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  • #987,941
  • May 8, 2015 2:53pm May 8, 2015 2:53pm
Quoting mitrapips
Pretty bad week. Made all the mistakes humanly possible. Looking forward to next week.
It happens. Its good to see you are doing rather well this year.
  • #987,942
  • May 8, 2015 3:35pm May 8, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting Forexville
{quote} It happens. Its good to see you are doing rather well this year.
Thanks, buddy.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #987,943
  • May 8, 2015 7:54pm May 8, 2015 7:54pm
Surprise for me. No big candle and my orders are still there in same condition where I left yesterday.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #987,944
  • May 8, 2015 8:46pm May 8, 2015 8:46pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} So, done for the day, got time. What are you talking about? .1% is not creeping up. I am not an adherent to that theory but to each his own. Seems like betting against the dollar has been the smart thing to do for the last month or so. There have been two times in history where the Fed has raised rates when real economic growth was below 2%. Once, recession within one quarter, the other time was within 3 quarters. Both were done during historically unique periods when inflation was a perceived hazardous threat. History says that even a tepid...
Scott the 2 times u mentioned was when inflation was high. To begin with....
Inflation now is pretty darn low and raising interest rates gradually as inflation rises is the best way to prevent inflation from getting out of hand too fast too soon. Interest rates in US is bound to go up and q1 bad data from weather effects wont stop it.

Remember greenspan on the dot com bubble? He wait too late to hike rates so his drastic 100bp hikes was the reason why the equity markets crashed hard...
I hope yellen isnt too stupid in playing the waiting game when inflation starts to show +0.1% is still a growth in inflation
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #987,945
  • May 9, 2015 4:35am May 9, 2015 4:35am
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  • #987,946
  • Edited 5:38am May 9, 2015 5:14am | Edited 5:38am
Euro QE, Ukraine and Gerxit is included in the current price?
no man's land
week
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  • #987,947
  • May 9, 2015 6:07am May 9, 2015 6:07am
Quoting mkvy
{quote} if your buying adjust your stops to the previous dip... if selling the the previous peak... zoom to 15 minutes if necessary ... yeah i got stopped out selling at NFP with only 30 pips, could have been 100 pips profit... but i dont mind... as long as a covered my ass... no loss
true lol.. should play with risk management better.. :nerd:
  • #987,948
  • May 9, 2015 6:16am May 9, 2015 6:16am
i am working o EUR/USD. i take the position on the basis of fundametanls not technicals analysis,
So, i start my analysis and compare to both currency

USD EUR
GDPYOY 3.00% 0.90%
Interest Rate 0.25% 0.05%
Inflation Rate -0.10% 0.00%
Jobless Rate 5.40% 11.30%

i know the fed want to hike the interest rate but the did't because the 1st quarter of 2015 is not giving well figure as expected. but overall the USD is strong the ERU then why in previous days the EUR is bullish.
Nothing is Perfect... Every Body is Right...
  • #987,949
  • May 9, 2015 6:37am May 9, 2015 6:37am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Scott the 2 times u mentioned was when inflation was high. To begin with.... Inflation now is pretty darn low and raising interest rates gradually as inflation rises is the best way to prevent inflation from getting out of hand too fast too soon. Interest rates in US is bound to go up and q1 bad data from weather effects wont stop it. Remember greenspan on the dot com bubble? He wait too late to hike rates so his drastic 100bp hikes was the reason why the equity markets crashed hard... I hope yellen isnt too stupid in playing the waiting...
That was a mostly reasonable response.

I generally agree. Caveat being increased risk of a recession and rather lame forecast of top rate and cycle.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #987,950
  • May 9, 2015 7:02am May 9, 2015 7:02am
Quoting Forexville
{quote} It happens. Its good to see you are doing rather well this year.
Hello Forexville. I'd like to ask you a general question about "correction". The word appears to be rather bias in nature, but at the same time, falls into what we see daily even on smaller tf. The question I have is if people "expect" correction, then why don't more people wager on the actual correction? It would appear that this "correction" on EU has been one of the most lethal ones over the last 15 months. What is your take on correction?
Leading by "Being an example" is hard to find then actual examples.
  • #987,951
  • Edited 12:13pm May 9, 2015 7:56am | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting English
{quote} Hello Forexville. I'd like to ask you a general question about "correction". The word appears to be rather bias in nature, but at the same time, falls into what we see daily even on smaller tf. The question I have is if people "expect" correction, then why don't more people wager on the actual correction? It would appear that this "correction" on EU has been one of the most lethal ones over the last 15 months. What is your take on correction?
If I may try to answer that question. 'Correction' is not born out of a collective decision people take when they think the price has gone enough in one direction. Instead, it is because the price has moved too much in one direction. Like an elastic band that is overstretched, it is born out of excessive buying/selling that makes the short or long ratio unsustainable. You can only know that the band is overstretched if you are observing it from outside. If you are yourself part of that system how will you ever know that the band is overstretched. Something like not feeling the earth is rotating on its axis. Or an ant on the back of a rotating tumbler. You need to to be detached from the system to first identify that the band is overstretched and may need to release some tension or in other words go through a "correction".

