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Sonic R. System

  • #80,841
  • Apr 27, 2015 12:12pm Apr 27, 2015 12:12pm
Is the classic setup the savior?

If you look back at my previous post about my bias, you could see I was correct during the London open, but as the day progressed, it was proving me more and more wrong. Yet, I managed to take only one trade which was profitable, 27 pips. How I made only one trade? I was waiting for the classic setup to confirm my bias, but it happened only once out of seven pairs analyzed. Waiting for the classic setup saved me from making additional mistakes upon the first one. Had I taken scout trades I could have been caught on the wrong side of the market. In essence, the classic setup saved me from my poor PVSRA analysis.

Marijan
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  • #80,842
  • Apr 27, 2015 12:37pm Apr 27, 2015 12:37pm
Quoting marijan993
Is the classic setup the savior? If you look back at my previous post about my bias, you could see I was correct during the London open, but as the day progressed, it was proving me more and more wrong. Yet, I managed to take only one trade which was profitable, 27 pips. How I made only one trade? I was waiting for the classic setup to confirm my bias, but it happened only once out of seven pairs analyzed. Waiting for the classic setup saved me from making additional mistakes upon the first one. Had I taken scout trades I could have been caught...
Exactly! Better one green a day or even a week untill we are more expirienced...

EURUSD update:
The end of my "experiment" and trading higher timeframes.. for now at least! (Tah was right again)
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Oh, well!
PVSRA
  • #80,843
  • Apr 27, 2015 12:40pm Apr 27, 2015 12:40pm
EU Long +48 pips
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No Greed Is Always Green
  • #80,844
  • Apr 27, 2015 12:52pm Apr 27, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting marijan993
Is the classic setup the savior? If you look back at my previous post about my bias, you could see I was correct during the London open, but as the day progressed, it was proving me more and more wrong. Yet, I managed to take only one trade which was profitable, 27 pips. How I made only one trade? I was waiting for the classic setup to confirm my bias, but it happened only once out of seven pairs analyzed. Waiting for the classic setup saved me from making additional mistakes upon the first one. Had I taken scout trades I could have been caught...
Sonic Classic will give you a highe probability of sucess edge with local trend aggreement, but don't get married to it. Always look at higher TFs. With the trend is nice until you hit major S/R, in which everything crumbles. Would you buy into resistance or sell into support? Just some things to think about.

But... very nice trade! Patience pays.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #80,845
  • Apr 27, 2015 2:34pm Apr 27, 2015 2:34pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Exactly! Better one green a day or even a week untill we are more expirienced... EURUSD update: The end of my "experiment" and trading higher timeframes.. for now at least! (Tah was right again) {image} Oh, well!
H4 is da bomb.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #80,846
  • Apr 27, 2015 4:43pm Apr 27, 2015 4:43pm
Quoting qFish
Good Job everyone. Here are my trades for the week (about +200 pips for the week including current open trades): {image} {image} {image} {image} No more open entry trades for UJ since it's friday, it's one of my rules for not taking more entries to reduce weekend gap risk.
Trade update: Some outstanding trades closed with others opened. AU is the one currently trading against H4 trend to hedge the other three pairs.
+5062 Closed -1900 Open = +3162 Pips Total

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Great start of the week!
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #80,847
  • Apr 27, 2015 6:05pm Apr 27, 2015 6:05pm
Quoting leentjai
{quote} Closed GBP/AUD by TS average +23.2p Closed XAU/USD by TS Average +3.2 p Closed AUD/CAD average +16.9p AUD/NZD still opened {image} {image} {image}
AUD/NZD closed by TS average +1.9p
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  • #80,848
  • Apr 27, 2015 11:31pm Apr 27, 2015 11:31pm
Hi guys spotted a classic setup on the NZD/USD - it is on the H1 and its before the LO so ill wait and see about this one....but so far looks like it has potiential
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  • #80,849
  • Apr 28, 2015 1:27am Apr 28, 2015 1:27am
Quoting qFish
{quote} Trade update: Some outstanding trades closed with others opened. AU is the one currently trading against H4 trend to hedge the other three pairs. +5062 Closed -1900 Open = +3162 Pips Total {image} {image} {image} {image} Great start of the week!

Good job!!
I notice you are on 15min charts now. Is that because FOMC is coming up? Are you rules still the same? ie Using the 4hr chart, buy above the dragon and sell below?
Also I see you have switched from UChf to UCad.
  • #80,850
  • Apr 28, 2015 2:31am Apr 28, 2015 2:31am
Quoting traderathome
GBPJPY Long Trade Open: Classic and then Scout entry. We have stacking here: Trend angled up, Dragon above Trend and slightly angled up, and PA,....well it is struggling to break high above the Dragon. If it does not "soon" then there is increased likelihood there will be another low, maybe below the quarter Level, before this attempts to set up again. There are JPY high impact releases later in the week. If the MMs have SM short orders to fill higher up before those releases, they need to get this moving upwards. And a move upwards might take price...
GBPJPY Long Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 82.9 pips average, 4,143 pips total gain. Price has regained and is inching along the H&S neckline (see previous posts on this), and there is a GBP high impact release coming. No telling how things will go. Seems like a decent profit and maybe a decent time to take it.
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  • #80,851
  • Apr 28, 2015 3:06am Apr 28, 2015 3:06am
GBPJPY analysis

GBP went up more than 600 pips against JPY in the last few days without a serious backtrace. In M15 TF price started sidewalking with noticable bearish volume, maybe its time to short this pair? D1 TF trendline is near. Time will tell, but Im bearish on this now, but not opening trades yet.

