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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #521
  • May 7, 2015 12:38am May 7, 2015 12:38am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Pre NFP from ADP at the annual minimum

The published report is not an official version nonfarma ADP was at minimum level in January 2014. If we talk about the dynamics - this is the fourth month when the figures is less than the previous period.
Markets typically do not take into account the precise number, which is practically never coincides with the official data and considering secondary dynamic position at this time it is not on the side of the indicator. Remain day before the official release of Non-Farm Payrolls.
Also on this day: Greece paid on a planned 200 million tranche of the IMF.
Today will start the UK parliamentary elections.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #522
  • May 7, 2015 7:35am May 7, 2015 7:35am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #523
  • May 7, 2015 7:38am May 7, 2015 7:38am
Friday
15:30
05/08/15
US Number of employed outside agriculture HOT!
(US Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades
______________________________________________________________________________________

In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to different degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
US Number of employed outside of agriculture
Date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast (US Non-Farm Employment Change)
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast (US Unemployment Rate)
Reaction trading pairs in points
Comments
06/03/2015 60 45 0.1 Growth couple
01/09/2015 12 0.1 40/15 to 40/15 spiking
5/12/2014 91 0 85 Gap 40-50 n. The pair
11.07.2014 -21 -0.1 81 sharp reaction to the fall of 81 points, but then rolled back to 35 puntkov reaction. We went for a couple of minutes after 50 p.
03/10/2014 33 68 -0.2 Growth couple
09.05.2014 -88 0 26-35 falling of pair
01.08.2014 -21 0.1 28-35 falling of pair
07/03/2014 73 28 0.2 Growth couple
06/06/2014 2 0.1 25-25 spiking
02/05/2014 50 70.5 -0.3 Growth couple
04/04/2014 0.1 -8 30-45 Fall couples rollback five minutes for all movement
07.03.2014 26.5 0.1 52 Height couple
02.07.2014 -67 -0.1 60-100 Palen pair from the third minute to complete rollback pozheraniya all primary pulse.
10.01.2014 -123 -0.3 55-> 40 rollback Conflict
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #524
  • May 7, 2015 7:45am May 7, 2015 7:45am
What is the News Hub Lockup like?

