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  • #986,581
  • May 3, 2015 5:11pm May 3, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting Patient1
aud/nzd could also be a nice pair to watch after the RBA decison. With NZD expected to start easing rates and aud maybe at bottom or close too for easing this might have some upside after a nice pullback early week.
that pull back is being tested right now pop or plop?
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  • #986,582
  • May 3, 2015 5:29pm May 3, 2015 5:29pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} that pull back is being tested right now pop or plop?
hopefully plop by tomorrow night....or I'll just have to watch. It might be an ok buy here... but a nice sized stop would be needed. way better r/r if it comes down. Personally, I won't touch it if it doesn't come down from here. I'll wait for another opportunity.
  • #986,583
  • May 3, 2015 5:29pm May 3, 2015 5:29pm
EURUSD
Fundamental:
Last week's U.S data confirmed our views and as result all targets for this pair were met and exceeded for the anticipated correction, the big question now is whether it's over or not.
It seems that now we are completely U.S data dependent as this will indicate possibility that we could still see rate hike in June, Friday's data was mixed meaning that investors will still be looking for signs that US economy is stable and that last few weeks bad data were mainly due to other factors and don't reflect entirely the bigger picture signalling that the worst is over and US Dollar strength will be back soon.
On the other hand we saw good reaction to talks on Greek deal and also the overall market positioning ratio still favors more upside.
Technical:
Monthly Chart: This week I have looked at this timeframe as there is a pattern right after completion of 1.27 Extension at 1.0461 (check previous posts), we have Bullish engulfing pattern pointing to 1.1816 and depending how we get there even 1.2200 is not far fetched but for this to become more likely I would like to see break of 1.1350 and will explain why below.

Weekly/Daily: Price struck against Fib .236 resistance whole swing from 1.4000 to 1.0461 at 1.1290 that is .786 Fib retracement on Daily chart, my main doubt is whether price will complete extension 1.618 of Gartley Sell D1 and stop at 1.1350, on weekly price is forming negative MACD divergence, but without a top on daily this gives little assistance.
Breaking above the 1.618 Extension would be a clear signal for 1.1500 WR1.

Atm I don't see any meaningful patterns on smaller Tf's but surely some will appear soon that will allow to narrow down targets for retracement and extensions after.

My plan is to wait for retracement (might take small scalp short) to 1.1000, .382 Ret+ MPP to take long position, the other levels I want to look at are 1.1100 and 1.0900 retest of new WPP and WPS1 and then see what follows, . PA around these levels is always the most important to determine taking positions. Will update as new patterns emerge.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD D1 Gartley.png Size: 39 KB
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  • #986,584
  • May 3, 2015 5:30pm May 3, 2015 5:30pm
Or... could go 1/4 position here and buy lower if it comes down
  • #986,585
  • May 3, 2015 5:38pm May 3, 2015 5:38pm
Quoting Patient1
{quote} hopefully plop by tomorrow night....or I'll just have to watch. It might be an ok buy here... but a nice sized stop would be needed. way better r/r if it comes down. Personally, I won't touch it if it doesn't come down from here. I'll wait for another opportunity.
yep agreed, will see from 1-2pm today then again tomorrow same time, do like that yuan is straight after today, especially with yen sleeping
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  • #986,586
  • May 3, 2015 5:42pm May 3, 2015 5:42pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} that pull back is being tested right now pop or plop?
One other thing to consider......jpy session will see this again pre decision. london and us will have to position ahead of time. Personally, I will wait as I think likely RBA cuts
  • #986,587
  • May 3, 2015 5:55pm May 3, 2015 5:55pm
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  • #986,588
  • May 3, 2015 6:13pm May 3, 2015 6:13pm
Quoting plotinus82
{quote} You really need to understand how a prime broker nets a brokers account then how they net yours then... you're exposed to exactly the same pair if u do that.. ok though good luck for the week
Thanks for the advice.
you to have a good luck for this week
  • #986,589
  • May 3, 2015 6:43pm May 3, 2015 6:43pm
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  • #986,590
  • May 3, 2015 7:14pm May 3, 2015 7:14pm
LONG AU at .78188
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #986,591
  • May 3, 2015 7:37pm May 3, 2015 7:37pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Hi sir , in how much time this was happened ? What was your strategy ? Thanks
1 month strategy do or die. it was demo for testing some ideas
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #986,592
  • May 3, 2015 8:11pm May 3, 2015 8:11pm
Quoting ill_be_back
LONG AU at .78188
Sneaky too early ...

EU bounce from Fridays
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  • #986,593
  • May 3, 2015 8:12pm May 3, 2015 8:12pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Sneaky too early ...
gu looking flaggy on the hourly.
  • #986,594
  • May 3, 2015 8:19pm May 3, 2015 8:19pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} gu looking flaggy on the hourly.
May bounce

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  • #986,595
  • May 3, 2015 8:24pm May 3, 2015 8:24pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} May bounce {image}
Im busy with AU anyway, may drag it up
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  • #986,596
  • May 3, 2015 8:31pm May 3, 2015 8:31pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Im busy with AU anyway, may drag it up {image}
Make/ break .7850
  • #986,597
  • May 3, 2015 8:46pm May 3, 2015 8:46pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Make/ break .7850
I ejected. WTF china?
  • #986,598
  • May 3, 2015 8:57pm May 3, 2015 8:57pm
Quoting ill_be_back
LONG AU at .78188
OUT at .78302
Now back IN LONG AU at .78065
AU M5
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #986,599
  • May 3, 2015 9:00pm May 3, 2015 9:00pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I ejected. WTF china?
In again risk few pips then zzzzzz ....... wasting time .......... no pips .......

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  • #986,600
  • May 3, 2015 9:07pm May 3, 2015 9:07pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} In again risk few pips then zzzzzz ....... wasting time .......... no pips ....... {image}
hahahaha me too.

not as good a price as you though, about 7 pips higher
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