So the key thought is market participants create corrective move just by being part of the system. In the end the winners will be those who take the time out and try to come out of the system and be able to observe what is going on. And this happens across all time frames. If you are successful in being able to come out of the system and observe on M15 then you make money on countertrend moves on M15. If you can do that on monthlies you make money on that timeframe. Although the basic principle will remain the same across timeframes, on higher time frames, the driving force, as to why people become part of the system in the first place, will differ from those in smaller time frames. Higher timeframes will be influenced more by fundamental or intrinsic value of a currency.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #987,952
  • May 9, 2015 9:32am May 9, 2015 9:32am
Quoting genierex
USD EUR

GDPYOY 3.00% 0.90%
Interest Rate 0.25% 0.05%
Inflation Rate -0.10% 0.00%
Jobless Rate 5.40% 11.30%
How far it can go with this data we have got , but first let's see if EUR topped out for short for mid-long term positioning , not sure to carry a short or not let's see .
  • #987,953
  • May 9, 2015 12:05pm May 9, 2015 12:05pm
1.1035-65 is the support zone that needs to be broken b4 we go short.

ECB QE started in March the last times QE was announced a month or two later the Euro appreciated in to a long term (6 months or more) bull run.


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All Assets NAS100 GLD BTC AUS JPY GBP All Time Return: 18.7%
  • #987,954
  • May 9, 2015 12:38pm May 9, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} If I may try to answer that question. 'Correction' is not born out of a collective decision people take when they think the price has gone enough in one direction. Instead, it is because the price has moved too much in one direction. Like an elastic band that is overstretched, it is born out of excessive buying/selling that makes the short or long ratio unsustainable. You can only know that the band is overstretched if you are observing it from outside. If you are yourself part of that system how will you ever know that the band is overstretched....

Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts on the "correction". I've never looked at it as "being inside of the system"as you placed put it, but It surly made me think about correlation in a different way. I honestly would love to have the ability to swing as many people here do, but after reading your statement, I will most certainly try to at least learn.
We've been spoiled by this one sided market ( minus the last 30 days) and many people appear to be shorting more and more, which of course plays into the hand of "supply and demand" and herd trading. Prior to N.F.P. FF's market sentiment for EU was 55% sells and 45% buyers. With that said, I have found it interesting how during high impact news, when sentiment is so close (as aforementioned) the market usually closes with the same formation we have seen on the 5m and 15m on EU. What usually happens then after is a gap and run, which creates the illusion of a breakout.

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I'll be sure to find the aforementioned formation and post it here so we can see how it played out.
Leading by "Being an example" is hard to find then actual examples.
  • #987,955
  • Edited 1:18pm May 9, 2015 1:08pm | Edited 1:18pm
Quoting English
{quote} Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts on the "correction". I've never looked at it as "being inside of the system"as you placed put it, but It surly made me think about correlation in a different way. I honestly would love to have the ability to swing as many people here do, but after reading your statement, I will most certainly try to at least learn. We've been spoiled by this one sided market ( minus the last 30 days) and many people appear to be shorting more and more, which of course plays into the hand of "supply and demand"...
You are very welcome. This is how I interpret the pattern shown in your figure. The market somehow felt that it needs a short term pullback (the bearish trend seen since thursday) on the mid-term correction (the breakout from 1.096) of the long term bearish trend (parity). So right before the unemployment claims on thursday it started correcting (my first mistake was thinking that it was a buying opportunity and I won't list the rest). Do you really think the single unemployment claim was so good to warrant this kind of a pullback on the bullish uptrend? No*. It was simply an 'excuse' so to speak for the market that was already overstretched. Look what happened after that. Every bullish move was thwarted by heavy selling. Then came the NFP. Most of us expected before the release that there was no way but up. Then look what happened. The PA contained in the blue area simply shows that this sentiment which I believe was common was proved to be wrong. It brought back the PA to right where it was just before the NFP but not without some wild fluctuation in the form of a symmetric triangle - basically a damped oscillation type of a PA. I interpret this as suggestive of a dampening (at risk of conflating science and literature terminologies here) of the upward sentiment and indicative of resuming the downtrend next week. The volume was just not there to push it further down this week.

* When I was new to trading I used to think that green is good for currency etc etc. That cannot be further from the truth. I don't even look at the numbers these days. It does not help in any way. That does not mean I am always right as this week proved but knowing the numbers does not help me in any way.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #987,956
  • May 9, 2015 1:29pm May 9, 2015 1:29pm
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} You are very welcome. This is how I interpret the pattern shown in your figure. The market somehow felt that it needs a short term pullback (the bearish trend seen since thursday) on the mid-term correction (the breakout from 1.096) of the long term bearish trend (parity). So right before the unemployment claims on thursday it started correcting (my first mistake was thinking that it was a buying opportunity and I won't list the rest). Do you really think the single unemployment claim was so good to warrant this kind of a pullback on the...
+1 to your post. It would be great to see more post like yours as it would enlighten those to "think outside the box".
Leading by "Being an example" is hard to find then actual examples.
  • #987,957
  • May 9, 2015 3:30pm May 9, 2015 3:30pm
Quoting English
{quote} +1 to your post. It would be great to see more post like yours as it would enlighten those to "think outside the box".
Thanks. I will. Let's just hope we make money. Consistently. At the end of the day that is all that should matter.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #987,958
  • May 9, 2015 5:00pm May 9, 2015 5:00pm
Learn how to trade.

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  • #987,959
  • May 9, 2015 6:16pm May 9, 2015 6:16pm
Quoting rehorst
Learn how to trade. {image}
Then the goofy Swiss guys decide to throw a little wrench into the works...

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  • #987,960
  • May 10, 2015 12:38am May 10, 2015 12:38am
I wrote weekly FX news at http://blog.livedoor.jp/weeklyfxnews1/
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