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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,681
  • May 6, 2015 7:35am May 6, 2015 7:35am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} I keep seeing people calling 1.2 level. I mean, technically, maybe yes, I don't know. I am not a pro in TA. But the FA is very very prone to the down side at the moment. Especially we are not yet in June...1.2 might be in play after the actual announcement of hike...don't you think? They didn't take June off the table btw, althought market expects Sep...but I somehow feel FED is getting a bit "impatient"...if they really delay it too long, they might get manipulated by the "data"/market again. FED decides it is forward looking and the leadership...
Suppose that Gator is right in his FA, and this recovery is a 40 year reset in favor of the dollar because of energy, and not one based on a credit bubble like the last. Suppose also that he's right that a mule that shits fast don't shit long (or
vice versa in this case)? What countries get hurt by that? What happens in countries like that when
the governments don't keep their social contracts with the population? If you were the leadership
of such a country what would you be doing with your trillions in reserves (which are 20% Euro, most
of the rest dollars), and more importantly, how would you go about doing it?
  • #134,682
  • May 6, 2015 7:40am May 6, 2015 7:40am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Nah...I'm fucking hammered! {quote}
Should have held that AU
  • #134,683
  • May 6, 2015 7:43am May 6, 2015 7:43am
1.12908.....no break no shake
  • #134,684
  • May 6, 2015 7:56am May 6, 2015 7:56am
Quoting palinco
{quote} I think it will go towards 1.2xx just to create some false impression that the bull has come to stay. Then it will fall towards parity
If that is the game they are playing now, then it has already began to work, hasn't it? People already started to call for 1.2. On the oil market they just created a yearly high, and the talks of the bull market already spreaded. I don't know about oil prices though. Stan Druckermiller said the best cure of low price is low price.
I cannot know whether 1.2 is in their books, so I stay skeptical and won't easily go long.
Basing on the game theory, if 1.2 is in the big boys' books, they would need everybody on board supporting the price, but if one guy cheats (i.e. sell), more guys will start cheating, so in the end, the price will go down because no one keeps playing the game anymore. And more people will start to be afraid of missing the train and jumping in.
They might be united until 1.15 level, but above that, who can trust who? Wall street boys know don't fight the FED.

But anyway, I like your call of 1.09 before anything irrational happening, hehe...as unfortunately I am one of those early bears...lack of experience...I will learn.
  • #134,685
  • May 6, 2015 8:09am May 6, 2015 8:09am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Suppose that Gator is right in his FA, and this recovery is a 40 year reset in favor of the dollar because of energy, and not one based on a credit bubble like the last. Suppose also that he's right that a mule that shits fast don't shit long (or vice versa in this case)? What countries get hurt by that? What happens in countries like that when the governments don't keep their social contracts with the population? If you were the leadership of such a country what would you be doing with your trillions in reserves (which are 20% Euro, most...
Sorry, but I don't understand your questions. But doesn't matter. I am just a USD bull, but with lots of respects to the market's opinions. I mean who knows? who in the world really knows for sure? It is just a higher probability.
  • #134,686
  • Edited 8:37am May 6, 2015 8:24am | Edited 8:37am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Sorry, but I don't understand your questions. But doesn't matter. I am just a USD bull, but with lots of respects to the market's opinions. I mean who knows? who in the world really knows for sure? It is just a higher probability.
If Gator's right, this will be a gradual, but long lasting turn in favor of the US due to energy, which is bullish the USD in the long run. But, the Saudis and the Chinese will get hurt most. They are sitting on trillions in reserves and it's in the interest of the leadership to keep the populace happy, which they can do by spending some of that money. Actually they already started buying less US debt last year, which meant less demand for Euros because they didn't have to diversify out of dollars as much as before. But they only have about 20% in Euros, most of the rest is dollars. So even though FA may be long term USD bullish what happens when the Saudis and Chinese start selling off their reserves? And whats their best strategy to do it? ( A pile of money that large has never been seen before but I suspect it has the ability to make the market behave in ways we'd otherwise consider 'irrational')
  • #134,687
  • May 6, 2015 8:25am May 6, 2015 8:25am
Quoting sisse
...For the eur/usd, bulls are starting to cough ... Until US reports and NY a breach to the 1.13xx handle wide open on minions and "early bears" stops getting hit above 1.126x but the real deal come with NFP later this week to confirm a wide range in play. sisse
As expected for NY, test on highs after running 1.126x. Tracking NY cut in for options expiring at the 1.13xx handle and to set the High of the day and probably week on the run of stops. Tracking very closely a rejection of highs for a play 1.098x with NFP...

GL all the rest of the week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,688
  • May 6, 2015 8:44am May 6, 2015 8:44am
Quoting Pharm0r
1.12908.....no break no shake
I have a 'mofu' target of 133x. Looks like it's going to get hit. (I think Gator does too if I remember his post right.)
  • #134,689
  • May 6, 2015 8:56am May 6, 2015 8:56am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Should have held that AU
Patience...AUDUSD is one of the best to watch for your S&D zones.

