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  • #134,441
  • Apr 29, 2015 5:42pm Apr 29, 2015 5:42pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} corrected


I forgot how solid the foundation can be around here. Beautiful reminder, Hatches.

Next time you slice of pie isn't humble...
Its on me.

  • #134,442
  • Apr 29, 2015 5:44pm Apr 29, 2015 5:44pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
I meant "accused", not insulted.
k...let me re-read, but...

NO way!

If accused (wrongly)...why the huff and puff?

Wanker! Prove otherwise!
  • #134,443
  • Apr 29, 2015 5:47pm Apr 29, 2015 5:47pm
Quoting kenfen69
{quote} k...let me re-read, but... NO way! If accused (wrongly)...why the huff and puff? Wanker! Prove otherwise!
k, understood.
  • #134,444
  • Apr 29, 2015 5:55pm Apr 29, 2015 5:55pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} k, understood.
Agree though?

You don't have to. I trust your judgement. 100%
  • #134,445
  • Apr 29, 2015 5:59pm Apr 29, 2015 5:59pm
Everything's fine. Can you keep May, 15th to settle a bit more?
  • #134,446
  • Edited 8:17pm Apr 29, 2015 7:53pm | Edited 8:17pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} RATES mode trading (RMT ... this is my own acronym from now on) = Sell equities, sell commodities (especially gold) buy dollar and close your eyes until is over. There will be no other fundamental force, macro numbers or else that will prime over a CB about to hike. ​Basically, If you are long term buy and hold small investor is time to sleep and look somewhere else. The strength will last until the first mini hike and thereafter it will start fading away as the final inflation and interest rate targets gets more and more clear...
What levels are you tracking as the maximum upward momentum for EU bull until the RMT? As we know, after NY closing EU close above the daily resistance and beyond last FOMC high, probably bouncing back to the resistance turns into support (1.1052) till mid/end May? Im tracking as far as 1.1340/53 as the final bull station. CB will do surprise hike some-time between mid/end May - September? So whats the last 'indicator' for the Fed to make sure its hike time if they re no longer looking at employment etc etc?

edit: 1.1340/53 come from the confluence of 1.618 larger fibs (daily swing) with 3.618 lower fibs (h4 swing), which is the last leg of the beginning of bear crab harmonics
  • #134,447
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:13am Apr 30, 2015 2:13am
Quoting sisse
{quote} RATES mode trading (RMT ... this is my own acronym from now on) = Sell equities, sell commodities (especially gold) buy dollar and close your eyes until is over. There will be no other fundamental force, macro numbers or else that will prime over a CB about to hike. ​Basically, If you are long term buy and hold small investor is time to sleep and look somewhere else. The strength will last until the first mini hike and thereafter it will start fading away as the final inflation and interest rate targets gets more and more clear and...
Hi sisse,
I can see what you are reading but am puzzled about timing aspects.
"is time to sleep" contradicts with "the strength will last until the first mini hike"
Of course coming hikes are a risk for equity traders, but it's not black and white, GDP growth PE-ratios also counts.
I'm not that pessimistic for the coming months (this year)
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #134,448
  • Apr 30, 2015 3:07am Apr 30, 2015 3:07am
Do any1 has to say anything about this .....

"when you don't understand anything why the hell things happening ... stay out of it "
Re-Incarnated
  • #134,449
  • Apr 30, 2015 3:11am Apr 30, 2015 3:11am
1.1237 short, next one 1.1286 if it will reach there.
  • #134,450
  • Apr 30, 2015 3:20am Apr 30, 2015 3:20am
Quoting sisse
On the fundamental side not expecting much.

  1. Expecting a mildish/"nothing new" on the FED with tangentially some small hints on the expectations of last bad numbers but in general,[check]
  2. HIKES ARE coming in September so from mid/end MAY will enter officially in RATES mode trading till the summer.[in play]

Quote
On the technical side

  1. Key levels in play with a play that extends to the W/M roll combo.
  2. For the second time this year we have MID TERM macro swing levels in play. 1.122x [in play]is KEY and only macro level in play until the M/W roll for the leg to PARITY.
  3. We also have MAIN SWING levels in play until the W roll and next Tuesday that Europe comes back from Holidays. 1.126x [in play]i

...

Quote
For the actual flows

  1. There is not much left. Bastards rode the meat of the meat before the noise but without surprises on the FOMC ...he simple technical plays for the M/W rolls are the ones in action:
  2. 1.112x [check] only level to track for the daily close for a simple play to 1.121x [check]with extension (exhaustion leg) to 1.128x [in play]

...


...and that was pretty much it for this month and session. Taking 1.121x mini target in the opening range from the FOMC and only leaving a tiny rest for the "just in case" to clear 1.126x/8x area... but the move is pretty much over ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,451
  • Apr 30, 2015 3:54am Apr 30, 2015 3:54am
Quoting Sants
{quote} What levels are you tracking as the maximum upward momentum for EU bull until the RMT?
1.13xx looks like a very strong reference. Don't forget this a mid term (weeks to months) swing area so a couple of hundred ticks around the current area is peanuts (it will be a tiny wick in your major charts) for a +1200 ticks leg...

Quote
As we know, after NY closing EU close above the daily resistance and beyond last FOMC high, probably bouncing back to the resistance turns into support (1.1052) till mid/end May?

My 2 cents, let the M/W close combos play out this week before you map minor legs ...

Quote
So whats the last 'indicator' for the Fed to make sure its hike time if they re no longer looking at employment etc etc? ...

