Sonic R. System

This week is really not my GREEN but totally I still have 100% WIN since March 30th.

EURUSD: Why I think this can go anywhere



Any comments are welcome
( Sonic's first rule says "no three o'clock trading". His comparing PA with the watch is gaenial!)

For those that PM-ed me (and other new visitors of this thread) about PVSRA and other details about Sonic R and Trading in general- there is a reminder of an excellent post from last year.
If you have a feeling you cannot read 4061 pages (and many have to be read more often than once), read more often at least to page 100, and then start at page 3500 again. There are tons of valuable informations, the clues that lead to sucsessful trading.

All that you will need apart from that is time enough to practice to the level where your light turns on often enough to have many good trades - on which you can build up your confidence ( and when you start to practice, use only TAH-Revised indicators from page #1, any other indicator is "the noise" you do not need).

Ask yourself, how serious you are about trading. The answer reflects the amount of time needed for studying!
Remember, nobody gets a Masters degree in two weeks. ( And for those claiming that they are Trading for many years- I don't want to be too hursh- but I know a lot of people that were signed in at university for more than 6 years, but getting a degree was not their first priority).

Wish green pips to all of you in the future!

Edit:
And there is another thing I have noticed from reading the past posts. There were many newcomers here ( and already gone ) that wanted to "BELIEVE", not "DO".
Trading is not a religion, it is hard work! Don't be a "believer"! In my third year of trading I was lucky to come to a turning point- I could interact with TAH and other great traders here. I'm not even close to my "Master degree" yet, but I know I'm on the main way to it and I sure can recognize a genius when I meet one!

That's the spirit! Can't let lil road blocks get to you.

Weekly analsys:

CAD/JPY- looking bearish for me, and is forming H&S pattern.



NZD/USD- looking bullish for me with a significant stopping volume at the daily support. (NZD/CAD- the same)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

GBP/CHF- Bullish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

EUR/USD- It was very bearish for me, but at friday this big bar was shown and is little disturbs me, now i'm not sure for this pair direction- my bias is soft Bearish.




Wish you all a great week and profitable trading, Eran!

Rock on bro....
So dramatic, but stay blue. no hollygrail story on this business, we fight with any kind of risk everyday while we trade. some time we loss in red - n some time we got profit in blue, n the final result we stay blue. minimize the risk n maximize profit , thats our job on this business. good job mate..

Lesson....
How to read the market with PVSRA?
its just remain us how the market really works. and its all start from the first post on #page one of this thread.
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High Volume on Market Tops - what is being shown by "PVSRA" under this condition?
As an example, take note this H1 TF EURO/USD on this following ss pic:

1. Many other traders or trading journal tell that high volume while price up is a sign that there is high activity of the buyers, or in other words "buyers dominated to keep prices up to the next higher high level". is that true? Do not be reckless to draw conclusions. Market does not work linier, we are often faced with uncertainty - isnt it?
2. As we have learned, that how the market really work not just tell us about buyer n seller. We must remember that in it there is also a lot of fraud, camouflage, trickery, and exploitation by MMs. They need targets to suck in fulfilling their liquidities. As note, on the market there are SM (Smart Money) and DM (Dumb Money) too. So, Who are targeted? offcours the retailers, the weak holders.
3. When most people assume when the market hits new highs on high volume, that this is buying and a continuation of the up-move (the news is good and everybody is bullish), sure this is a very dangerous assumption. As we have already touched upon during this text, high volume on its own is not enough. If the market is already in a rally and high volume suddenly appears during an up-day (or bar) and immediately the market starts to move sideways or even falls next day (next bars), then this is a key sign of a potential end to the rally, "Stop Hunt" occured. We have to pay attention the SR area too (Big Round Number/BRN, consolidation level, etc). If the higher volume shows an increased effort to go up, we would expect the extra effort to result in higher prices. If it does not, then there must have been something wrong. This principle is known as effort versus results.
4. A high volume up-day (or bar) into new high ground with the next day (or bar) level "down" is an indication of weakness. If the high volume had shown professional buying, how can the prices not go on up? This action shows that buying has come into the market, but be warned that the buying has most likely come from potential weak holders who are being sucked into a rally top! It happens all the time. Of course we need an evidence to made this clear, H1 TF on EU chart which I attach below will explain it.
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5. Based on this 1st pic i attach below, we have some clues to read MMs scheme on this suck market:

1. Point-1; Price is on a very top level above half number 1.13500, very high volume indicated very high activity on this level area, but the bar formed is not wide spread bar. then the market fall (two bars) to the lower level at poin-a before up again to point-2.
2. Point two shows us same high top level as point-1, but the volume is much smaller than point-1. it shows us that the profesional traders -MMs did not take part significantly to pushing up the price; thus it is the shape activity of dumb money (DM). MMS throw trigger to fool and suck the retailer - panic buyers, to fill this robbers pocket with some liquidities for their shorts before they (MMs) sell all the stock on that highs level. see, the price move back lower at point-b; as low as previous low on point-a. then market rise again more aggressive with rising volume too and stop at the point-3 & 4.
3. Point 3 - 4 , are the same scheme as point-1. The rising volume smaller than point-1. Then the up move suddenly stop again and move to the opposite direction, start at point-c. And boom..., market fall, with wide spread bar break the support and increased selling activity.

1. What other clues we get from that conditions? Got it, that the high activity PA on point 1, 3, and 4 not followed by upward movement to new higher ground - The market starts to move sideways or even falls next bars. The Efforts are not comparable to the results!!
2. 1, 3, 4 are happened on very high level above Half number area 1.13500. What is special by this conditions? As we learned, that BRN (Big Round Number (especially half :500 ; and whole :000) are the most important levels should be noted. Cz on that areas, the big boys normally palced their order. The areas are commonly addressed by SM to fill the order.
3. Based on the above, would be more appropriate if we conclude that the Rober MMs may preparing to run profit of their shorts which has been built during the uptrend.
   1. a; market fall into new lower ground from 1.
   2. b; market fall into new lower ground from 2.
   3. c; market fall into new ground from 3 and 4.
   4. d; break support then move to the next lower level as they wanted (usually will stop at the previous consolidation area).
   5. As note, the high climax volume decreases during the uptrend.

   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Dear Mauro-J,

What an excellent post! We are lucky to have you!

EURUSD: I would like to add- we cannot know what the new week brings, the best is to stay cautious- we have bullish engulfing on H1. And the price didn't just break the upper half level, but also the lower whole level-more times.
Luckily, we have also SONIC R CLASSIC SETUP, which can show us the way below this whole number or above this half number.

And with some additional luck- we get TAH's opinion on Monday.

Edit: I like your explanation of Volume: "Result vs Effort" !

Excellent .

I don't use sonicR method but I admit that I use this method to analyze the market. Your explanation in points 1,2 and 3 is excellent summary of SonicR method.

Again

Sure, mate... we never know what the new week brings on tomorrow. So, if we want to get some clues, we need to read the PVSRA on that lows consolidation area, and wait for clearer clue on monday.

I don't know if you agree to me or not but I think that it is very difficult to analyze EU as compare to other currency pairs.

EURUSD Comments

Intro
The DAY chart shows a quasi double bottom with PA climbing since then. And recently in the climb there are two retraces. Late PA last Thursday was the second retrace. Friday PA was consolidation at the bottom of the retrace. So, is the retrace over with, or soon to be over with, and to be followed by a resumption of the up trend? Or is this second retrace the start of a weakening of the new up trend, to be followed by new moves lower? These are the questions a trader asks and seeks answers to. And this is complicated due to the fact that no matter the analysis, we cannot know how the MMs will move price next. But we do not give up. We continue to seek clues via PVSRA and await a decent trade opportunity, no matter which direction.

PVSRA
There is an aspect of PVSRA which is seldom discussed, and yet it is very important. It's importance is not diminished by the difficulty in getting a good clue from this aspect of PVSRA. What is this aspect of PVSRA? It is "Timing". It refers to trying to determine how great a move (how long a move) the MMs might be setting up for. For example, we can see the activity at the highs Last Wednesday and Thursday, which suggested the MMs might be setting things up for a move down (filling SM short orders). And indeed on Thursday the price was swung down over 150 pips. Friday the price dropped about 50 more pips, establishing the bottom area of a range, and subsequently thru the day the price waffled up and down to create the top of the range, wherein the price remained thru the day.

What has this to do with "Timing"? Our main question concerns whether or not this retrace is over with. Yet, there was a lot of activity at the highs on Wednesday and Thursday, so is meager average drop of 150ish pips all there is going to be? Is price going to range while MMs work to fill more SM long orders? Or was all that activity at the highs indicative of SM expectations for a greater move down? This gets us to the "Timing" question of just how great (how big a move, how long in time) an opposite move might be expected from high activity at highs (or at lows). And the answer is, as we should expect by now, we cannot know! Is this therefore a worthless aspect of PVSRA? No, certainly not! It is a valued reminder that the MMs are devious. We might mistake high activity at highs to mean a good drop is coming, and it might not. Maybe only a small drop comes and is followed by more position building in the opposite direction. We must never assume "big" activity at highs or lows indicates a big move in the opposite direction is coming. Never assume "big Timing" (big opposite results from big activity at highs/lows). Think about something here. Suppose some of that high activity at the highs was MMs filling SM shorts for a move to a lower region to close those shorts and to start filling more longs for SM, and at the same time some of that activity at the highs was MMs filling additional SM longs up there, too!

