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Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics

  • #261
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:13am Apr 16, 2015 9:13am
Quoting Evak
GU continuation trade entry after previous 2 days of bracket break out after NY session opens. (Charts shown with 3,5,10 days overlay) {image} AU & SGD trade both breakout of 3 day brackets {image} {image} EURUSD fail trade after yesterday NY opens. But we got another opportunity today.. {image}
You found some great opportunities yesterday. I like how you delt with the EU.
I was eyeballing the EU chart myself, but missed the opportunity to act. I spread myself a little thin, between trading and learning Python & SQL Database. Next to trading, programming is one of the most difficult things I've ever had to learn. I like the idea of building my own tools. Should of done this years ago. I like having an idea and be able to execute it.

Great Trades! (it's nice to see a post, other than my own )
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #262
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:51am Apr 16, 2015 9:51am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} Thanx, Its always a pleasure when you drop by, Last I spoke with him, he needed to stop making improvements until hes had a chance to upgrade his computer. I havent heard word for awhile. You should try "rattling his cage", see what you come up with
Hello mzvega !!!!!!!

Besides taking in the wealth of knowledge you have shared on this thread, I have started to look into Order Flow. It really is a shame all the invaluable information that a retail trader is not privy to.

What's more amazing is the fact that one can trade the ES, for example, with as little as 6 ticks of risk.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #263
  • Edited 12:42pm Apr 17, 2015 12:27pm | Edited 12:42pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Hello mzvega !!!!!!! Besides taking in the wealth of knowledge you have shared on this thread, I have started to look into Order Flow. It really is a shame all the invaluable information that a retail trader is not privy to. What's more amazing is the fact that one can trade the ES, for example, with as little as 6 ticks of risk. {image}
Ive spent several months in the past looking into Order flow. I can see why price traders find it appealing. When I experimented with it, I found it to be of use. However, if I was a different type of trader, it might be something Id use daily. Dont get me wrong, for traders who trade price, it makes a wonderful tool.

But for me personally, I view things from an AMVT perspective, which has its own concepts of what is considered a permitted practice and the type of data used for analysis.

Some people define Supply & Demand as line drawn on a chart, from a AMVT perspective, demand is created by traders who are willing to hold their positions overnight which makes Volume in the intraday TF (Daily) misleading. (for those taking a longer term view on things)

e.g. Intraday you can see huge volume numbers, this volume is created by many different types of traders, but how many of those traders will exit the trade by the end of the trading day? The volume created by those traders is not a true indication of true demand, the demand created by these traders will leave the market by the end of the trading day. From an AMVT perspective true demand, that moves markets, is determined by the traders who are willing to hold positions overnight.

From an AMVT perspective the daily TF is not a large enough sample to determine the longer term condition of the market. Rather than using volume, by understanding how & where different participants use prices, you can analyze the different participants along with their conviction. . I prefer Quantifiable Measures of data.

AMVT takes a longer term view on things, where as MP methodology is used for the intraday TF. Remember MP was used by floor traders, who never held positions overnight. From an AMVT perspective it can be misleading.

I can see where order flow can be invaluabe for VSA & MP traders alike as an intraday methodology. Order Flow data is valuable information. Its just not something I personally incorporate in my trading.

Thanx for sharing!!!!
I always value your opinions.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #264
  • Apr 17, 2015 12:40pm Apr 17, 2015 12:40pm
Order flow gave me very bad scalping habits that I'm slowly overcoming now, works though (what doesn't really?).

Supply & Demand lines on a chart work specifically because those moves are initiated and ended by other timeframe buyers and sellers, not speculative day traders. That's why my lines are honored even months in the future. There is just no way all those huge daytime moves are in any way created by anything other than big holders, holding longer than a day. You're a swing trader or?
  • #265
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:11pm Apr 17, 2015 1:11pm
Quoting hieronymus
Order flow gave me very bad scalping habits that I'm slowly overcoming now, works though (what doesn't really?). Supply & Demand lines on a chart work specifically because those moves are initiated and ended by other timeframe buyers and sellers, not speculative day traders. That's why my lines are honored even months in the future. There is just no way all those huge daytime moves are in any way created by anything other than big holders, holding longer than a day. You're a swing trader or?
The content of the thread should give you an idea of the Methodology I use for trading. (Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics ) I wouldnt call myself a Swing trader". I take what the Market offers me. I trade changes in market condition. When the condition of the market changes, so does my bias. I use quantifiable measures to determine if we are trending or not, quantifiable measures to determine when the trend begins & ends, quantifiable measures to determine probabilities of continuation of the current market condition, etc.....
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #266
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:19pm Apr 17, 2015 1:19pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} The content of the thread should give you an idea of the Methodology I use for trading. (Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics ) I wouldnt call myself a Swing trader". I take what the Market offers me. I trade changes in market condition. When the condition of the market changes, so does my bias. I use quantifiable measures to determine if we are trending or not, quantifiable measures to determine when the trend begins & ends, quantifiable measures to determine probabilities of continuation of the current market condition, etc.....
Nice, very empirical: ) I'm more of a mad scientist. I think I'll get to what your talking about soon, I read threads from newest to oldest.
  • #267
  • Apr 23, 2015 1:34am Apr 23, 2015 1:34am
A tight 3 day overlap on the NZDUSD yesterday provide an excellent opportunity for this sell break out trade & exceeding the 5 days bracket too..
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AUDNZD was reversing rapidly for the pass 3 days into a bracket trade opportunity for a buy...now lingering above the 5&10 days upper limit zone...
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  • #268
  • Edited 12:09pm Apr 23, 2015 11:32am | Edited 12:09pm
I always like to post trades that show that data from the intraday TF (Daily Profile) is not an adequate sample to determine the longer term "Condition" of the Market.

