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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,501
  • Apr 30, 2015 3:08pm Apr 30, 2015 3:08pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} I have EU going for 1.2, UJ 103, gold 15xx... What fundamental reasoning could lie behind such movements?
Interesting exercise. I do see those levels in charts you are talking about so lets play the case scenario while we wait for the rolls:

On the fundamental side: It looks very hard in the next few weeks to unlock those levels.

  1. We will need FED "confirming" hikes next year (v. hard)
  2. We need Greece clearing the field with high notes and clearing any extra problems for the rest of the year (v. hard)
  3. We need a complete collapse of the US macro numbers (hard)
  4. A huge boost and clear recovery in Europe including strong numbers in the periphery (medium chance)
  5. A massive turn around in the next couple of months in China (medium hard)
  6. Japan stop easing and start picking up for real. (hard)
  7. ECB delimiting and marking a clear map for the end of QE (very hard)

​On the technical side: Difficult. ITs still lock but we are in top/bottom area of the locks

  1. Monthly charts are in strong trends and in trendy mode (strong to deny your levels)
  2. Weekly charts didn't made reversals (only pullbacks) in the last swings in March (very strong to deny your levels)
  3. Daily charts/Intraday are aligned and trending to those levels but they need the key break to unlock the map you are mentioning (if we isolate these charts from the major swings charts there is a positive medium to high chance to break to the levels you mentioned).
  4. Too many macro players and portfolios are still heavily positioned to the opposite side (hard as steal to deny your levels ... if market catch them with their pants down, the spike will be fast and furious and will open your levels in a blink)

In conclusion, hard both fundamentally and technically...for starters we will need the proper M/W rolls this week to give a hand to that scenario ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,502
  • Apr 30, 2015 3:27pm Apr 30, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Interesting exercise. I do see those levels in charts you are talking about so lets play the case scenario while we wait for the rolls: On the fundamental side: It looks very hard in the next few weeks to unlock those levels. We will need FED "confirming" hikes next year (v. hard) We need Greece clearing the field with high notes and clearing any extra problems for the rest of the year (v. hard) We need a complete collapse of the US macro numbers (hard) A huge boost and clear recovery in Europe including strong numbers in the periphery (medium...
How about Europe getting slightly better numbers cosntantly and US numbers gets slightly undershooting, Greece sits where it is with some half baked cut/reduce/extension for other years to come and FED insiders knows that rate hike will be marginal/formal at the very boundaries of timing expectations with a long period of nothingness afterwards..? Could be a sufficient reason to have next 2-5 months of a runaway PA..?
69
  • #134,503
  • Apr 30, 2015 3:33pm Apr 30, 2015 3:33pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} How about Europe getting slightly better numbers cosntantly and US numbers gets slightly undershooting, Greece sits where it is with some half baked cut/reduce/extension for other years to come and FED insiders knows that rate hike will be marginal/formal at the very boundaries of timing expectations with a long period of nothingness afterwards..?
Yes, but you have to ask yourself if that is enough to trigger a small uptrend or just simple let us in wide chop zone of nothingness until the real hikes ...

I don't see any reason why the US economy will slow down. I do agree Greece in half baked solution as the most probable option till the summer. I also agree that ECB QE will start trickling down in Europe and it will impact positively in major numbers in the next few months.

On the FED i think you shouldn't dismiss the power of CB and hikes. The actual environment with nearly 0 rates is unsustainable for much longer from a macroeconomic perspective and I don't think any sane investor will just get over hikes lightly until the FED is really clear ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,504
  • Apr 30, 2015 3:37pm Apr 30, 2015 3:37pm
Or EURUSD just plays it's weak assed attempts at a Crazy Ivan, and stops hard at the YO, for a rejection at the end of summer session and an exodus to parity.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,505
  • Apr 30, 2015 4:03pm Apr 30, 2015 4:03pm
Quoting sisse
On the technical side

  1. Key levels in play with a play that extends to the W/M roll combo.
  2. For the second time this year we have MID TERM macro swing levels in play. 1.122x [in play]is KEY and only macro level in play until the M/W roll for the leg to PARITY.
  3. We also have MAIN SWING levels in play until the W roll and next Tuesday that Europe comes back from Holidays. 1.126x [in

[/highlight]...

....and surprise surprise ...bastards rolled sitting on top of 1.122x as expected.

A NEUTRAL monthly close this month for the mid term. 1.100x naked for an early test in the next few days and mark as a hard floor for now.

Weekly roll will settle the final map so all eyes on 1.126x for tomorrow.

With Europe on long weekend, nothing to see until NY settles the deal and we can start the next month next Tuesday with everybody on board...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,506
  • Apr 30, 2015 4:08pm Apr 30, 2015 4:08pm
Quoting sisse
The actual environment with nearly 0 rates is unsustainable for much longer from a macroeconomic perspective
divergence, convergence....submergence. How long til the Draghi taper tantrum?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #134,507
  • Apr 30, 2015 4:20pm Apr 30, 2015 4:20pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ....and surprise surprise ...bastards rolled sitting on top of 1.122x as expected. A NEUTRAL monthly close this month for the mid term. 1.100x naked for an early test in the next few days and mark as a hard floor for now. Weekly roll will settle the final map so all eyes on 1.126x for tomorrow. With Europe on long weekend, nothing to see until NY settles the deal and we can start the next month next Tuesday with everybody on board... sisse
I am truely amazed by the high accuracy of the levels in your book. Right now I am only able to have a clearer view on the main swings and major areas, but do not dare to call specific levels. Really impressed by you, even a bit "jealous", hehe...