You see, if the market is all about liquidity and if SM anticipates greater upside to come, and if they start to place additional long orders, they might do so at the current higher prices, as well as at a reasonably lower price area, hoping those orders at the lower prices will also get filled. Then, of course, it is up to the MMs to work price to fill both the long orders at the current highs (Wednesday and Thursday), and also to get the price down to fill the SM long orders at the reasonably lower prices. To fill any orders the MMs need to sucker in DM shorts! High activity at highs might start to excite shorts to put money into the market. And if this is followed by a 150ish pips move back down, that might reinforce the excitement of shorts to put more money into the market!

So, while a simple "conclusion" that high activity at highs is a harbinger of a great downside move that could be profitable for shorts, it might not be that way at all. I refer to the thought process in analyzing activity at highs and lows and expectations for profitable opposite moves to follow as being a "Timing" consideration. And sometimes we might anticipate good moves - bigger, longer lasting moves - when the MMs are on a completely different page than that. The subsequent move down might be over with at 150 pips, or at 100 pips, or at 50 pips, etc.

Prognosis
Okay, PA has retraced from the highs of last Wednesday and Thursday. There was good activity at those highs, but also there was good activity while the price ranged most of Friday, following the retrace. Frankly, we need to give this more time. For me, the new bull trend on the DAY chart is showing retraces which is "healthy" for the uptrend, so long as the retraces are manipulations by the MMs to fill more SM long orders. We need to continue to analyze into this new week to see what PVSRA clues are forthcoming. Remember, too, that stacking of the Trend, Dragon, PA is the best indication of momentum and especially if there is notable volume as price begins a new move at, or just preceding the stacking event. In the final analysis, this is what to focus on.

Additional
Recent posts use the term "effort vs result" (probably should be stated "result vs effort"). Low results (no more highs following high activity at highs, no more lows following high activity at lows) is understandably a clue that a price reversal is coming. Just keep in mind that it is not a clue as to "Timing". It is not a clue from which we can automatically anticipate a big move lasting for some good time. A resultant reverse move might be quick and shallower in price than we anticipate. Why? It all comes down to where SM is placing orders to open and/or close positions. They might be placing both longer term longs (to profit from an up trend) and short term shorts (to profit from a retrace in the up trend to lower prices where they have orders to close these shorts and open more longs). Such a consideration as this is a "Timing" consideration - how far down, how much time involved - that might be prompted by seeing poor results from strong efforts at highs. Because we cannot know how the MMs will move price next, we have to be just as careful about anticipating how big/how long a move, as we are about anticipating direction of move. Ultimately, completed stacking that is accompanied by, or preceded by notable activity is our best trade setup clue. PVSRA keeps us abreast of what the market is really doing, and so that we have more appropriate expectations for our trades.

tah

So, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), Price Volume Analysis (PVA) and PVSRA are all different names of the same method invented by Richard Wyckoff.

Wyckoff's Three Laws

The mechanics of the markets are so complicated that one must break it down into some foundational guidelines that encompass the whole, then build upon that foundation slowly and methodically until it makes sense and becomes a high probability, low risk undertaking. By now you should understand the advantages Smart Money has over the crowd and you should be looking at the market from their perspective. The rest of the lessons will focus on the methods Smart Money uses and the Market Dynamics those methods are based on.

Richard D. Wyckoff devised three laws that govern market dynamics. These laws tell you how and why the markets work. The law of Supply and Demand is the most fundamental and overriding aspect of market dynamics. The other two laws act on and measure Supply and Demand.

The Law of Supply and Demand

This law states that when demand is greater than supply, prices will rise, and when supply is greater than demand, prices will fall. Here the analyst studies the relationship between supply vs. demand using price and volume over time.

The price of every equity moves up or down because there is an excess of demand over supply or supply over demand. 2. The Law of Effort vs. Results - divergencies and disharmonies between volume and price often presage a change in the direction of the price trend.

The Law of Effort versus Result

The law of effort vs. result states that the change in price [spread] of a trading vehicle is the result of an effort expressed by the level of volume and that harmony between effort and result promotes further price movement while lack of harmony promotes a change in direction.