Shortly after dawn on most weekday mornings, a strange ritual takes place in Washington D.C. Two dozen select men and women leave their homes, grab their newspapers, and rush off to spend part of the day under virtual house arrest. Yes, house arrestas in incarceration. Precisely where they go to be confined can vary day to day. It could be in a dilapidated government building one morning and a high-tech office complex the next. Regardless of the location, what occurs in all these places is always the same. They enter a strict, prison-like setting where contact with the outside world is cut off.
One Friday morning, this same group climbs a long set of steps to the side entrance of a sleek, white-stone building on 3rd Avenue and C Street in the heart of the nation's capital. Armed guards greet them at the entrance for a security check; from this point on, everyone has to wear their ID tags at all times. The visitors proceed across a lobby, down a quiet narrow corridor, eventually stopping in front of a locked, heavy wooden door. A government official awaits them and quickly opens the door to reveal a drab, windowless, L-shaped room 40 feet long and some 10 feet across. It is empty except for two dozen plain-looking orange and chrome chairs, each resting alongside a row of narrow cubicle-like desks. A digital clock that rests high on the wall breaks time down to seconds. It is 7:30:15 a.m., and already 12 people have found their way into the "lock-up" room. More are expected within the next 15 minutes. All who enter dutifully sign their names on a special sheet.
Despite its austere appearance, there is an atmosphere of calm in the room, at least for now. Some visitors talk excitedly about the previous night's televised basketball game. Others are either chatting on cell phones or checking their Palm Pilots for messages. A few keep to themselves by catching up on the morning paper or downing a quick muffin and coffee. Everyone in the room, however, makes a point of always knowing the time, with some people eyeing the digital clock so frequently that their actions may be mistaken for nervous tics.
As the time approaches 8 a.m., there is a palpable change in mood. Gone now are the sounds of light conversation; these sounds are replaced by the din of laptops firing up. Everyone appears to be focused on what is about to occur.
At 7:55 a.m. sharp, a government official walks in and picks up a wall phone to call the Naval Observatory, home to the Vice President of the United States. It is also the location of the ultra-accurate atomic clock. She listens intently for a few seconds and then abruptly hangs up without saying a word. The individual then inserts a key into a lock on the wall, which allows her to adjust the digital clock to the precise second. With the correct time now set, the official then turns around to make a terse announcement.
"Please turn off all cell phones and Palm Pilots, and disconnect laptops from your telephone lines."
To make sure everyone complies, the official walks across the room and eyes each desk. Meanwhile a second federal employee arrives carrying copies of a highly sensitive government report. Each one is placed facedown on an empty desk.
Then it begins.
At precisely 8 a.m., the door to the lock-up room clicks shut. From this point on, all those inside are out of touch with the rest of the world. No one is permitted to leave. No calls or messages can come into or out of the room. Security is tight. A guard stands by outside, ready to use force if anyone attempts to sneak out.
What secret is the government protecting? Is the CIA about to begin a classified briefing on intelligence activities? Are Congressional investigators huddling to hear the newest terrorist threat? No. All these precautions are taken for one reason. The government is about to release numbers. Statistics. More precisely, economic statistics. The visitors in the room are business reporters representing news organizations from around the world, and this morning they're working out of the Department of Labor's secure press room.
Why such tight secrecy? Because in the next few seconds, these journalists will be the first to lay their eyes on one of the country's most sensitive economic measuresthe monthly report on employment conditions. It can shed fresh light on whether the U.S. economy is growing or facing a slowdown. Did the number of Americans who have jobs rise or fall in the latest month? Have hourly wages gone up or did they drop? Did people work more hours or less? These statistics might not seem particularly earthshaking to most Americans, but they can and do whip the global stock, bond, and currency markets into a frenzy. For individual investors and professional money managers, the information in the jobs report can mean the difference between having a winning or losing portfolio. It also explains the need for the security measures. Individuals getting such hot figures ahead of time can make a quick bundle of money because they know something of which no one else in the financial markets is yet aware. To prevent such abuses, the government guards these and dozens of other key economic indicators as tightly as a military base. It also implements a carefully controlled procedure to disseminate sensitive economic news.
8:00:00 The instant the door is shut, reporters dive in to grab the latest release on employment conditions, which up to now had been facedown. They have just 30 minutes to read, digest, and write their stories on how the job market changed during the previous month. Most of the journalists arrived that morning with the expectation that the employment release would carry dismal economic news, with the number of people without jobs risinga troubling sign the economy was weakening. At least that was the opinion of most professional forecasters whom these reporters consulted just days earlier.
But on this particular morning, the employment report stuns everyone. Those in the lock-up room read with amazement that companies actually hired workers in far greater numbers than anyone expected. Moreover, other figures inside the report appear to corroborate signs the economy is doing quite well. Wages are rising and factory overtime is increasing. Far from slowing, the latest evidence indicates the economy is actually picking up steam. It is astounding news of which the rest of the world is yet unaware.
As the digital clock continues its silent countdown, reporters working on the story suddenly face some urgent questions. What's really happening in the economy? Why were so many "experts" caught off guard? What does this mean for future inflation and interest rates? How might the stock, bond, and currency markets react to the news?
Though the latest jobs report was unexpected, these journalists are not completely unprepared. As is their routine, a day or two earlier they showered private economists with questions that covered a variety of hypothetical employment scenarios. What does it mean if the job market worsens? What if it actually improves? Now the reporters are frantically searching through their interview notes to help them file their stories.
8:28:00 A Labor Department worker in the lock-up room notifies television reporters that they can now leave under escort to prepare for their live 8:30 broadcast of the jobs report.
For the remaining journalists in the room, there is just a brief warning: "Two minutes left!" By now, most have pieced together their initial version of the storythe headline, the opening sentences, key numbers, and the implications for the economy. All that's left are some last-minute fact checking and a word tweak here and there.
8:29:00 "One minute. You can open your telephone linesBUT DO NOT TRANSMIT!"
The level of tension is not just high in the lock-up room, for at that moment, money managers and traders in New York, Chicago, Tokyo, Hong Kong, London, Paris, and Frankfurt are riveted to their computer screens, anxiously waiting for the release of the crucial jobs report. It's a stomach-churning time for them because investment decisions that involve hundreds of billions of dollars will be made the instant the latest employment news flashes across their monitors. Why such worldwide interest in how jobs fare in America? For one, many foreign investors own U.S. stocks and bonds, and their values can rise or fall based on what the job report says. Second, the international economy is now so tightly interconnected that a weak or strong jobs report in the U.S. can directly impact business activity in other countries. If joblessness in America climbs, consumers will likely purchase fewer cars from Germany, wine from France, and clothing from Indonesia. In contrast, a jump in employment means households will have more income to spend on imports, and this can stimulate foreign economies.
8:29:30 "Thirty seconds!" The fingers of reporters hover over their computer's Send button, ready to dispatch the latest employment news to the world. On-air reporters are also prepared to deliver the news live.
8:29:50 An official counts the final seconds out loud.
"Ten . . . nine . . . eight . . . seven . . . six . . . five . . . four . . . three . . . two . . . one!"
8:30:00 "Transmit!" Reporters simultaneously hit the Send buttons on their keyboards. In seconds, electronic news carriers, including Bloomberg, AP, Reuters, and Japan's Kyodo News, release their stories. Television and cable news stations, such as CNBC, Bloomberg TV, CNN, and MSNBC broadcast the report live. A second or two later, computer screens around the globe carry the first surprising words: "Jobs unexpectedly rose the previous month, with the unemployment rate falling instead of rising!"
For journalists in the lock-up room, the stress-filled half-hour grind is over, and they are now free to leave. But the work has just begun for those in the investment community.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #525
  • May 7, 2015 6:15pm May 7, 2015 6:15pm
Thanks vvFish for the update ... much appreciate. How do you set up your NFP for tonight?
  • #526
  • May 7, 2015 6:35pm May 7, 2015 6:35pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #527
  • May 7, 2015 6:39pm May 7, 2015 6:39pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