Like always, thank you for sharing!!

Good luck to you and everyone else!
  • #134,508
  • Apr 30, 2015 4:46pm Apr 30, 2015 4:46pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} divergence, convergence....submergence. How long til the Draghi taper tantrum?
je je je...well the US is already 6 years with nearly 0 interest rates ...its not rocket science that this is a recipe for disaster if the FED overstay as the economy can quickly not only erase all the improvements but trigger a long lasting recession ..Japanese style ...no no we don't want to see that, not because trading but for the sake of the world economy ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,509
  • Apr 30, 2015 8:42pm Apr 30, 2015 8:42pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Agree levels, one relevant chart(same chart from yesterday, updated.) {image}
Sometimes ff is a strange place....
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #134,510
  • Apr 30, 2015 9:35pm Apr 30, 2015 9:35pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ....and surprise surprise ...bastards rolled sitting on top of 1.122x as expected. A NEUTRAL monthly close this month for the mid term. 1.100x naked for an early test in the next few days and mark as a hard floor for now. Weekly roll will settle the final map so all eyes on 1.126x for tomorrow. With Europe on long weekend, nothing to see until NY settles the deal and we can start the next month next Tuesday with everybody on board... sisse
Thank you for answering my previous couple of puzzle i lost yesterday. If today weekly close beyond the 1.126x, is it higher odds for EU to grow higher till 1.134x? or its because of low liquidity due to long holiday for europe and clearing the profit taking along with short trigger at 1.128x to starts the leg for testing 1.1000?

Quoting sisse
{quote} From May 2015 to January 2016 (+/- 8 months) THERE WILL BE HIKES. For the extreme dovish is nearly 8 months for the super hawkish 2 months. A rough average is 1 Quarter (3 months) before rates are actually hike for markets to position for the real hikes sisse
I have been thinking your words the whole day and due to english is my 2nd language, i cant figure out the exact point of these, shall you give me permission to speak my mind and correction...

1. "The extreme dovish for 8 months and super hawkish 2 months"
The extreme dovish is a couple of months after May till the hikes is really in front of the door (September) and super hawkish will be the announcement of hikes. isnt it?

2. "A rough average is 1 Quarter (3 months) before rates are actually hike for markets to position for the real hikes"

2A. So you mean, if the hikes really happened in by FOMC meeting September 2015 (let say rumor say so), then the last 3 months (june, july, and august) will be an extreme pricing in of rate hikes (EURUSD huge bearish and probably hitting the 1.06) and when the time came for hike (september), EU break parity?

OR

2B. The last 3 months (june, july, and august) before September 2015 (rumor for hike), there will be an extreme EURUSD BULL to hit the 1.16+ to avoid strength before hike and when the hike announced in September 2015, it takes 3 months from September to December 2015 for market to digest and start another huge leg downtrend from above (1.16+ to 1.06/1.000)

From your latest posts, i figure out the 2A option is the right one.....In case the 2A is correct, then its contradict to the statement 1. Or you got another perpective on figured "8 month extreme dovish and 2 months super hawkish"

Special thank ya
  • #134,511
  • May 1, 2015 3:28am May 1, 2015 3:28am
Quoting Sants
{quote} Thank you for answering my previous couple of puzzle i lost yesterday. If today weekly close beyond the 1.126x, is it higher odds for EU to grow higher till 1.134x? or its because of low liquidity due to long holiday for europe and clearing the profit taking along with short trigger at 1.128x to starts the leg for testing 1.1000? {quote} I have been thinking your words the whole day and due to english is my 2nd language, i cant figure out the exact point of these, shall you give me permission to speak my mind and correction... 1. "The extreme...
As far as I remember end of year rate estimate was around 0.625 in previous FOMC meeting by members.
So, till January 2016 rate hike is expected.
If you are super dovish you have 8 months for first hike before Jan 2016.
If you are super hawkish than you have 2 months for first hike in June 2015


FOMC meetings calender

June16-17
July28-29
September16-17
October27-28
December15-16
  • #134,512
  • May 1, 2015 4:04am May 1, 2015 4:04am
Quoting Sants
{quote} Thank you for answering my previous couple ... it takes 3 months from September to December 2015 for market to digest and start another huge leg downtrend from above (1.16+ to 1.06/1.000) From your latest posts, i figure out the 2A option is the right one.....In case the 2A is correct, then its contradict to the statement 1. Or you got another perpective on figured "8 month extreme dovish and 2 months super hawkish" Special thank ya
In general, for reference in any currency: hikes alone, you sell expectations and "buy the fact" [in equities] ... the opposite for the underlying currency [buy expectations, "sell the fact"]....

