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  • #985,821
  • Apr 30, 2015 1:57am Apr 30, 2015 1:57am
Quoting comeinvest
{quote} my opinion, EU could move higher . well, i will put to BE once hit 20 pips and let it run because today high news day, could be very volatile and very profitable
Serial of bad data don't seem to affect to flow which seems pretty much decided for months end

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  • #985,822
  • Apr 30, 2015 1:57am Apr 30, 2015 1:57am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} not really. It is mainly euro and cable bounce in the last few sessions. Aussie and kiwi did not move that much, and UJ basically did not move
UJ didn't move because both US and JPY are sold together....
EUR, GBP, NZD, AUD they all gained against the USD..... its dollar being sold off on bad data. not euro strength because nothing fundamental good coming out of euro yet... euro is kind of neutral. just look at the CFTC report.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #985,823
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:03am Apr 30, 2015 2:03am
Don't know if this will have much of an impact now, but it is a bit better than expected ... still a huge drama in spain.
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #985,824
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:05am Apr 30, 2015 2:05am
hey fxtyrant,
I've been following you for awhile now and I keep trying to find opportunities to short this pair with good MM.
You recently said that yesterday's move is just a correction and you are just waiting for a double top resistance before you short this pair.
I just want to ask your opinion, at what price level are we expected to say that the tide has turned in favor of the bulls?

thanks
  • #985,825
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:06am Apr 30, 2015 2:06am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} I agree you are pretty quick to sense the bounce of euro.
that's when i close the short, but i don't enter long after that. i just wait it out....
i don't like that eerie feeling of trading against the trend, it does look intriguing and probably rewarding in the short term, but i know it only takes 1 trade where i go against the long term trend and end up being bit in the ass...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #985,826
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:09am Apr 30, 2015 2:09am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Serial of bad data don't seem to affect to flow which seems pretty much decided for months end {image}
yup, i do agreed ~~ let's see how it's going to play out for the last day of the month
  • #985,827
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:09am Apr 30, 2015 2:09am
Quoting Lord Bolton
hey fxtyrant, I've been following you for awhile now and I keep trying to find opportunities to short this pair with good MM. You recently said that yesterday's move is just a correction and you are just waiting for a double top resistance before you short this pair. I just want to ask your opinion, at what price level are we expected to say that the tide has turned in favor of the bulls? thanks
i don't give a specific price level, but rather look at psych levels like 1.1, 1.11, 1.12, 1.13 etc etc to see if price action at these round numbered levels would present a reason to go short on the EURUSD. and right now i still don't see the PA in favor of shorting yet. for all i care this thing could go up to 1.2 before it presents any reaction.... but i sure as hell wont be in any trade atm until i see something. but guess what even if it does pull up to 1.2 its only 50% retracement of the eurusd drop from 1.4...... so this thing is still bearish....

meanwhile im having my eyes on USDJPY... amazed at how resiliently supported the USDJPY is despite all the bad data coming out... 118.80 seems like pivotal level we cant seem to get a direction whether to go above or below it....

meanwhile US treasury yields are supporting the USDJPY as we speak.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #985,828
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:09am Apr 30, 2015 2:09am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} that's when i close the short, but i don't enter long after that. i just wait it out.... i don't like that eerie feeling of trading against the trend, it does look intriguing and probably rewarding in the short term, but i know it only takes 1 trade where i go against the long term trend and end up being bit in the ass...
Yeah it sounds ideal if you know when will the trend end.
So you you are 100% absolutely sure the trend is still down?
f(z)=z2+c
  • #985,829
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:10am Apr 30, 2015 2:10am
Quoting hathor
{quote} You are right, it's not 25%, just ~15%. My bad. The evidence is your FF account...
you are right sir.
  • #985,830
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:11am Apr 30, 2015 2:11am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Yeah it sounds ideal if you know when will the trend end. So you you are 100% absolutely sure the trend is still down?
Yep. just think of the fundamentals.

wts the Fed's position? easing or tightening? whats the ECB's position easing or tightening?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #985,831
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:12am Apr 30, 2015 2:12am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Yeah it sounds ideal if you know when will the trend end. So you you are 100% absolutely sure the trend is still down?
is the trend still down? when the strong down trend channel got broken, we have to think otherwise.

