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Sonic R. System

  • #81,061
  • May 5, 2015 12:29pm May 5, 2015 12:29pm
Thank you TAH and qFish for your thorough responses. I see I have so much digest than anticipated...
Here is a question: if we see a retracement from an existing trend, then that retracement has to have falling volume compared to the existing trend in order to actually be a retracement, right? If that retracement is followed by rising volume, then is not a retracement at all, but an end of the existing trend and possibly a start of a new one?

Marijan
  • #81,062
  • May 5, 2015 12:30pm May 5, 2015 12:30pm
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} This is my next scenario plan. If that previous consolidation area is the accumulation phase to make mark up so MMs run their long, maybe the price would bounce pullback to the previous resisten (now become support) on that ranging area to add more long then go up again to the higher evel. The price now going stop in the whole number level, Big Boys make such transaction there - they make a deal on that place. We dont know how the result of that deal. But we know that they have some trick to fool us, to fool the retailer, cz they are Robber,...
GBPUSD Long trade closed.
Based on M15 TF, Price stop moving on whole number area after some times whip n whack on that level. MMs try to reach the higher level above the whole number, it seems to be absorbing liquidities for their shorts. it become clear on lower TF, come see on M5 TF; see that very top level?? n see that activity by notable volume? MMs active above the whole number. exhaustion power to support the price to the higher level - STOP HUNT clear.
This is why i closed my long order.
Stay Blue...
__MJ
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #81,063
  • May 5, 2015 12:48pm May 5, 2015 12:48pm
Quoting traderathome
EURUSD So, I had a PM from one of the team here saying he felt the MMs have been driving the price up all day to close their longs and open shorts before the FOMC release. With price having risen over 500 pips since a quasi double bottom, and with about 200 of those pips being just today,......gee, whatever gave him THAT idea? {image}
..just a reminder..
PVSRA
  • #81,064
  • May 5, 2015 1:11pm May 5, 2015 1:11pm
GBPUSD Short trade opened..
Execution on M5 TF
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #81,065
  • May 5, 2015 2:09pm May 5, 2015 2:09pm
Quoting Mauro-J
GBPUSD Short trade opened.. Execution on M5 TF {image}
GU Short trade closed
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #81,066
  • May 5, 2015 2:49pm May 5, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting traderathome
EURUSD H&S: Are EU and GU Bullish or Bearish? This H&S is not in play, and won't be unless the price drops back to the neckline. We have conflicting outlooks. We are seeing the possible break high of trend lines on EU and GU, and which might go bearish only temporarily to suck in DM shorts. Here, with this H&S creating a bias in us, we are thinking maybe the big move is to be a bear swing down. So, maybe the trend line break highs today by EU and GU are actually head fakes? It could be. Time will tell. Meanwhile, maybe some of you would like to...
To follow teachers request here is my outlook and why:
On H1 I see a long period where Volume has been rising as PA has risen, further more the tallest Volume candles being above either 1/2# or whole#.
Zooming in M15 I again see volume rise along with PA and weakness. Last reason I see this as Bearish is CNBC is telling me the dollar bear run is over??
I would also like to PAGE Gupito because he is sorely missed from these discussions.

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  • #81,067
  • May 5, 2015 3:05pm May 5, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting Mauro-J
GBPUSD Short trade opened.. Execution on M5 TF {image}
I really love your trading style! thank you very much for sharing.

Meanwhile i builded a short position on USD/JPY, the run for profits started? maybe.. there is still high impact news tommorow.

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  • #81,068
  • May 5, 2015 3:55pm May 5, 2015 3:55pm
Quoting leentjai
Opened shprt Scout GBP/USD {image}
Closed +268 p total
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  • #81,069
  • May 5, 2015 6:08pm May 5, 2015 6:08pm
AUDUSD short trade opened
Just try to dance with MMs
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #81,070
  • May 5, 2015 6:55pm May 5, 2015 6:55pm
Quoting Mauro-J
AUDUSD short trade opened Just try to dance with MMs {image} {image}
AU Short trade closed ;
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #81,071
  • May 5, 2015 7:50pm May 5, 2015 7:50pm
Quoting traderathome
EURUSD Short Trade Open: This is PVSRA based, a Scout short. Like leentjai, I feel EU and GU might undergo a bit of bearish activity, if only to entice shorts into the market for the bulls to have liquidity. No TP, SL at this time. {image}
EURUSD Short Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 28.2 pips average, 112.6 pips total gain.
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  • #81,072
  • May 5, 2015 8:17pm May 5, 2015 8:17pm
NU: Another stop loss hunt, or breaking trendline?
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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #81,073
  • May 5, 2015 8:21pm May 5, 2015 8:21pm
UJ: H4 bear strength today. It's time to go down baby! Go go go!
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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #81,074
  • Edited 9:48pm May 5, 2015 9:37pm | Edited 9:48pm
Quoting qFish
UJ: H4 bear strength today. It's time to go down baby! Go go go! {image}
USDJPY: USD High Impact Releases Coming.....

