Attachments: News trading discussion - continuation

News trading discussion - continuation

#481
May 1, 2015 10:27pm May 1, 2015 10:27pm

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to different degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
AU Interest
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date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast
Reaction trading pairs in points
Comments
03/03/2015 0.25 19-40 19 body 40 with a shadow, an increase of 40 points before the publication of (suspected isayd from the authorities)
03/02/2015 -0.25 70 Fall couple
01.07.2014 0 24 Height couple
06/03/2014 0 10 No reaction
05/06/2014 0 13 No reaction
04/01/2014 15 0 Small increase
03/04/2014 0 10 No reaction
02/04/2014 0 15-50 gradual increase in trade sedate couples.

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#482
May 3, 2015 8:05pm May 3, 2015 8:05pm

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

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#483
May 3, 2015 8:34pm May 3, 2015 8:34pm

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

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#484
May 4, 2015 8:42am May 4, 2015 8:42am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Home Trends April 2015

As expected, the spring continues to bubble: QE works European central banks are forced to respond, the Fed stumbles over the first quarter, and the United Kingdom on the verge of elections. Overview of the main events in May.

The ECB lowered the dogs

After the launch of the "European leniency program", the tone of the ECB gets more optimistic notes, but you must be careful: whether Mario Draghi praises their offspring, whether in truth the printing press would be the Messiah.
In any case: effect of QE requires more time.
Nevertheless, some of the program you might feel the - is rampant reaction of central banks in the form of lower interest rates. Such deysvtiya allow them to "stand up" in currency tyagomotina against the backdrop of a soft monetary policy of the ECB: Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, to give you an example.
April 15 the ECB left the interest rate unchanged at 0.05%.
During a press conference on the table to the ECB Draghi jumped protest.
The Fed was supposed to be a superhero
Fedrez was supposed to be (and perhaps even become) a kind of superhero economic field: FOMC first ready to tighten monetary policy (in the form of higher interest rates). But the global trends constrain it.
Global inflation, oppression oil prices fell "through the floor." The first quarter was not pleased by weather conditions, the US economy is for this reason has not been able to breathe a full breast with the beginning of 2015.
Over the past month the markets have settled permanently in the opinion that it is important for the Fed to contemplate an acceptable level of inflation in the country, before moving to raise interest rates.
The future rate hike will not be "automatic" / discussed earlier period of 6 months after the end of QE3 /.
Future rate increases should be suspended all economic aspects, but the main ones are: the labor market and inflation.
But in order to take off "frsmenu" before it is necessary to break through the veil of the global challenges that surround it. Markets now have less than speculate on the June rate hike (the less probable), probably the end of spring, we need to see more clearly the anticipated date of the monetary policy tightening.
3 April published an extremely weak Non-Farm
April 14 - The weak retail sales data
April 29 - weak preliminary data GDP growth I quarter.
The pound could be knocked off balance the upcoming elections
Sterling remained fairly predictable in the past month, and the main walk for him became a blade "inflation-deflation", as the British economy remained at 0% annual CPI twice (released monthly). The Bank of England tried to persuade the markets required indifferent to this figure, but it did not manage to: markets remained svoem- asthma will need to lower the rate if the consumer price index had dropped below "0". In turn, the central bank said that the likelihood of rate increases higher than the probability of its reduction.
In early May, the pound to go through the parliamentary elections. Perhaps the most vivid memory in mind, in case of victory, David Cameron would be his desire to hold a referendum on leaving the UK from the EU in 2017. There may be hard times, not only the pound, but also the euro.
Parliamentary elections in the UK in 2015 to be held May 7th.
April 14 the British CPI is fixed at 0%
April 22 The Bank of England publishes the minutes, while maintaining the focus optimist
April 23 - the negative retail sales
April 28 - rather weak GDP growth data of the first quarter
May continue cannonade foundation
A spring as a whole, must align all market expectations.
Already on Tuesday, is expected to reduce the interest rate of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
On Wednesday, New Zealand will present quarterly labor market, and Australia, followed on Thursday.
May 7 parliamentary elections will be held the UK, and the results will be announced on the 8th.
May 8 will publish the American and Canadian Non-Farm, a special influence will be American.
May 11 will be a meeting of the Bank of England MPC.
May 13 - the UK labor market, an hour later, Mark Carney will present its quarterly inflation report.
May 14 - quarterly retail sales in New Zealand
May 19 - UK CPI back to the turn of the 0%
May 21 - British retail
May 22 - Canadian retail + US inflation
May 27 - a decision on interest rates Bank of Canada