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #985,832
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:13am Apr 30, 2015 2:13am
Quoting hathor
{quote} You are right, it's not 25%, just ~15%. My bad. The evidence is your FF account...
dude 15% drawdown was something from the past. right now the USDJPY long trade im holding isn't even 4%..... so why should i panic?....
im just saying....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #985,833
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:17am Apr 30, 2015 2:17am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Yep. just think of the fundamentals. wts the Fed's position? easing or tightening? whats the ECB's position easing or tightening?
Are you kidding me? Euro going to the toilet has got nothing to do with this move or any trading move for that matter. In the long run the probability of our survival is zero as zero hedge likes to put it. So then lets all stop eating and just die? I think most market players would agree with you when you say that Euro will weaken but that tells us zilch about how many turns it will take along the way and for how long.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #985,834
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:24am Apr 30, 2015 2:24am
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} Are you kidding me? Euro going to the toilet has got nothing to do with this move or any trading move for that matter. In the long run the probability of our survival is zero as zero hedge likes to put it. So then lets all stop eating and just die? I think most market players would agree with you when you say that Euro will weaken but that tells us zilch about how many turns it will take along the way and for how long.
hear this from me. EURO is crap. puppish?

you know what i want to see for EURO to be worth something?? Labour law reforms in Europe so their productivity gets back on track, Pensions are way too high in Europe, often having to borrow the states money to provide for social security...
next Monetary policy split up.... why should Greece abide to the damn monetary policy that ECB are imposing, with its obvious beneficiary of Germany and France alone??
come on man.... let Greece have their own set of monetary policy to devalue the Euro as mucha s they want to promote growth in Greece....

meanwhile i don't give a crap/rats ass about euro.... im watching USDJPY. bad US data cant seem to make it drop. and what doesn't drop will rise.... watch USDJPY head for 120 and above again.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #985,835
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:30am Apr 30, 2015 2:30am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} hear this from me. EURO is crap. puppish? you know what i want to see for EURO to be worth something?? Labour law reforms in Europe so their productivity gets back on track, Pensions are way too high in Europe, often having to borrow the states money to provide for social security... next Monetary policy split up.... why should Greece abide to the damn monetary policy that ECB are imposing, with its obvious beneficiary of Germany and France alone?? come on man.... let Greece have their own set of monetary policy to devalue the Euro as mucha...
Doesn't matter for trading medium-short term. That is something we should never forget. It amazes me when I hear fundamental arguments from people trading on 5 min time scales. But yes some of those measures will help. And I think, Grexit will take this higher.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #985,836
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:34am Apr 30, 2015 2:34am
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} Doesn't matter for trading medium-short term. That is something we should never forget. It amazes me when I hear fundamental arguments from people trading on 5 min time scales. But yes some of those measures will help. And I think, Grexit will take this higher.
Grexit is a wild card which i don't even dare to think of what the outcome and how investors would interpret it...

Grexit - pro euro, only if investors think that greek exit would finally be less of a burden for the euro zone.

Grexit - con euro, only if investors lose confidence in the entire EU financial system, also not to mention the potential of those rescue packages that Troika has provided to Greece would never be paid back by the greeks....


so which outcome and interpretation is it??
its all about confidence in Europe and right now theres not a whole lot of confidence out there for Europe....

btw great trading on your trade explorer, seems like you're getting your shit together
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #985,837
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:37am Apr 30, 2015 2:37am
Quoting Hickson
Don't know if this will have much of an impact now, but it is a bit better than expected ... still a huge drama in spain. {image}
Indeed. All the time in this year Greece has to pay 28billion euro. 1May - 203mln Euro, 11/12May 770mln euro. June 1,6 billion euro.
  • #985,838
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:39am Apr 30, 2015 2:39am
Quoting comeinvest
{quote} yup, i do agreed ~~ let's see how it's going to play out for the last day of the month
Sweet .......... this will be the last straw

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  • #985,839
  • Edited 2:51am Apr 30, 2015 2:39am | Edited 2:51am
ON BIG CHART
we maybe meet the big down trend line this time,at least 1.15.and 1.1 zone will be a big support.
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #985,840
  • Apr 30, 2015 2:41am Apr 30, 2015 2:41am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Grexit is a wild card which i don't even dare to think of what the outcome and how investors would interpret it... Grexit - pro euro, only if investors think that greek exit would finally be less of a burden for the euro zone. Grexit - con euro, only if investors lose confidence in the entire EU financial system, also not to mention the potential of those rescue packages that Troika has provided to Greece would never be paid back by the greeks.... so which outcome and interpretation is it?? its all about confidence in Europe and right...
I don't think the market ever expected that anyways. The EURO has fallen for a reason, right. Which part has been priced in and which part is yet to be is hard for me to tell.
Thanks for the compliment. I am a long timer here but have restarted posting only recently. And I can proudly say that I have blown many accounts. Someone welcomed me to Forex today and I thought of asking him how many account has he blown up yet. But let it go.
The price will go where it has to go.
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