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  • #988,601
  • May 13, 2015 2:03am May 13, 2015 2:03am
Hi, fxtyrant
i don't understand why this EU thing keep in rally. it's hard to find the short signal with minimum drawdown
  • #988,602
  • May 13, 2015 2:07am May 13, 2015 2:07am
Morning,

250/55 likely sitting some big option trader which keeps selling vols against eur in respect of usd and chf.

Bond market has not done anything remarkable yet.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #988,603
  • May 13, 2015 2:08am May 13, 2015 2:08am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} as long as USD treasury bond yield is on the rise, no reason for USDJPY to drop. besides 118.80 is a level I watch carefully for a breakout and so far every breakout was a "fakeout" as we get back above it everytime....
hello fx tryant higher the interest expectations->higher yields->higher sp500 and usd and lower the commodities..

what to do if fed skips june which is likely to possible? isnt it sensible to short usd and go long on brent?
money ain't shit,i'm the shit..
  • #988,604
  • May 13, 2015 2:09am May 13, 2015 2:09am
!
looking for investors . pm me
  • #988,605
  • May 13, 2015 2:11am May 13, 2015 2:11am
Quoting terpencil
Hi, fxtyrant i don't understand why this EU thing keep in rally. it's hard to find the short signal with minimum drawdown
Same.. Just trust in fxtyrant and ready to any downside or profit.. I want to scalp seeing this pair continuosly in same range, but i had overuse my fund earlier.. ������

Now is london open right? I guess the time to see the endin coming..
  • #988,606
  • May 13, 2015 2:15am May 13, 2015 2:15am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} as long as USD treasury bond yield is on the rise, no reason for USDJPY to drop. besides 118.80 is a level I watch carefully for a breakout and so far every breakout was a "fakeout" as we get back above it everytime....
Tyrant,
In other words, this is also a support reason for E/U to drop down other than QE?
Is there a level to watch out for E/U if it breaks up?
  • #988,607
  • May 13, 2015 2:26am May 13, 2015 2:26am
Quoting rjngh2005
{quote} is this a 4 hour chart or what...the time frame is not shown
Sorry for not displaying the time-frame...
It is indeed 4-hour chart...
  • #988,608
  • May 13, 2015 2:27am May 13, 2015 2:27am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} How much is it right now ?
10 year yields at 2.2381% atm.
its been moving up for the last month
when yield rises, it means US Bonds are being cashed out back to US Dollar....
soooo dollar is being supported on unwinding of US treasury.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #988,609
  • May 13, 2015 2:29am May 13, 2015 2:29am
Quoting fx-anew
{quote} Tyrant, In other words, this is also a support reason for E/U to drop down other than QE? Is there a level to watch out for E/U if it breaks up?
yes US Treasury Yield rising is the opposite to US treasury price.
so if yield rises, price drops...
and when price of treasury drops it means people are selling US treasury bonds, and when you unwind US treasury bonds back to Cash, you are adding to the demand of US Dollar in Cash. that's why you see dollar reluctant to fall hard....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #988,610
  • May 13, 2015 2:30am May 13, 2015 2:30am
look at pound it is best buying opportunity with the trend and major data are ahead. so better to buy the breakout to gain good income
  • #988,611
  • May 13, 2015 2:39am May 13, 2015 2:39am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} yes US Treasury Yield rising is the opposite to US treasury price. so if yield rises, price drops... and when price of treasury drops it means people are selling US treasury bonds, and when you unwind US treasury bonds back to Cash, you are adding to the demand of US Dollar in Cash. that's why you see dollar reluctant to fall hard....
It depends on who bought those papers, US investors or foreigners.

Then where the money in re-invested after.

Better compare German 10y while watching yields.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #988,612
  • May 13, 2015 2:49am May 13, 2015 2:49am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} It is still in range http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds...t-bond-spreads {image}
Hi Ken (or Gator)

Do you happen to know where to find charts of the bund/US treasury yield spreads? I've been looking all over
and can't find one.

Thanks
  • #988,613
  • May 13, 2015 3:06am May 13, 2015 3:06am
"Investors will be looking toward GDP estimates from the Eurozone and retail sales data from the US in order to gauge the speed and strength of recovery in the two economies. With fears about Greece seemingly ebbing, today's Eurozone data will likely provide direction on the recent rally in EUR." - Saxo Bank

It is perhaps better to wait for the data to choose a stand for the time being. This rally might just decide to last a little bit longer. If you want to short, maybe there are higher levels and safer places to sell and hold.
I am tired of chasing after the market like a maniac, and nobody is going to refund me for my diligently made mistakes. If you trade with your own money, always remember the importance of capital preservation.

Good luck all!
  • #988,614
  • May 13, 2015 3:10am May 13, 2015 3:10am
:nerd:
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  • #988,615
  • May 13, 2015 3:12am May 13, 2015 3:12am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} 10 year yields at 2.2381% atm. its been moving up for the last month when yield rises, it means US Bonds are being cashed out back to US Dollar.... soooo dollar is being supported on unwinding of US treasury.
I've found a chart of US treasury bund and US 10 years note. It shows its being bought, but i don't rule out another leg down in order to catch more buyers.
Same for EU bund

But its not correlated at all to equities it seems
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #988,616
  • May 13, 2015 3:23am May 13, 2015 3:23am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I've found a chart of US treasury bund and US 10 years note. It shows its being bought, but i don't rule out another leg down in order to catch more buyers. Same for EU bund But its not correlated at all to equities it seems
wait wait... Yield up means Bond price Down.. make sure you know the difference.... is it the Yield going up or the Price going up??
cuz the yield of treasury bond's been rising for the past month or so.... that's whats keeping the USDJPY up....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #988,617
  • May 13, 2015 3:24am May 13, 2015 3:24am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} wait wait... Yield up means Bond price Down.. make sure you know the difference.... is it the Yield going up or the Price going up?? cuz the yield of treasury bond's been rising for the past month or so.... that's whats keeping the USDJPY up....
Yes true, then bond price are going down from charts. So the price are going down so far (its been this way for the last 2 months)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #988,618
  • May 13, 2015 3:30am May 13, 2015 3:30am
If EU sellers from here are strong, its heading to 1,099x/1,10

Small short to test the water, and waiting for NOK to confirm it and add bigger
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #988,619
  • May 13, 2015 3:34am May 13, 2015 3:34am
i love it, complete uncorrelation between GBPUSD and EURUSD... TOTAL DISCONNECT!
Exactly how it should be
  • #988,620
  • May 13, 2015 3:34am May 13, 2015 3:34am
Reversal from 1.1280 could form the H&S on H4 EURUSD chart, increasing the importance of 1.1140.
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