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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #501
  • May 6, 2015 12:28am May 6, 2015 12:28am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

GB The index of activity in the services sector
GB Services PM

On May 7, the UK will hold parliamentary elections, and on May 8 will be announced on their official results up to this point GBP remains quite "thin", which is confirmed by preliminary "similar" publication PMI construction and manufacturing sector.
GB industry activity index of 51.9 against 54.6 (-2.7)
GB pmi index in construction 54.2 vs. 57.4 (-3.2)
GBP reaction when it is "a setback."
The general trend of decline, supposedly marked, and it would be nice to keep it relevant deviations for the forthcoming GB Services PMI.
But on the eve of Thursday and standby Non-Farm this Friday is further oneself.

In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to different degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
GB The index of activity in the services sector
Date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast
Reaction trading pairs in points
Comments
07/04/2015 1.9 - spiking market
03/04/2015 -0.8 6 No reaction
04/02/2015 5 0.9 No reaction
06/01/2015 -2.7 14 studded with sharp drop in half-reaction
03/12/2014 20 2.1 Spike spiking market
05/11/2014 -2.3 19 small drop reaction
03/10/2014 -0.3 6 No reaction
09.03.2014 February 13 Mikrorost
08/05/2014 26 1.1 Growth couple
07/03/2014 11 0.6 No reaction
06/04/2014 17 0.4 Growth couple
05/06/2014 7 0.9 No reaction
04.03.2014 The fall of -0.6 23 pairs
05/03/2014 5 0.2 No reaction
02/05/2014 13 0.7 growth, the spike 42 spike the pair in the first seconds - then a sharp pullback
01.06.2014 The fall of -1.5 19 pairs
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #502
  • May 6, 2015 3:17am May 6, 2015 3:17am
At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories. Check expected number a couple of minutes before the data comes out

**********************************************************
Analysts Forecast 1.1 Million-Barrel Gain in Crude Stocks
Published: May 05, 2015

By Nicole Friedman

NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to rise in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 10 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have risen by 1.1 million barrels, on average, in the week ended May 1.

Eight analysts expect stockpiles to rise, while another two expect a fall. Forecasts range from a rise of 3 million barrels to a drop of 2 million barrels.

The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 500,000 barrels, according to analysts. Six analysts expect a gain, with three expecting a drop and another seeing no change. Estimates range from a rise of 2.2 million barrels to a drop of 2 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to fall by 200,000 barrels. Four analysts expect a decline, while four see an increase and two see no change. Forecasts range from a drop of 3 million barrels to a gain of 1 million barrels.

Refinery use is seen rising 0.6 percentage point to 91.9% of capacity, based on EIA data. Nine analysts expect a rise and one didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from a rise of 0.3 point to a gain of 1.0 point.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for the same week showed a decline in crude supplies of 1.5 million barrels, according to market sources.


Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital 2.4 2.2 0.9 0.3
Citi Futures Perspective 1.5 -1.0 unch 0.5
Confluence Investment Management 1.0 unch -1.0 0.7
Energy Management Institute 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
Frost & Sullivan -1.5 -2.0 1.0 0.5
IAF Advisors 2.0 2.0 unch n/a
Price Futures Group -2.0 2.0 -3.0 1.0
Ritterbusch and Associates 3.0 0.5 0.6 0.7
Schneider Electric 2.0 1.5 -0.1 0.5
Tradition Energy 1.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.5