Given the movements in Non-Aussie sessions, there are typically a lot of opportunities that present.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,690
  • May 6, 2015 9:07am May 6, 2015 9:07am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Thanks. I may add another one at 1.1344 and SL will be 1.1380 for all. TP is around 1.0980
Added at 1.1340.This one is the last one. No more adding.
  • #134,691
  • May 6, 2015 9:14am May 6, 2015 9:14am
Just fired off a long on JPY

watching this close..
  • #134,692
  • Edited 10:40am May 6, 2015 9:53am | Edited 10:40am
Quoting hoom
{quote} okey , I see that you have 1.2 in your charts ... well I don't have levels beyond 1.13 unless we clear this area - almost done with rejection of 1.10xx - my next reference is a daily close above 1.122x for an attempt to 1.137x .. extension 1.145x .. else we're forming the top and the low of the range for next few days before the real swing low to 1.02xx occur . hoom.
well its has gone through straight away , H4 closing above 1.122x was enough [edit: including FA impact which valid the leg up] for a rally , fading my longs @1.136x.

hoom.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #134,693
  • May 6, 2015 9:56am May 6, 2015 9:56am
Quoting sisse
{quote} As expected for NY, test on highs after running 1.126x. Tracking NY cut in for options expiring at the 1.13xx handle and to set the High of the day and probably week on the run of stops. Tracking very closely a rejection of highs for a play 1.098x with NFP... GL all the rest of the week... sisse
Hey, sisse!

1.13xx still valid or it went to high and this level is broken?
Do you think 1.136x is the high of the day?

Thank you!
  • #134,694
  • May 6, 2015 9:59am May 6, 2015 9:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} As expected for NY, test on highs after running 1.126x. Tracking NY cut in for options expiring at the 1.13xx handle and to set the High of the day and probably week on the run of stops. Tracking very closely a rejection of highs for a play 1.098x with NFP... GL all the rest of the week... sisse
...and that was pretty much it in the session. V. simple and direct intraday leg. Day is over in the euro after Europe goes home.

Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Added at 1.1340.This one is the last one. No more adding.
Whats the hurry mate? ...Its very thin at these levels (minion trading from now until the roll) , why bother with a blind entry against the current flow and trying to outsmart NFP?... What I meant just playing with the roll alonel or with the rejection before NFP and you will still get the same but massively reducing risk and potential drawdown .... in any case GL and for what is worth is the same play i got for a mini swing ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,695
  • May 6, 2015 10:00am May 6, 2015 10:00am
1014 still valid until a close of 1547....
  • #134,696
  • May 6, 2015 10:05am May 6, 2015 10:05am
Quoting Pharm0r
1014 still valid until a close of 1547....
Personally though, I doubt it for this market session. 1.13670/1.13650 is the 161.80 extension from the initial FOMC spike, and is a fib. point in other movements as well.

London's going to close up shop, and I'm leaning towards a couple dozen pip retracement down. I expect 1.1320/00 to be retested. We might scrape 1.1280 followed by 1.1220, which is still in expectations of bullish leg up in the next few sessions.

But if we get decisive break below 1.1280 and seem hesitant on 1.1220, I don't think I'll long readily. I'll probably need to watch and see.

Oh yeah...tomorrow is U.K. general elections. That might screw the movements of the cable for a bit, and the euro by association. Anyone trading the elections?
  • #134,697
  • May 6, 2015 10:20am May 6, 2015 10:20am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Personally though, I doubt it for this market session. 1.13670/1.13650 is the 161.80 extension from the initial FOMC spike, and is a fib. point in other movements as well. London's going to close up shop, and I'm leaning towards a couple dozen pip retracement down. I expect 1.1320/00 to be retested. We might scrape 1.1280 followed by 1.1220, which is still in expectations of bullish leg up in the next few sessions. But if we get decisive break below 1.1280 and seem hesitant on 1.1220, I don't think I'll long readily. I'll probably need to...
Probably Cloggie, whereever he is. I remember he loved trading them.
  • #134,698
  • May 6, 2015 10:25am May 6, 2015 10:25am
I didn't say anything regarding this session
  • #134,699
  • May 6, 2015 10:27am May 6, 2015 10:27am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and that was pretty much it in the session. V. simple and direct intraday leg. Day is over in the euro after Europe goes home. {quote} Whats the hurry mate? ...Its very thin at these levels (minion trading from now until the roll) , why bother with a blind entry against the current flow and trying to outsmart NFP?... What I meant just playing with the roll alonel or with the rejection before NFP and you will still get the same but massively reducing risk and potential drawdown .... in any case GL and for what is worth is the same play...
As EU is just quieting rallying with no real fundamental reasons, commodity markets have been rallying as well. Oil just got another higher high, half due to the weaker dollar, half due to the declining of inventory. In the meanwhile, cost of labor has beaten the expectations twice in the past 5 working days.
Higher commodity prices indicate inflation. Higher costs of labor indicate higher wages.
What is the FED watching? Inflation & wage increase. Unemployment? Already at 5.5% for a while. It will decline as time goes on. Which means FED tightening is coming, even June is a very possible choice.
So my question is how important really is Friday's NFP for the EU anyway? FED earlier already publicly dismissed the super super importance of NFP in the consideration of hike.

Thank you!
  • #134,700
  • May 6, 2015 10:30am May 6, 2015 10:30am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Whats the hurry mate? ...Its very thin at these levels (minion trading from now until the roll) , why bother with a blind entry against the current flow and trying to outsmart NFP?... What I meant just playing with the roll alonel or with the rejection before NFP and you will still get the same but massively reducing risk and potential drawdown .... in any case GL and for what is worth is the same play i got for a mini swing .... sisse
It is according to my monthly level which is 25% UP. 1.1286 was last month 125% UP. 1.1237 was according to quarterly 50% UP and switched with todays 50% at 1.1262(this one is little bit unnecessary I admit). I still think it will go down around 1.1223-1.1250 before NFP and if it comes back up than those trades will have SL at BE each. After that I will look shorts around 1.1460 with target 1.0979..Thanks for the advice I will keep in mind.
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