Most of Europe on holiday and London about to pack for a long weekend (Monday holiday) so nothing to see until NY. For the look of charts across the board, the main moves were already decided and digested in the last few days so expecting a very dull day until the close.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,513
  • May 1, 2015 4:11am May 1, 2015 4:11am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} gonna short 85-95 for a scalp if it gets there near the roll and looks weak though.) {image}
not shorting this if it gets there today. Sadly for me, my trading rules say no trading on EU, UK or US holidays.
  • #134,514
  • May 1, 2015 4:14am May 1, 2015 4:14am
Quoting sisse
{quote} In general, for reference in any currency: hikes alone, you sell expectations and "buy the fact" [in equities] ... the opposite for the underlying currency [buy expectations, "sell the fact"].... Most of Europe on holiday and London about to pack for a long weekend (Monday holiday) so nothing to see until NY. For the look of charts across the board, the main moves were already decided and digested in the last few days so expecting a very dull day until the close. sisse
yep. good day to read up on things
  • #134,515
  • May 1, 2015 4:53am May 1, 2015 4:53am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} This is what I have. There's a monthly mid at 1284 that ought to hold for a good scalp if it gets there. {image}
What this proves is that if the market can find a way to aggravate you it will - even when you are on vacation
  • #134,516
  • May 1, 2015 5:11am May 1, 2015 5:11am
out of the scene ... rules are getting void anyways its a nice friday .... and weekend starts ...

guys whats the plan for weekend ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #134,517
  • May 1, 2015 5:51am May 1, 2015 5:51am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} As far as I remember end of year rate estimate was around 0.625 in previous FOMC meeting by members. So, till January 2016 rate hike is expected. If you are super dovish you have 8 months for first hike before Jan 2016. If you are super hawkish than you have 2 months for first hike in June 2015 FOMC meetings calender June16-17 July28-29 September16-17 October27-28 December15-16
thanks for clearing something, got it!

Quoting sisse
{quote} In general, for reference in any currency: hikes alone, you sell expectations and "buy the fact" [in equities] ... the opposite for the underlying currency [buy expectations, "sell the fact"].... Most of Europe on holiday and London about to pack for a long weekend (Monday holiday) so nothing to see until NY. For the look of charts across the board, the main moves were already decided and digested in the last few days so expecting a very dull day until the close. sisse
yes but for EURUSD alone right now, ths pair is really strong from others major pairs, huge demand in EUR and i dont get it why. Even GU has retreated 200 pip, NU ~150 pips, AU 140 pips and this pair keep climbing. The 'Buy expectation, sell the fact' looks coiled everyone. Does anyone really trust in EUR at the moment by its current economy (?)
  • #134,518
  • May 1, 2015 7:38am May 1, 2015 7:38am
Quoting Sants
...Does anyone really trust in EUR at the moment by its current economy (?)
The panic mode in the euro passed a long time ago (nearly 2 years ago) It's not about trust its about common sense and real macro fundamentals now.

Major currencies don't just collapse one day to the other, sure you could/can bet in a quick leg on risk but it will be always be short lived if its made on PANIC. Thats why the euro never broke down sustainably with force during the panic times until (2012) .. and it will never do [on panic] because you are talking about the largest trading block in the world, 12 of its members are in the top 20 richest countries in the world, is the 1st and/or 2nd major importer and exporter in almost every single sector and to wrapped up is the biggest rich consumer area in the world, etc, etc, etc ...

As soon as panic was settle [+/-2012] we just smoothly and sustainably broke down without the fuss of euro is going to collapse blah blah and real fundamentals start weighting in the pair ...

Point is, markets rode the QE/negative rates in the EZ with gusto. Just healthy profit taking and a pullback to get ready for the next macro leg on FED hikes...don't mixed up with trust or collapse, panic, etc ...if we get again a panic attack in the euro via Greece, etc ...you know what will happen? ...we WILL NEVER reach to parity until panic is clear. Major currencies reflect better the underlying fundamental value and don't like extremes times because they are key benchmarks for the world economy ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,519
  • Edited 7:54am May 1, 2015 7:44am | Edited 7:54am
Probably going to L the aussie between 7804 and 7814

Rock or Miss- either of you have the 5 day ATR on that? Should be close
  • #134,520
  • May 1, 2015 8:16am May 1, 2015 8:16am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Point is, markets rode the QE/negative rates in the EZ with gusto. Just healthy profit taking and a pullback to get ready for the next macro leg on FED hikes...don't mixed up with trust or collapse, panic, etc ...if we get again a panic attack in the euro via Greece, etc ...you know what will happen? ...we WILL NEVER reach to parity until panic is clear. Major currencies reflect better the underlying fundamental value and don't like extremes times because they are key benchmarks for the world economy
By current data till this time, is it healthy enough stop the profit taking and resume the downtrend or hikes needs to in the game? If Fed hike needs to rejoin, then couple of weeks later it should be further upward perhaps 1.15 unlocked? What kind of problem in the Greece for its going to happen? Greexit? My bad keep asking levels....
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