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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,701
  • May 6, 2015 10:36am May 6, 2015 10:36am
Quoting Magix
{quote}The worst thing about forums...everybody gets a chance to post. The best thing about forums...everybody gets a chance to post.
You know- when I first read this, I was in strong agreement....every hour that passes though, I disagree more and more.
  • #134,702
  • May 6, 2015 10:40am May 6, 2015 10:40am
Quoting Pharm0r
Just fired off a long on JPY watching this close..
close was good
  • #134,703
  • May 6, 2015 10:44am May 6, 2015 10:44am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} If Gator's right, this will be a gradual, but long lasting turn in favor of the US due to energy, which is bullish the USD in the long run. But, the Saudis and the Chinese will get hurt most. They are sitting on trillions in reserves and it's in the interest of the leadership to keep the populace happy, which they can do by spending some of that money. Actually they already started buying less US debt last year, which meant less demand for Euros because they didn't have to diversify out of dollars as much as before. But they only have about...
Ah, I see what you mean. At least I think I do.

Well, I happen to be Chinese, hehe...

I don't know. I hope my country is not using all those USD to speculate in the FX market, hehe...

I think they should spend it on real economy. Investing in infrastructure, R&D (we don't wanna be considered as "theives" for another 30 years I guess), social security, etc. Btw they are already establising another international bank together to fuel developing countries' infrastructures, aren't they? Isn't it lovely. Build a better world! With more investments in real economy, more demand of commodity and labor will be seen. More demand, higher prices, higher supply, higher employment, higher income, higher spending, then back to higher demand, and the circle goes on and on, providing that the financial guys don't do crazy things again. You know the drill.

Back to fx though, a stronger USD only makes the governments richer, cos they got sooooo much of it!!! So any sane individual or institution would want to hold USD instead of EUR now, at least for now. I believe governments aren't play the games here with this EU pair. They got other things to worry about, for example, depreciating RMB again, against who? USD of course....
  • #134,704
  • May 6, 2015 11:05am May 6, 2015 11:05am
Quoting Pharm0r
I didn't say anything regarding this session
I know you didn't.

Honestly, I'm not holding bets for specific mid-term prediction for the eur/usd until certain events go away (elections, Greek issue, etc.), which is why I'm sticking to short term expectations. Otherwise, I'd have nothing to say, really. So no, I'm not saying you're wrong or anything-just offering my two bits, for what they're worth.

And curiously enough, I've noticed a lot of newcomers to trading forex often aim for day trading/intraday trading. I never really understood that, since holding currencies for longer periods (i.e. swing trading) is usually safer in my humble opinion.

Edit: It's getting quiet here, and those who post generally try to offer something instead of spamming useless things. Could it be? Maybe there's still some hope left for the eur/usd thread.
  • #134,705
  • May 6, 2015 11:06am May 6, 2015 11:06am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} If Gator's right, this will be a gradual, but long lasting turn in favor of the US due to energy, which is bullish the USD in the long run. But, the Saudis and the Chinese will get hurt most. They are sitting on trillions in reserves and it's in the interest of the leadership to keep the populace happy, which they can do by spending some of that money. Actually they already started buying less US debt last year, which meant less demand for Euros because they didn't have to diversify out of dollars as much as before. But they only have about...
Sorry, forgot to mention the Saudis. I cannot know what they are doing. But the market has been saying that they increase supply of oil to reduce the price (cos they are so rich and they can), in order to kill US shale oil productions...well, it has worked a bit as you can see.
  • #134,706
  • May 6, 2015 11:06am May 6, 2015 11:06am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} You know- when I first read this, I was in strong agreement....every hour that passes though, I disagree more and more.
Remember the "Benefits" of using the ignore feature.

Or...read the forum like you would a pr0n mag...look for the pictures and see if the comments are worth reading from there.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,707
  • May 6, 2015 11:08am May 6, 2015 11:08am
and I miss Hatch.