AVERAGE 1.1 0.5 -0.2 0.6

(Figures in millions of barrels except for refining capacity, which is reported in percentage points. For analysts providing forecasts in a range, the average of the upper and lower ends of the range is used.)
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #503
  • May 6, 2015 3:38am May 6, 2015 3:38am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #504
  • May 6, 2015 4:06am May 6, 2015 4:06am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #505
  • May 6, 2015 9:05am May 6, 2015 9:05am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #506
  • May 6, 2015 9:36am May 6, 2015 9:36am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #507
  • May 6, 2015 9:43am May 6, 2015 9:43am
Thursday
4:30
05/07/15
AU number of employed
(AU Employment Change), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Thursday
11:00
05/07/15
NO Interest
(NO Interest Rate Decision), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when the trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
05/07/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #508
  • May 6, 2015 9:51am May 6, 2015 9:51am
vvFish congratz! Making almost 10k$ every day it's quite funny. Keep going so well!
  • #509
  • May 6, 2015 10:36am May 6, 2015 10:36am
Quoting sEit89
vvFish congratz! Making almost 10k$ every day it's quite funny. Keep going so well!
Thank you, I wish you the same success.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #510
  • May 6, 2015 1:10pm May 6, 2015 1:10pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #511
  • May 6, 2015 1:39pm May 6, 2015 1:39pm
continues to fall
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #512
  • May 6, 2015 1:55pm May 6, 2015 1:55pm
Good luck everybody!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_17.png Size: 201 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #513
  • May 6, 2015 2:15pm May 6, 2015 2:15pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Unemployment in New Zealand at the annual maximum, and it is bad. What about OCR?

Published data have shown the negative labor market gains relative analysts' forecasts, which caused instant sellout NZD.
The unemployment rate at 5.8%, the highest in the last year, while the index fell to the Employment Change 9 month lows: 0.7% gain.
Based on such weak data, some analysts do not throw towards lower interest rates, for example, RBC began talking about a possible interest rate cut in June. About the same rhetoric about «official cash rate» and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group.
- Employment Change Q / Q 0.7% vs. 0.8% (previously 1.2%)
- Employment Change Y / Y 3.2% vs. 3.3% (Previous 3.5%, Rev. 3.6%)
- Participation Rate Q / Q 69.6% versus 69.4% (previously 69.7%, Rev. 69.4%)
- Private Wages Ex. Overtime Q / Q 0.3% vs. 0.4% (previously 0.5%)
- Private Wages Inc. Overtime Q / Q 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (previously 0.5%)
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #514
  • May 6, 2015 2:18pm May 6, 2015 2:18pm
AU number of employed
AU Employment Change

The bank went to the second in this year's interest rate cut. Investors are not ready to make new bets on further scenario RBA monetary policy, patient vyzhdut labor market data, and intelligent wait quarterly report, published this Friday.
Despite the pessimism of the Australian economic outlook, the last two releases we have seen the improvements of conditions of the labor market.
The main scourge of the market participants is an Australian publication delay, which is expressed here explicitly.

In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to different degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
AU number of employed
Date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast
Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
Reaction trading pairs in points
Comments
04.16.2015 22.7 0.2 50 Height couple
12/03/2015 22 0.6 -0.1 The sharp pullback
12/02/2015 52 0.2 -7.2 Falling aggregate general direction indicators
15.01.2015 32.4 0.2 60 Height couple
11/06/2014 0% -19.98 20/20 Spikes 20 n.
09/10/2014 0 -45.2% 18-32 Body 18, a shadow falling from 32 back. The resource has changed the formula warned about prior to bidding.
09/11/2014 106 -0.2% 46 Height couple
08.07.2014 13.5 0.4 30 Fall couple
10/07/2014 3.9 0.1 Spike 25 Spike up to 25
12.06.2014 -14.8 0 8-31 sharp reaction to the roll back to 31 10 n. Of the initial pulse
05/08/2014 5.4 0.1 26 Height couple
10/04/2014 44 15.6 -0.3 Growth couple
03/13/2014 0 32.3 55 Height couple
02.13.2014 -18.7 0.1 60 Fall couple
16.01.2014 The fall of -32.6 0 60 couples delay
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #515
  • May 6, 2015 8:39pm May 6, 2015 8:39pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_19.png Size: 10 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_18.png Size: 144 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #516
  • May 6, 2015 8:53pm May 6, 2015 8:53pm
scalping after a news
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #517
  • May 6, 2015 10:24pm May 6, 2015 10:24pm
good start to the day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_23.png Size: 115 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #518
  • May 7, 2015 1:11am May 7, 2015 1:11am
Quoting vvFish
good start to the day {image}
Good morning vvFish, very nice trades!
  • #519
  • May 7, 2015 1:14am May 7, 2015 1:14am
AUD unemployment rate
Attached Image
  • #520
  • May 7, 2015 1:30am May 7, 2015 1:30am
Quoting sEit89
{quote} Good morning vvFish, very nice trades!
Thank you my friend, too, have a nice day.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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