US Number of employed outside of agriculture
US Non-Farm Employment Change

The last release introduced a spoon of tar in a seemingly full barrel of honey, these capital gains frustrated market participants: the expected gain of 245K, NFP showed in fact just 126K gain for the month. These negative data have become almost the starting point for the dollar at a April.
Of course not Pharma united, there was still a lot of events that has developed into a common pot: this weak data preliminary estimate of GDP first quarter, and soft Minutes of the Fed, and the weak retail sales quarterly, in which the integrity of the direction taken away / take away markets from the idea that Fed interest rate can be raised in June 2015.
What fresher ... so this unofficial release of weak data PHARMA version ADP, mediocre employment data components ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (56.7 vs. 56.6), and care less comfortable 50 from the Employment ISM Manufacturing PMI (48.3 vs. 50.0).
But after a "rollback" of the US first quarter blamed on seasonality, it is time to evaluate the latest data already the second.
It would be more comfortable to us. We would be more comfortable, oddly enough on the positive when adjusted negative market would have received (unexpectedly) slap in the face of an optimist. For this scenario also regains a purely psychological factor and the logic of the last release, March 126K will be reviewed in this release, respectively, the smallest revision "up" might well encourage the quotations on the background of the same positive growth this fact above its forecast of news (here psychologically desirable "reconsider" with extremely low 126K higher). But facts are facts, following the publication on the air.
Scenario "fact lower than the forecast," believe me, when the rest of the packet data (today and will touch) also will market with a bang, but let's not forget ...
Report complicated as bears packet data you have already learned:
US Change in NonFarm Payrolls (itself non-farm)
US Unemployment Rate (the interest rate)
US Average Hourly Earnings (M / M) (sn)
US NFP Revision (revision last release)
Let's hope for an optimistic scenario and take care of yourself.

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #528
  • May 7, 2015 7:10pm May 7, 2015 7:10pm
Morning scalping
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #529
  • May 8, 2015 1:37am May 8, 2015 1:37am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #530
  • May 8, 2015 5:40am May 8, 2015 5:40am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #531
  • May 8, 2015 11:20am May 8, 2015 11:20am
as i was taking a london close sh8t, good luck
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  • #532
  • May 8, 2015 6:56pm May 8, 2015 6:56pm
Monday
14:00
05/11/15
GB The official rate of asthma
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #533
  • May 10, 2015 12:01am May 10, 2015 12:01am
Quoting vvFish
{image}{image}
Mr Fish,

Could you shed light on why you decided to trade USDJPY instead of EURUSD or USDCHF ???

Thanks,
TT
  • #534
  • May 10, 2015 12:32pm May 10, 2015 12:32pm
Monday
11:00
05/11/15
NO The core consumer price index
(NO Core CPI), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% chance of trading

Monday
14:00
05/11/15
GB The official rate of asthma
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #535
  • May 10, 2015 12:38pm May 10, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting TerryTibbs
{quote} Mr Fish, Could you shed light on why you decided to trade USDJPY instead of EURUSD or USDCHF ??? Thanks, TT
My friend, for what number you want to know?
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #536
  • May 10, 2015 12:39pm May 10, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting vvFish
Monday 11:00 05/11/15 NO The core consumer price index (NO Core CPI), Norway, EURNOK Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release. 15% chance of trading Monday 14:00 05/11/15 GB The official rate of asthma (GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD Average reaction when the trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release. 1% probability trades.
Good luck vvFish for a start of a new week! Let's goooo
  • #537
  • May 10, 2015 12:59pm May 10, 2015 12:59pm
Quoting sEit89
{quote} Good luck vvFish for a start of a new week! Let's goooo
Thank you too, good luck!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #538
  • May 11, 2015 1:04am May 11, 2015 1:04am
USDNOK
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #539
  • May 11, 2015 4:04am May 11, 2015 4:04am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} My friend, for what number you want to know?
for the trade you took on UJ? Post #531
  • #540
  • May 11, 2015 4:13am May 11, 2015 4:13am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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