Regards
FN


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Stay green! FN
  • #80,852
  • Edited 4:25am Apr 28, 2015 3:33am | Edited 4:25am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} AUDJPY update: 2 pos. closed, 1 runing on +BE without TP {image} GBPJPY update: 1 pos. closed, 2. SL closer {image}
GBPJPY closed (just in time)
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AUDJPY update: SL moved closer- don't like the dropping in buying volume..
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NZDJPY long open:
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MM's were keeping it below the whole number before LS (LO missed my SL by a pip)

EDIT:
NZDJPY TP hit
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Quoting traderathome
{quote} GBPJPY Long Trade Closed: Closed for gain of 82.9 pips average, 4,143 pips total gain. Price has regained and is inching along the H&S neckline (see previous posts on this), and there is a GBP high impact release coming. No telling how things will go. Seems like a decent profit and maybe a decent time to take it. {image}
WOW!
PVSRA
  • #80,853
  • Apr 28, 2015 4:03am Apr 28, 2015 4:03am
Clean win - loving it!

question to my sonic bros - do you guys trade/like/consider/rate sonic impluses on the h1
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  • #80,854
  • Apr 28, 2015 5:20am Apr 28, 2015 5:20am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} GBPJPY closed (just in time) {image} AUDJPY update: SL moved closer- don't like the dropping in buying volume.. {image} NZDJPY long open: {image} MM's were keeping it below the whole number before LS (LO missed my SL by a pip) EDIT: NZDJPY TP hit {image} {quote} WOW!
AUDJPY closed
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Could be it, or not..
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PVSRA
  • #80,855
  • Apr 28, 2015 5:28am Apr 28, 2015 5:28am
usd/cad short closed
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No Greed Is Always Green
  • #80,856
  • Edited 5:58am Apr 28, 2015 5:43am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting Ian V
{quote} Good job!! I notice you are on 15min charts now. Is that because FOMC is coming up? Are you rules still the same? ie Using the 4hr chart, buy above the dragon and sell below? Also I see you have switched from UChf to UCad.
Nope, I still only trade H4. I am on 15 so you guys can see the entries and exits as some of my trades are very quick, and cannot be seen on the H4. Remember, I use H4 for direction/bias (buy above and sell below dragon). Same rules as in my previous post. There is a small change since then. For first 10 trades, my TP is average price +10 pips. Beyond 10 trades, I use the 61.8% retrace as TP, which gives me a little better return (almost double for over 30 trade basket) but still high probability of success. The only pair that I'm not following this on is AU, which I'm using to hedge the other three pairs, just in case the trend reverses. So I'll normally be in drawdown AU and profit off of NU, UC, and UJ, or the opposite. Still fine tuning though. Here's my progress from H4 viewpoint:
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Note how I'm profiting off of NU, UC, and UJ while AU is in drawdown. This is the cycle. Sometimes, all my trades will closed in harmony and my open P/L very low. Other times, I've been in high DD for all pairs. It's just the way the market moves. The important thing is you manage your positions to easily ride the waves. You also gotta take note of the S/R to get out if you need to. If a major S/R is broken, there is a good chance for retest or small retrace to exit with a small loss. Or if you trade small enough, you will work with the Daily charts. For AU, we have a perfect example of how major S/R is in my favor although I'm in DD:
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Wouldn't you agree we are at a GREAT place for a short?
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #80,857
  • Apr 28, 2015 5:53am Apr 28, 2015 5:53am
gbp/usd long closed
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No Greed Is Always Green
  • #80,858
  • Apr 28, 2015 6:02am Apr 28, 2015 6:02am
Quoting fexitrade
Clean win - loving it! question to my sonic bros - do you guys trade/like/consider/rate sonic impluses on the h1 {image}
Classic should apply to any time frame, but higher time frames will respect more, and take longer to realize, and will need bigger SL.

For PVSRA, you drill down to smaller TF to get a hint of what MMs are doing, that's all, no more no less. Use that and trade how you like.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #80,859
  • Apr 28, 2015 6:23am Apr 28, 2015 6:23am
Quoting traderathome
AUDJPY long Trade Open: Classic entry, late in LS. However, take a look at your H1 and H4 charts, both of which also show Dragon-Trend-PA bullish. Furthermore, LS PA has focused on moves below the whole number and back up, so the MMs could be concentrating on filling long orders of SM, and their own of course. This could be staging for a break up, maybe to RWH for another 100 pips or so. {image}
AUDJPY long Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 151 pips average, 15,104 pips total gain.

I have been thinking that this might make it to RWH area. And it might, still. But, I decided to take profit here and wait to see if there is a retrace, either in the coming US session or tomorrow. There is still plenty of time before the JPY high impact releases for the MMs to execute a retrace. Even if it goes higher without one, this has been a great trade as it stands.
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  • #80,860
  • Apr 28, 2015 6:53am Apr 28, 2015 6:53am
GBPJPY

That "news move" down now appears as a liquidity creation move; liquidity obtained by stopping out longs and sucking in DM shorts,.....all intended to help the MMs load up on more longs for maybe another leg higher before the JPY high impact releases.

Still, and regardless of what that move down was about, this is too late to long and way to early to short if the MMs plan on a reversal in conjunction with those releases. Surely there will be some ranging in a final area of highs so the MMs can take care of SM orders to close longs and open shorts by sucking in the DM needed to do this. That would be a time to start stalking this for the reversal move and a Classic setup short. Just my opinion, though.

On the other hand, maybe the plan is not to reverse, but go even higher. So I could be totally wrong. When the MMs begin to make pricing choppy, it is a good time to sit things out; just be patient and wait things out. That is another opinion of mine.

-tah
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