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  • #987,181
  • May 6, 2015 5:52am May 6, 2015 5:52am
1) ADP is does not reflect NFP figures
2) Wage cost going up is a sign of inflation (what yellen wants to see)
3) Productivity figures is for Q1 still badly affected by weather.

so no i wouldnt say a dollar sell off because Q1 productivity is something we already knew was gona be bad.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #987,182
  • May 6, 2015 5:53am May 6, 2015 5:53am
Quoting rattyo
{quote}
Understanding the short term PA isn't easy for some people
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #987,183
  • May 6, 2015 5:54am May 6, 2015 5:54am
Quoting dami32
Eur/usd is easily going to 1.15 by next week before any falls. Sellers beware! You've been warned!!!
  • #987,184
  • May 6, 2015 5:54am May 6, 2015 5:54am
Quoting fxtyrant
1) ADP is does not reflect NFP figures 2) Wage cost going up is a sign of inflation (what yellen wants to see) 3) Productivity figures is for Q1 still badly affected by weather. so no i wouldnt say a dollar sell off because Q1 productivity is something we already knew was gona be bad.....
Wait until Pay Rolls for direction this month, anything else is just noise and short term scalping pips.
  • #987,185
  • May 6, 2015 5:56am May 6, 2015 5:56am
Probably gonna hit 1.13 on this move.
  • #987,186
  • May 6, 2015 5:57am May 6, 2015 5:57am
Quoting fxtyrant
1) ADP is does not reflect NFP figures 2) Wage cost going up is a sign of inflation (what yellen wants to see) 3) Productivity figures is for Q1 still badly affected by weather. so no i wouldnt say a dollar sell off because Q1 productivity is something we already knew was gona be bad.....
Thanks for putting that into perspective.
  • #987,187
  • May 6, 2015 5:59am May 6, 2015 5:59am
Citi: Spot EUR: NY Open
EUR continued to trade rather well overnight, continuing its bid tone from NY on the back of better PMI’s. Bunds continue to sell-off (yields above pre-QE announcement), and US/German spreads continue to tighten. EUR has failed once again in the 1.1260-90 zone, which won’t last with a poor ADP number (1.1380 a possibility). A strong ADP number looks to take EUR back down to 1.1115, with 1.1065-70 looking like a stretch. Greece rhetoric continues, but is largely ignored at this point. We get NFPs on Friday and I think any move today (more so on a strong number) will see quick profit-taking. I am going to try and buy EUR on a poor number targeting a move through 1.1300. I am less likely to sell on a strong number.

Topside: 1.1260-90 (zone of resistance last week), 1.1300 (option barrier), 1.1380 (26 Feb High), 1.1535 (Post ECB high).
Downside: 1.1175 (o/n low), 1.1115 (intra-day level), 1.1065 (Mon-Tue low), 1.0880 (pivot), 1.0660 (last fail to the downside).

Citi: Have seen light USD selling on this weaker US nr, mainly versus EUR, but overall somewhat of a muted reaction. Very little directional interest at the moment it seems.

Fresh notes from Citi spot traders
  • #987,188
  • May 6, 2015 6:00am May 6, 2015 6:00am
Quoting forexings
{quote} Understanding the short term PA isn't easy for some people

Its much easier to play for 2 pips with a 10 pips SL

Problem is most people play for 10 pips with 2 pips SL..........
  • #987,189
  • May 6, 2015 6:01am May 6, 2015 6:01am
Quoting fxtyrant
1) ADP is does not reflect NFP figures 2) Wage cost going up is a sign of inflation (what yellen wants to see) 3) Productivity figures is for Q1 still badly affected by weather. so no i wouldnt say a dollar sell off because Q1 productivity is something we already knew was gona be bad.....
Been on the fence lately with this FX. We''ll see what NY has to say about this. But ever since last months near shrinking GDP, this week's import numbers (which caused downward revisions to 2nd QTR GDP), and a series of sub 200k added jobs number releases, either the USD is due for some further relief from this parabolic bull rally or everything is going to be rosy in the U.S and so we should continue to climb higher. Especially against the backdrop of EU proving to get some further confidence in the market.

We should have seen a continuation of a break to the upside on the UJ. But with yesterday's release it didn't. And if it continues further, there will be a break in the opposite direction.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #987,190
  • May 6, 2015 6:01am May 6, 2015 6:01am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} Its much easier to play for 2 pips with a 10 pips SL Problem is most people play for 10 pips with 2 pips SL..........
You need a good strategy to prevent one bad trade from blowing up 5 good ones
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #987,191
  • May 6, 2015 6:06am May 6, 2015 6:06am
Wow, it seems to me that there is a big player absorbing all of this buying
  • #987,192
  • May 6, 2015 6:08am May 6, 2015 6:08am
Quoting fxtyrant
1) ADP is does not reflect NFP figures 2) Wage cost going up is a sign of inflation (what yellen wants to see) 3) Productivity figures is for Q1 still badly affected by weather. so no i wouldnt say a dollar sell off because Q1 productivity is something we already knew was gona be bad.....
Thank God, you are here

Anyway, reload EU short under the belief of UJ did not breach 119.50.
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  • #987,193
  • May 6, 2015 6:08am May 6, 2015 6:08am
Quoting ChanhXanh
Wow, it seems to me that there is a big player absorbing all of this buying
Does that mean big player countering with selling?
  • #987,194
  • May 6, 2015 6:10am May 6, 2015 6:10am
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} Thank God, you are here Anyway, reload EU short under the belief of UJ did not breach 119.50. {image}
I would wait for confirmation of a 119.50 support on UJ if I were you. NY just opened. And there is very little confirmation that 119.50 is a significant support level. You are in the middle of the intersecting market hours of London and NY right now.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #987,195
  • May 6, 2015 6:10am May 6, 2015 6:10am
Anyone have any insight to what Yellen will say? Every time there is a speech EURUSD climbs.
  • #987,196
  • May 6, 2015 6:10am May 6, 2015 6:10am
No short? Amazing ...........
  • #987,197
  • May 6, 2015 6:11am May 6, 2015 6:11am
Quoting Ken A
No short? Amazing ...........
waiting for your signal
  • #987,198
  • May 6, 2015 6:11am May 6, 2015 6:11am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} I would wait for confirmation of a 119.50 support on UJ if I were you. NY just opened. You are in the middle of the intersecting market hours of London and NY right now.

Maybe NY taking profit on their buys keeping it tame for now/
  • #987,199
  • May 6, 2015 6:12am May 6, 2015 6:12am
hey all,

i've successfully been trading for over a month now, only trading the EUR USD pair.

I'd like to start trading a pair after the European and US market slows down.
I had a look at the AUD NZD but doesnt move much.

Can anyone recommend a volatile pair that's tradeable after the EUR USD closes - slows down.
  • #987,200
  • May 6, 2015 6:13am May 6, 2015 6:13am
Nice day today :o) I am out.
Never trade Yellen...
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