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#485
May 4, 2015 8:45am May 4, 2015 8:45am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Will the RBA to lower interest rates? On Friday the forecast was 2.25% (interest rate remains the same), and over the weekend, analysts already exceeded its majority to the forecast of 2.0% (the rate decreased by 0.25%).
Economists suggest that the weak condition of the Australian economy will force the regulator to an unprecedented step, and set interest rates at historic lows.
The situation is quite interesting, since after the February decline was not averse to the RBA cut interest rates again, either in March, but most likely in April, it did not happen. This May, largely selected by analysts because the RBA was to receive a quarterly report that will be used to decide the regulator (there is about investments, price of iron ore, etc.).
The unemployment rate went down to 6%, while, the last edition of Employment Change was quite optimistic, everything is open.
Always has its "pros" and "cons", and only "tomorrow" will put its own priorities. Will it be on Tuesday, or not, the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier pointed to "double" rate cut in 2015.

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#486
May 4, 2015 9:05am May 4, 2015 9:05am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#487
May 4, 2015 9:58am May 4, 2015 9:58am

good_artur
| Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Trader | 5 Posts

This is a Demo - trading 101% )))

#488
May 4, 2015 11:35pm May 4, 2015 11:35pm

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#489
May 4, 2015 11:50pm May 4, 2015 11:50pm

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

At 10:00 am EST the US will release ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Expected at 56.2 after a prior of 56.5.

Good luck everybody!

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#490
May 5, 2015 12:09am May 5, 2015 12:09am

ginger
| Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Trader | 169 Posts

Quoting good_artur

Disliked

This is a Demo - trading 101% )))

Ignored

Yep 200%

#491
May 5, 2015 12:42am May 5, 2015 12:42am

sEit89
| Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Trader | 325 Posts

Quoting vvFish

Disliked

{image}{image}

Ignored

OMG!! Gratz vvFish, killer trader!

#492
May 5, 2015 12:43am May 5, 2015 12:43am

sEit89
| Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Trader | 325 Posts

My week start.

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#493
May 5, 2015 12:50am May 5, 2015 12:50am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

Quoting sEit89

Disliked

My week start. {image}

Ignored

Well, my friend

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#494
May 5, 2015 12:52am May 5, 2015 12:52am

sEit89
| Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Trader | 325 Posts

Quoting vvFish

Disliked

{quote} Well, my friend

Ignored

Not so nice as you but it's fine for me!

Thank you my friend

#495
May 5, 2015 7:35am May 5, 2015 7:35am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#496
May 5, 2015 9:48am May 5, 2015 9:48am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#497
May 5, 2015 9:50am May 5, 2015 9:50am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

Wednesday
1:45
06/05/15
NZ number of employed DANGER
(NZ Employment Change), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
40% probability trades.

Wednesday
11:30
06/05/15
GB The index of activity in the services sector
(GB Services PMI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Wednesday
15:15
06/05/15
US ADP number of employed
(US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#498
May 5, 2015 5:31pm May 5, 2015 5:31pm

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,161 Posts

At 9:30 pm EDT Australia will release Retail Sales. Expected at 0.4 after a prior of 0.7. This will be subject to the Australian delay.

Good luck everybody!

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...