The Law of Effort (volume) versus Result (price) in action. This law can be seen as working on one bar.

The Law of Cause and Effect

This law states that in order to have an effect you must first have a cause, and that effect will be in proportion to the cause. This laws operation can be seen working as the force of accumulation or distribution within a trading range that works itself out in the subsequent move out of that trading range.

The idea is to measure this cause and project the extent of its effect. The excesses that develop in supply and demand are not random but are the result of key events in market action or the result of periods [candles] of preparation. Wyckoff teaches what these developments are and how to judge when they are unfolding in time to take advantage of the excesses in supply or demand that will follow.

This law is seen working over a group of bars.

One tool that Wyckoff provides is the concept of the "Composite Operator." Simply put, Wyckoff felt that an experienced judge of the market should regard the whole story that appears on The Tape as though it were the expression of a single mind. He felt that it was an important psychological and tactical advantage to stay in harmony with this omnipotent player the so-called composite operator. The successful trader must endeavor to ascertain what is in the back of the head of that fellow and to anticipate his moves; for he is constantly expressing his intentions by what he does and the way he does it; by the urgent or leisurely character of his buying or selling; by the volume of the stocks he deals in, the width of their swings, especially in the leaders.

As a further study I would recommend:

Richard Wyckhoff- Method of tape reading

Tom Williams- Master the markets

Anna Coulling- A complete guide to volume price analysis ( I also recommend her website and youtube channel)

All books are available for free download online.

Please Revise to Make Legible

Type style and size too difficult to read. Can you enlarge for the benefit of all, including those of us no longer spring chickens?

So far as "Supply and Demand" is concerned, it is a logical premise made unusable in that we have no idea where current supply and demand are located on the price queue, and further by the practice of Big Players "Ghosting" or "Bluffing" their intents by placing orders they have no intention of allowing to be filled. It is historic S&R/Consolidation Areas that would tend to point to any places new "supply or demand" might appear. Whether there actually is "supply or demand" there - that won't be cancelled before price arrives - we simply cannot know.

So far as "Effort vs Result", this is something we can use - as already discussed in posts today - because it relies only on being able to see PA and volume that is already executed.

So far as "Cause & Effect", this too is a logical thought process made entirely unusable due to the fact the MMs completely control price to further their non-transparent intents, sometimes running price up when actually they are bears looking for liquidity for filling short orders, and sometimes running price down when they are actually bulls looking for liquidity for filling long orders. Time and again we have seen repeated clues the MMs are bulls or are bears, but that the price continues in the opposite direction far beyond our most liberal anticipations. We simply cannot know how the MMs will move price next. It is financial suicide to believe what we see on our charts reveals true "Cause" from which we can reliably extract true "Effect" to come! The age of computers has vastly increased the ability of the MMs to manipulate ("Cause") and keep their intents ("Effect") totally covert. And even if we could reliably predict "Effect", we can NEVER reliably predict WHEN! So none of this, while sounding good, is of any practical benefit to traders.

-tah

Marijan,
you are my neighbour and my boat is on your sea,
but I have to disagree here ( but it is just my opinion).
I have been reading every analisys on Investing.com, where Ana Coulling posts many analisys (among many many others) for more than 2 years.
The result was bad trading.

On the other hand- I have been reading Sonic R system for 5 months- and my return first 2 weeks trading Live Forex is +25%.

Math is on the side of Sonic R.

But that is just me. Maybe traders should read all this books (including me ), it is just that my first priority on my reading list is Sonic R system. When (if ever) I'm finished with reading ALL of great posts from the Sonic R book, then I will consider moving to the next book.
But again , that's just me. I always loved the math.

(I feel sorry for Zerd, I didn't want to point him out, but he is such a good example:
I bet Zerd read a lot of books and is familiar with many patterns- but his result this year was -68%. He deleted his Explorer after my post, but you can believe me.)

It is ok to disagree, all opinions are welcome. I didnt know about her posts on Investing.com, but I have read her book and saw her yt channel post and found both to be very helpful.

I recognized her from the picture, when you PMed me. And there is more I must tell you, she was wrong more times than Kathy Lien- which is wrong most of the times- just like all the news here on FF (that caused Tah's suspensions) !!!

And another- check all the Trades that Tah took this year (based on HIS analisys).
How many times was he wrong?

Then I will ask you again:
Who's analisys is on top of your reading list???

Kinda reminded me of this: https://andreitaga.wordpress.com/201...o-information/