That's right. I said it.
  • #134,708
  • May 6, 2015 11:18am May 6, 2015 11:18am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Ah, I see what you mean. At least I think I do. Well, I happen to be Chinese, hehe... I don't know. I hope my country is not using all those USD to speculate in the FX market, hehe... I think they should spend it on real economy. Investing in infrastructure, R&D (we don't wanna be considered as "theives" for another 30 years I guess), social security, etc. Btw they are already establising another international bank together to fuel developing countries' infrastructures, aren't they? Isn't it lovely. Build a better world! With...
Not to speculate. To use to build up China so it isn't so reliant on exports and dirty/low skill industries to drive its economy (and in the case of the Saudis, on oil), but can move up the production ladder and depend more on internal consumption. But then they'll have to use part of your savings to invest heavily in China to finance the transition.

Suppose you have dollars and Euros in your mattress saved up for a rainy day, and now you see a big storm coming and you think you had better sell some of your stash so you can stock up on some things for your house (but you see it's approaching very slowly so you still have some time left). When are you going to sell your dollars and when are you going to sell the Euros? When you can get the most for them or the least?(Even better if you have so many that you can influence the market in your favor too.)

They are already doing it. Chinese and Saudi foreign reserves already started declining last year - one of the presumed reasons the Euro fell - because they had less need to diversify into Euros. But if they actually start selling and not just buying less, then what happens, considering that they hold only 20% in Euros?
  • #134,709
  • May 6, 2015 11:20am May 6, 2015 11:20am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I know you didn't. Honestly, I'm not holding bets for specific mid-term prediction for the eur/usd until certain events go away (elections, Greek issue, etc.), which is why I'm sticking to short term expectations. Otherwise, I'd have nothing to say, really. So no, I'm not saying you're wrong or anything-just offering my two bits, for what they're worth. And curiously enough, I've noticed a lot of newcomers to trading forex often aim for day trading/intraday trading. I never really understood that, since holding currencies...
holding requires deep pocket for healthy earnings , newcomers and deep pockets is contradictory...

hoom.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #134,710
  • May 6, 2015 11:44am May 6, 2015 11:44am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Patience...AUDUSD is one of the best to watch for your S&D zones. Given the movements in Non-Aussie sessions, there are typically a lot of opportunities that present. {image}

Geaux Figga!
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,711
  • May 6, 2015 11:57am May 6, 2015 11:57am
Quoting Jure86
{quote} Hey, sisse! 1.13xx still valid or it went to high and this level is broken? Do you think 1.136x is the high of the day? Thank you!
Sisse, may I know why you don't answer?
  • #134,712
  • May 6, 2015 12:15pm May 6, 2015 12:15pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} holding requires deep pocket for healthy earnings , newcomers and deep pockets is contradictory... hoom.
You don't need deep pockets to hold for a week or so. I started forex with just a couple hundred dollars and built it up to a sustainable part time income. And some pairs offer positive swap, so it's worth holding them.

Unless of course, you're referring to holding pairs for months on end. That's a different story altogether.
  • #134,713
  • May 6, 2015 12:16pm May 6, 2015 12:16pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Not to speculate. To use to build up China so it isn't so reliant on exports and dirty/low skill industries to drive its economy (and in the case of the Saudis, on oil), but can move up the production ladder and depend more on internal consumption. But then they'll have to use part of your savings to invest heavily in China to finance the transition. Suppose you have dollars and Euros in your mattress saved up for a rainy day, and now you see a big storm coming and you think you had better sell some of your stash so you can stock up on some...
Selling USD to buy what? EUR? Gold? Or to invest in real economy?
Your assumption is that the government wants to SAVE in a safer way than holding USD???? How?? The thing is, China should stop saving now, or less saving. We have saved for like centries. Now it is time to spend. On real tangible things, not another fiat currency.

We seem to be going around and around on the topic, hehe...you are saying the governments are selling USD, but to buy what???? For what purpose???
I am saying that they love strong USD because it makes them richer and can spend more on real economy, not just their own countries, but around the globe.
Next time the Chinese government manipulates RMB, it will be selling RMB, and what is better than USD to buy??

Are we going to buy some EUR? Yeah, maybe when it is 1.02-0.8 level against dollar, because then Eur has room for appreciation. Don't forget the market believes that EUR has been overvalued for quite a while.