In a nutshell: Treasuries

If you want to have a simple handy hint think about the following:

From May 2015 to January 2016 (+/- 8 months) THERE WILL BE HIKES. For the extreme dovish is nearly 8 months for the super hawkish 2 months. A rough average is 1 Quarter (3 months) before rates are actually hike for markets to position for the real hikes ... you can do the math .... I can guarantee you, that you will have an estimate timing as strong/close as the top notch guys in GS and friends ...

I hope it helps.

Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} ... puzzled about timing aspects. "is time to sleep" contradicts with "the strength will last until the first mini hike"
What i meant, if you are the average retail investor the easy time to just buy anything in equities and it will go up will be over until the hikes take place and get digested. The last 2 years even the most sluggish investor would have make money in equities ...time to sleep means that those times will be over. Stocks WONT rally in manic mode any longer, especially in the US.

The strength, i was referring to the strength of the impact of hikes in the markets. Meaning dollar strength, equities weakness...

Quote
Of course coming hikes are a risk for equity traders, but it's not black and white, GDP growth PE-ratios also counts. I'm not that pessimistic for the coming months (this year)

I agree with you about the actual fundamental value of the underlying will always play a roll but the easy engine of free money and low interest will be over, therefore it wont be just buy anything and it will go up... retail buy and hold will struggle as they will need to actually do a lot more homework if you want to make money in equities.

I am not pessimistic at all. After one of largest rallies in the history of stock markets (in the DAX for example is the biggest ever), at all time highs, with nearly 0 interest rates and with a massive QE already digested, a first rate hike just call for COMMON SENSE.

A breather and a pullback on macro numbers doesn't mean panic or a downtrend, it jus mean time to take profit and pullback to adjust value (in equities) to the new rates/inflation levels thats all. In the long term hikes to a more sustainable levels are actually VERY positive and BULLISH ...but that is for after the hikes...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,452
  • Apr 30, 2015 4:37am Apr 30, 2015 4:37am
All clear, thanks for the clarification sisse.
Sometimes like a real pro, your words assumes the same professionalism from us mortals making it difficult to read
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #134,453
  • Edited 6:14am Apr 30, 2015 5:40am | Edited 6:14am
EU, blue numbers should work for longs, best bet is next week into the new month. I feel like someone has said 0942 before- not sure who

In GU, the current top 1.5497 bounced off a 50 (1.5497) which should be good for a long later on before shorting 5722 or 5877
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  • #134,454
  • Apr 30, 2015 6:27am Apr 30, 2015 6:27am
Quoting primejarvis
Do any1 has to say anything about this ..... "when you don't understand anything why the hell things happening ... stay out of it "
"I knew something was wrong somewhere, but I couldn’t spot it exactly. But if something was coming and I didn’t know where from, I couldn’t be on my guard against it. That being the case I’d better be out of the market. "

"I always made money when I was sure I was right before I began. "


J.Livermore
  • #134,455
  • Apr 30, 2015 6:55am Apr 30, 2015 6:55am
Quoting Pharm0r
EU, blue numbers should work for longs, best bet is next week into the new month. I feel like someone has said 0942 before- not sure who In GU, the current top 1.5497 bounced off a 50 (1.5497) which should be good for a long later on before shorting 5722 or 5877 {image}
Those blue lines does not fit on my charts( 0-100 levels), I guess we use gator's system differently
  • #134,456
  • Apr 30, 2015 6:55am Apr 30, 2015 6:55am
have a good weekend all....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #134,457
  • Apr 30, 2015 6:56am Apr 30, 2015 6:56am
Quoting PayTheLimit
have a good weekend all....
Thanks mate, you too!

P.S. Did you catch UJ short? Was not watching for some days, but might break out to the downside soon ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #134,458
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:05am Apr 30, 2015 7:05am
Quoting sisse
....and surprise surprise ....we rolled as expected with 1.112x in play. Nothing new to do until the M/W roll combo. Same levels, same trades, same all... {quote} {quote} This is not a process that start on an exact time and date!!! Its just a very important information you need to have in the FA background for whatever you are planning to invest/trade. It will start in the next few weeks and any sane trader has to be aware of it ... Fighting hikes is choosing the pattern of MORE resistance and as you know we look for EXACTLY the opposite when trading....
Thank you sir, again and again
  • #134,459
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:12am Apr 30, 2015 7:12am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Those blue lines does not fit on my charts( 0-100 levels), I guess we use gator's system differently
I use them very differently. Didn't we have this talk (edit: maybe it was with Larry)? I refer to these as experimental numbers....when they work they work. found them by accident when I first started....so far they've worked well for bearish markets, now to see if they work in the bullish one.

The thing I've noticed, is his method can be used in many different ways, and still work. In fact many different methods are constantly in work at the same time. Some better than others. The premise is that .50 is everywhere, constantly in every tick. Something is always .50 of something before, and it often repeats. Can turn into quite the mind fuck. Using this theory, you can explain every single tick if you just look for it hard and long enough...but is it true? I don't know. All I have to know is if it works and can be traded. 4 months now it has worked, and been traded.

Have you ever seen Inception?

edit: I also use his numbers in the "correct" way, or should I say the more Orthodox way.
  • #134,460
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:14am Apr 30, 2015 7:14am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} {quote} ...and that was pretty much it for this month and session. Taking 1.121x mini target in the opening range from the FOMC and only leaving a tiny rest for the "just in case" to clear 1.126x/8x area... but the move is pretty much over ... sisse
Agree levels, one relevant chart(same chart from yesterday, updated.)
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