I prefer Quantitative measures. Are we trending?... yes or no
Are we facilitating trade?... yes or no
Do buyers outweigh sellers? Yes or no
How long have we been Trending? 1 day, 2 days? 3 days?
etc.

IMO, "Quantitative" analysis is much more informative than "IT LOOKS LIKE" analysis.
I'm more concerned with what the "Data" says, not what a "Picture" of the data looks like..
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #269
  • Apr 23, 2015 11:43am Apr 23, 2015 11:43am
Quoting Evak
A tight 3 day overlap on the NZDUSD yesterday provide an excellent opportunity for this sell break out trade & exceeding the 5 days bracket too.. {image} AUDNZD was reversing rapidly for the pass 3 days into a bracket trade opportunity for a buy...now lingering above the 5&10 days upper limit zone... {image}
Those were excellent opportunities!
It sucks trading -8 gmt, some of the best opportunities happen while I'm sleeping
Again, Great trading!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #270
  • Apr 24, 2015 1:33am Apr 24, 2015 1:33am
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #271
  • Apr 28, 2015 7:54am Apr 28, 2015 7:54am
I missed the initial break, in the overnight, but the "Market Generated Data" confirmed a BO on high volatility, and the probability of the continuation of higher prices. Although a little late, I entered in the NY session.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #272
  • Apr 29, 2015 2:46am Apr 29, 2015 2:46am
Very Nice illustration Mzvega;

I have a good run for GU too after breakout of balance last thursday & added on continuation after the pause on monday.
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I too have an AUD pair in play (AUDCAD), which broke up yesterday with 3,5,10 day bracketing. Now hanging on with a deep pullback on this pause.
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  • #273
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:45am Apr 30, 2015 7:45am
Quoting Evak
Very Nice illustration Mzvega; I have a good run for GU too after breakout of balance last thursday & added on continuation after the pause on monday. {image} I too have an AUD pair in play (AUDCAD), which broke up yesterday with 3,5,10 day bracketing. Now hanging on with a deep pullback on this pause. {image}
You make it look, way too easy!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #274
  • Edited 11:28pm May 1, 2015 9:40am | Edited 11:28pm
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #275
  • May 18, 2015 1:57pm May 18, 2015 1:57pm
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #276
  • May 18, 2015 2:44pm May 18, 2015 2:44pm
I know many have no interest in Auction Market Value Analytics.

However, Bandung has made the a Composite/Overlay profile indicator based on the book "Value-Based Power Trading" by Donald Jones, some might be more familiar with it as the "Overlay's" found at the cisco-futures site. He has made it available for download. Anyone familiar with his work can find some of his other indicators there as well. He also has an update to the better volume indicator........
The book is available on page 1

http://www.fxindi.net/
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #277
  • May 19, 2015 5:45am May 19, 2015 5:45am
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #278
  • May 19, 2015 11:23am May 19, 2015 11:23am
Very good analysis Claudia when the condition & flow data comes together nicely.
I have a similar short trade for GU too as it was testing the LL of 3&5 days bracket during UK opens prior the break below it.
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My focus are mainly on majors for now....

UJ taken out all 3,5,& 10 days bracket sequentially for a long trade
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AU Similar to GU was testing the LL during UK open for a short.
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USDCAD with trending 3&5 days non bracketing but a 10 days bracket that was testing the Upper Limit prior to Break out for a long.
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  • #279
  • May 20, 2015 11:55pm May 20, 2015 11:55pm
For anyone who may be interested, Bandung has made the free version of Market Profile TPO Chart Indicator available for download. It has all the features & functions of the full version. It's just that this version will expire every Sunday. If you need it again, you can download the unexpired one from the free download page.

This is one of the most versatile of his indicators imo. It contains a merge and export feature.

Inserted Video

http://www.fxindi.net/
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #280
  • May 26, 2015 8:30am May 26, 2015 8:30am
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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