I agree, qFish. Looks to me like the MMs are clawing their way back up the price queue. Sort of resembles a Bear flag/channel. Probably supporting the price periodically at higher and higher levels to be sure of the bullish appearance in hopes of suckering in DM longs to provide shorting liquidity. They might or might not get price back up into the consolidation area above the whole number again. Being the thieves that they are, it is hard to believe they won't. If they have not done it by the time the USD high impact releases come it is entirely likely they will at some point in conjunction with those releases execute a liquidity creating spike back up there. That would be my guess because surely most see this as bearish and are taking positions accordingly. That adds up to a lot of short positions and the more there are then the greater the odds for good stop hunting.
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  • #81,075
  • May 5, 2015 9:47pm May 5, 2015 9:47pm
Quoting qFish
NU: Another stop loss hunt, or breaking trendline? {image}
NZDUSD: USD High Impact Releases Coming....

When all is said and done, my bet is that we will see this a move to create liquidity to fill SM and MM long orders below the whole Level. That second of the two tallest volume bars was for activity completely below the whole Level. We can see the activity dropped when price inched back above that Level and then increased again as the MMs worked the price lower again to the low mark. After that, as price started up from the low mark, volume has been declining. It all looks like the area below the whole Level was targeted in order to fill SM long orders, and then the MMs took it lower and are milking this for liquidity to execute long orders for their own accounts. This is the way it seems to me.
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  • #81,076
  • May 5, 2015 10:08pm May 5, 2015 10:08pm
EURUSD Short Trade Open:

PVSRA based short entry. MMs have price back above the whole Level. And the AS range currently is 41, which is high for the AS and could mean that price is maybe not going so much higher, at least in the AS. Of course there are USD high impact releases coming today. This could end up as a double top, or even higher. We just cannot know how the MMs will move price. So, I have taken entry here and will see what the day brings. No TP, SL at this time. But based on the potential H&S previously discussed, RWL is a viable bear swing target.
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  • #81,077
  • May 5, 2015 10:27pm May 5, 2015 10:27pm
Quoting traderathome
EURUSD Short Trade Open: PVSRA based short entry. MMs have price back above the whole Level. And the AS range currently is 41, which is high for the AS and could mean that price is maybe not going so much higher, at least in the AS. Of course there are USD high impact releases coming today. This could end up as a double top, or even higher. We just cannot know how the MMs will move price. So, I have taken entry here and will see what the day brings. No TP, SL at this time. But based on the potential H&S previously discussed, RWL is a viable bear...
EURUSD- It looks like MMs opening longs.
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But the question is, for how long. They can switch in NY session. I will still keep small shorts for longer.
PVSRA
  • #81,078
  • Edited 10:52pm May 5, 2015 10:32pm | Edited 10:52pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} EURUSD- It looks like MMs opening longs. {image}
EURUSD

MMs opening longs? Could be, but the way I see it is the AS MMs have limited time now to get SM orders filled and their own account orders filled. If the action is to take place in the US session and they plan on whacking the price, then it makes sense the AS MMs would be pushing this up in the attempt to sucker in DM longs to give the AS MMs the liquidity to fill short orders, and the higher the better during what remaining time the AS MMs have. It is called "Front Running" the announcement, meaning before the announcement they run the price opposite how they plan to run the price after the announcement, in order to load up for that future move.

Without getting too complicated, the AS MMs have pushed this above a whole Level, and that is where they seem intent on doing their trading with their remaining time. This is a PVSRA indication of bears.

However, as stated in previous post, once the LS begins those MMs could do the same, push price up to sucker in DM longs to get liquidity to fill short orders, which means this could go higher today; maybe a double top, maybe more. We just cannot know.

Take a look at the M5 attached. Note at the culmination of the run up, the next candle is with tight spread, yet highest volume. Now, this is either buy high, or sell high. You decide......

tah
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  • #81,079
  • Edited 11:19pm May 5, 2015 10:38pm | Edited 11:19pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EURUSD MMs opening longs? Could be, but the way I see it is the AS MMs have limited time now to get their own account orders filled. If the action is to take place in the US session and they plan on whacking the price, then it makes sense the AS MMs would be pushing this up in the attempt to sucker in DM longs to give the AS MMs the liquidity to fill their own short orders, and the higher the better during what remaining time the AS MMs have. Without getting too complicated, the AS MMs have pushed this above a whole Level, and that is where...
This would fit for me exactly for the Bigger Picture.
They could then short realy fast around ADP, with the traders cought in longs.

This is the right question: "Buy high or sell high?"

USDJPY: TP set acording to all mentioned in the last posts. After this TP, there will be only the highest short trade left, with SL around BE.
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PVSRA
  • #81,080
  • Edited 11:32pm May 5, 2015 11:18pm | Edited 11:32pm
EURUSD: In a Historic Consolidation Price Range

Also note that the AS MMs have the price in a historic consolidation price range. The last time price was in this consolidation range, it was for the purpose of loading up with shorts, meaning the MMs were busy moving price up and down to sucker in DM longs to create the liquidity to fill SM shorts, and their own shorts! I think this is happening again.

tah
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