The only parties that are really afraid now, is the USD denominated debt issuers, which are plenty. And FED knows hiking rates will have a great impact on them, globally. That's why it takes FED so long to tell people that the hike is coming, but it will be baby steps, so don't be afraid, but be prepared.
  • #134,714
  • May 6, 2015 12:17pm May 6, 2015 12:17pm
Weekly chart. If today closes above 1295 bulls will have taken the 23 fib of the last big swing down. But there's a big cluster of mids just above that.
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  • #134,715
  • May 6, 2015 12:25pm May 6, 2015 12:25pm
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Selling USD to buy what? EUR? Gold? Or to invest in real economy? Your assumption is that the government wants to SAVE in a safer way than holding USD???? How?? The thing is, China should stop saving now, or less saving. We have saved for like centries. Now it is time to spend. On real tangible things, not another fiat currency. We seem to be going around and around on the topic, hehe...you are saying the governments are selling USD, but to buy what???? For what purpose??? I am saying that they love strong USD because it makes them richer...
No, I assume they will want to spend - to invest in the real economy, and in the people (buying know-how, education, more sophisticated industries etc) to stop a slow-down that would otherwise be caused by US getting more competitive, and that they will use the big pile of saved dollars to do it.
  • #134,716
  • Edited 3:06pm May 6, 2015 2:54pm | Edited 3:06pm
EU completed and now stalled @ the monthly 1/4 retrace, closed on the micro pip. This was posted, and re-posted in advance. This isnt a bad place for bears to aim for a LL

Higher time frame closes are stronger obviously, bears about to get a second H4.

Not a place bulls want to get caught. There's better lower.
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  • #134,717
  • May 6, 2015 2:58pm May 6, 2015 2:58pm
Quoting Pharm0r
There's other levels besides 1.2xx, that's not concrete the 3/4 mentioned could be it, yearly open as well I don't like going this far out into the future- too many variables. The monthly is the smoking gun though. Most times, the monthly doesn't lie, perhaps it could this time. I'm just an idiot waiting for it to rain.
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} It seems to me we expect the same thing....maybe there's a misunderstanding through text... Guess this will be the freebie of the year- if anyone loses money on these it's not my fault! and it's subject to change..... That red 3/4 could also be a FU....but yearly open test does seem more likely. Mentioned we never tested it a few months ago....when hatch mentioned the same, or something in that nature {image}
Relevant
  • #134,718
  • May 6, 2015 3:00pm May 6, 2015 3:00pm
Bulls just closed it exactly one pip above, but it's a spinner w/ a HH

WTF happens now? I don't know. Maybe Gator or Hatch does. One hasn't been here in the last week.

I'm shopping for longs lower, a short here isn't a bad trade though. I suspect the daily and then the weekly will decide what to do with .13446
  • #134,719
  • May 6, 2015 3:17pm May 6, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} You don't need deep pockets to hold for a week or so. I started forex with just a couple hundred dollars and built it up to a sustainable part time income. And some pairs offer positive swap, so it's worth holding them. Unless of course, you're referring to holding pairs for months on end. That's a different story altogether.
Depends on your leverage and lot size. Sometimes holding to even 0.01 lots can yield you hundreds of dollars. In a tricky situation. I never understood why traders hold only 1 position per pair unless they are truly scalping. What you are looking at is a probability landscape with numerous local minima and maxima. Just because your arbitrary stop or takeprofit is not hit doesn't mean you should close out your position. I think this is a big mistake.
The landscape is a stochastic one and it takes a lot of arrogance to say that price WILL move one way or another. You can only say at this point in time and in this scenario the price has 55% chance of going this way. You can't say when the price will go a magic amount up over which period. If you have multiple positions you are sort of compounding your predictions, if that makes sense.
  • #134,720
  • May 6, 2015 3:24pm May 6, 2015 3:24pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Bulls just closed it exactly one pip above, but it's a spinner w/ a HH WTF happens now? I don't know. Maybe Gator or Hatch does. One hasn't been here in the last week. I'm shopping for longs lower, a short here isn't a bad trade though. I suspect the daily and then the weekly will decide what to do with .13446
They probably won't take out those mids I posted in the post above on the first try (for sure not today). But I have this (the mofo here is in about the same location as the start of the weekly mids zone in the post above) and so far it's been acting real nice.
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