnings and wage growth was below indicating slow economic growth, I think that we will have to see much better U.S data for FED to consider lift off in June or even in September. We know that when that happens it will drive Dollar higher due to flows of investment into the U.S, so any hints on this are pretty crucial. This week is not particularly rich U.S...
EURUSD
So far so good. We have bounce at the top 1.618 Gartley on D1 + WR1 and now the question is whether this only a bounce or retracement to 1.1000, the completion of ABCD H4 below implies failure of Gartley D1, we know that when these patterns fail they fail miserably, so that would mean 1.1469 and possibly 1.1550. Plan for tomorrow is to trade rejection of 1.1324 or 1.1286, if this is only bounce those levels should be sufficient, H4 closes below the second will be complicated for bulls.
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #988,945
  • Edited 3:12pm May 13, 2015 3:01pm | Edited 3:12pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} It is not a double top before we can see that the CLOSE of today's daily candle is LOWER than CLOSING price of the previous candles.. Happy Trades
To add to that:
Aren't patterns like the double top never confirmed until they are over or well under way?
Patterns are things that are there because people want them to be there. Yesterday a lot of sellers here were all about: H&S's! H&S's! Were are we now? Not at the end of that head and shoulders pattern, that is for sure.
The benefit of patterns is that it gives the person that sees them the conviction that his bias (be it short or long) is correct and the courage to take the leap. After that good money mangement (TP and especially a STP targets) will lead the way.

But why am I even typing this? Everyone here already knows that and this is a forum full of milionairs *cough**cough*.

Edit: IMO, if you keep it simple and look at the Daily and Weekly you can see that we were in a range from the 6th of March up until 29th of April (range was about 1.046 - 1.104) . At the end of the 29th and the beginning of the 30th the price went above the range, bounced back down a bit at around 1.129 to 1.107 to make a new high last week. This week we are on our way to a new high as well.
If you take the scenario above into account, it seems to me, especially with the fundamentals in mind (average NFP and sales, OK-ish news from EU regarding Greece), that we are in a clear retrace to at least 1.18.
  • #988,946
  • May 13, 2015 3:04pm May 13, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} I have not yet been able to develop an observable case verifying the significance of this.
Are you sure? Do you use candle sticks?
  • #988,947
  • May 13, 2015 3:07pm May 13, 2015 3:07pm
Quoting coldvinc
{quote} To add to that: Aren't patterns like the double top never confirmed until they are over or well under way? Patterns are things that are there because people want them to be there. Yesterday a lot of sellers here were all about: H&S's! H&S's! Were are we now? Not at the end of that head and shoulders pattern, that is for sure. The benefit of patterns is that it gives the person that sees them the conviction that his bias (be it short or long) is correct and the courage to take the leap. After that good money mangement (TP and especially a...
You are right.. some for patterns we can avoid confirmation since the pattern itself can be already the signal itself..

The truth is nobody knows exactly what will happen next (unless you are not some Kingsman inside a big bank), but that doesn't matter if one: you build your bias on what you SEE and not what you EXPECT.. two: you have strong money management skills.. and three: you strictly follow the rules..

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #988,948
  • May 13, 2015 3:08pm May 13, 2015 3:08pm
Euro attempted to renew the upward movement, and this can happen in case that the currency climbe up over the top of 7 May at 1.1381. If this level will be passed we can expect the pair to test next key resistance located around 1.1538, where is situated the tip of 2 February. On the other hand, the potential return of the profit of the dollar is limited by 89 SMA positioned near the key level at 1.1000.
  • #988,949
  • May 13, 2015 3:09pm May 13, 2015 3:09pm
closed 1 short from 11350, and the second short SL moved to a small profit
  • #988,950
  • May 13, 2015 3:12pm May 13, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting Dano12
closed 1 short from 11350, and the second short SL moved to a small profit
On my 1 minute chart still no divergence on stochastics, no climb up above Ichimoku cloud.. so I keep my shorts..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #988,951
  • May 13, 2015 3:16pm May 13, 2015 3:16pm
One way to look at it...

Remember .10xx? Wasn't EU on vaca then as well...?
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  • #988,952
  • May 13, 2015 3:16pm May 13, 2015 3:16pm
I am out for today, waiting for a good tomorrow trades
  • #988,953
  • May 13, 2015 3:17pm May 13, 2015 3:17pm
will long around 1.126x let's see , stops blow 1.123x
  • #988,954
  • May 13, 2015 3:21pm May 13, 2015 3:21pm
Quoting edyraper
will long around 1.126x let's see , stops blow 1.123x
I Dont think it will go that low, Pedro's level 1.1286 would be the best to go LONG
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #988,955
  • May 13, 2015 3:21pm May 13, 2015 3:21pm
The PA is giving the impression that it is gearing to continue its journey up. 1.1530 is now looking very reasonable,but still not the target.

I just want to warn those keeping their shorts hoping for retracement.
Hope won't move the price.

Growth in Europe is exceeding the growth in US so far this year, confirmed by GDP. Inflation could follow the same path shortly. This is something that was hardly believed short time ago.

I always trust the bond guys, and what they are doing now, is telling too much about the expected future.
  • #988,956
  • May 13, 2015 3:21pm May 13, 2015 3:21pm
Price broke the resistance level at 1.1300 I had a planned buy position over the resistance level and I took my 40 pips. now price will be testing 1.13500.
  • #988,957
  • May 13, 2015 3:23pm May 13, 2015 3:23pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} EURUSD So far so good. We have bounce at the top 1.618 Gartley on D1 + WR1 and now the question is whether this only a bounce or retracement to 1.1000, the completion of ABCD H4 below implies failure of Gartley D1, we know that when these patterns fail they fail miserably, so that would mean 1.1469 and possibly 1.1550. Plan for tomorrow is to trade rejection of 1.1324 or 1.1286, if this is only bounce those levels should be sufficient, H4 closes below the second will be complicated for bulls. {image}
Atm structure points to where your leg target is so, ye 1.15 is for now bull target unless bears can deliver and they need to deliver seriously to make that change.
Hah i love that you pointed out: when this patterns fail, they fail miserably, its so true, i havent seen anyone pointing that out before.
  • #988,958
  • May 13, 2015 3:24pm May 13, 2015 3:24pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} I Dont think it will go that low, Pedro's level 1.1286 would be the best to go LONG
As for h4-h1 agree.
  • #988,959
  • May 13, 2015 3:31pm May 13, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Are you sure? Do you use candle sticks?
I use Bars. I have had many failures finding a predictive pattern between daily closes and price direction. So i have dismissed it altogether. In addition, weekly closes or opens either. I have seen gaps down and up where price within the same session or the subsequent ones push hard in the opposite direction. Thats just my own personal experience in trying to apply such a technical method and make some money.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #988,960
  • May 13, 2015 3:33pm May 13, 2015 3:33pm
Quoting jothetrader
The PA is giving the impression that it is gearing to continue its journey up. 1.1530 is now looking very reasonable,but still not the target. I just want to warn those keeping their shorts hoping for retracement. Hope won't move the price. Growth in Europe is exceeding the growth in US so far this year, confirmed by GDP. Inflation could follow the same path shortly. This is something that was hardly believed short time ago. I always trust the bond guys, and what they are doing now, is telling too much...

1.1536 is the Target
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
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