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Sonic R. System

  • #80,801
  • Apr 24, 2015 10:18am Apr 24, 2015 10:18am
Quoting goatee33
{quote} Dear tah Thanks for your input. Have re-edit the chart sizing as per page 1 post 1... The entry may be a few candles late...but could it be consider as classic entry? I thought so as the entry was placed below the dragon. Is my definition for the volume in H1 TF incorrect?
goatee33,

Thank you very much for promptly correcting the chart pictures.

Best Classic is with full stacking and in LS. As for comparing volume bars on H1 TF charts from one day to the next, look to see if you are comparing for same hours, or close to same hours, because there are times during a trading session day when volume will rise or fall based on the numbers of traders active. Also, when comparing volume bars not of same, or close hours from one day to the next, please consider that H1 highest volume bars in AS will likely be lower than H1 highest volume bars in LS, but they can be just as important.

tah
  • #80,802
  • Apr 24, 2015 10:42am Apr 24, 2015 10:42am
AUDJPY

Gals and Guys,

I have been nursing and building this trade in anticipation of a bull breakout high. It has not happened and the week is coming to a close. The fly in the ointment is there is a AUD high impact release near the open next week. Here is what I am thinking....

The price action symbolized by the Dragon-Trend remains bullish, and bullish stacking continues. But, price is only ranging, nearer the top of the range most recently. So, maybe the MMs are holding the price down while filling long orders for SM, and for themselves, of course. Maybe this is an indication the RBA Talking Head speech near the open next week is to be used by the MMs as their trigger to ram the price upwards.

What do you all think?

For me, the question is whether to fold with profit today, or patiently hold over the weekend to maybe catch a swift early move up next week, or even a gap up that might precede such a move.

tah
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  • #80,803
  • Apr 24, 2015 10:56am Apr 24, 2015 10:56am
EURUSD Long Trade Open/Close:

Closed for gain of 45.3 pips average, 6,793 pips total.

I could not resist trading what I saw as a liquidity creation drive downwards by the MMs to help them fill long orders. You can read my previous Alert on this one. I still feel the MMs have been filling SM long orders and that therefore this will go higher. I just do not want to hold this one over the weekend.
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  • #80,804
  • Edited 2:02pm Apr 24, 2015 11:09am | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting traderathome
AUDJPY Gals and Guys, I have been nursing and building this trade in anticipation of a bull breakout high. It has not happened and the week is coming to a close. The fly in the ointment is there is a AUD high impact release near the open next week. Here is what I am thinking.... The price action symbolized by the Dragon-Trend remains bullish, and bullish stacking continues. But, price is only ranging, nearer the top of the range most recently. So, maybe the MMs are holding the price down while filling long orders for SM, and for themselves, of course....
Hi TaH,

I am a little confused with the price action on the AUD/JPY M30 chart as it would seem that since LO today the price has been pushed up on relatively small volume and then pushed down with higher volume leaving the long wicks on the candles at the top of the trend. I am new to this but my feeling on this is it could indicate the MM's closing long positions and opening shorts at the top of the range throughout today. Perhaps this could indicate a push back down early next week?

Regards,

Pent

Edit: Nice trade on the EURUSD.....great way to end the week!
  • #80,805
  • Apr 24, 2015 11:17am Apr 24, 2015 11:17am
I think I finally figured out what went wrong with my charts (thank you fisher )
Here is a loonie trade I took today. Is everything ok here?
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  • #80,806
  • Edited 11:36am Apr 24, 2015 11:20am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting Pent56
{quote} Hi TaH, I am a little confused with the price action on the AUD/JPY M30 chart as it would seem that since LO today the price has been pushed up on relatively small volume and then pushed down with higher volume leaving the long wicks on the candles at the top of the trend. I am new to this but my feel on that is it could indicate the MM's closing long positions and opening shorts at the top of the range throughout today. Perhaps this could indicate a push back down early next week? Regards, Pent Edit: Nice trade on the EURUSD.....great way...
AUDJPY

Pent56, ET All,

Pent56, thank you for your comment.

I like to drop down to M5 and M1 charts frequently when trying to decipher what is going on.

In this attached M5 chart we can see twice in the AS the "buying" surges (my interpretation of the two green up thrusts in price from below the whole Level). This was followed in the LS by a strong push back below the whole Level (red down thrust), which I also take with a bullish view because I see it as a manipulation of the price by the MMs to get the price back below the whole Level so they can fill more long orders. Now, come the US session, we have that tall green bar spiking price back low and up again on very high activity. This too, I take with a bullish view. This was also followed later with a bear candle push back below the whole Level, (another red bar thrust down) which in turn was followed by another strong "buying" surge (green push back up from below the whole Level).

So, all in all, my interpretation of PVSRA is that the MMs are doing a lot of price manipulation so they can fill long orders for themselves and for SM. I think they are saving the drive up for next week.

tah
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  • #80,807
  • Apr 24, 2015 11:31am Apr 24, 2015 11:31am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AUDJPY Pent56, I like to drop down to M5 and M1 charts frequently when trying to decipher what is going on. In this attached M5 chart we can see twice in the AS the "buying" surges (my interpretation of the two green up thrusts in price from below the whole Level). This was followed in the LS by a strong push back below the whole Level (red down thrust), which I also take with a bullish view. Now, come the US session, we have that tall green bar spiking price back low and up again on very high activity. This too, I take with a bullish view....
TaH,

Ah! As always an excellent explanation. Thanks for replying so swiftly. I can now see why you view the PA as Bullish.

It also emphasises how drilling down into lower time frames is so important to help create the whole picture.

If I was in your position though I would still close my orders for small profit and sleep easy over the weekend!
  • #80,808
  • Edited 12:36pm Apr 24, 2015 11:54am | Edited 12:36pm
Quoting Pent56
{quote} TaH, Ah! As always an excellent explanation. Thanks for replying so swiftly. I can now see why you view the PA as Bullish. It also emphasises how drilling down into lower time frames is so important to help create the whole picture. If I was in your position though I would still close my orders for small profit and sleep easy over the weekend!
AUDJPY & PVSRA

On the M1 chart, see what is happening........in AFTER HOURS.........increased activity after the MMs whack the price! They absorbed all the pending "buy" orders at local SR on the price queue, and drove the price lower to use up all available liquidity that will enable them to fill more long orders of their own. Such liquidity is being provided by hitting and triggering pending short orders and by hitting the stops on existing longs of others. Thrice again, the MMs have taken the price below the whole Level to seek what they want. The MMs are really working this, considering it is AFTER HOURS on a FRIDAY!

To me, this says that something big and bullish is coming,........which we will probably have to wait for the open next week to see.

PVSRA cannot tell us how the thieving, price manipulating MMs will move price next. But, PVSRA can truly give us a good read on what these thieves are up to!


tah
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Follow-up: Then these thieves ram price back up through that local SR (green bar) and then back down to retest the area for any new pending short orders they can trigger.
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  • #80,809
  • Edited 12:37pm Apr 24, 2015 12:20pm | Edited 12:37pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AUDJPY & PVSRA On the M1 chart, see what is happening........in AFTER HOURS.........increased activity after the MMs whack the price! They absorbed all the pending "buy" orders at local SR on the price queue, and drove the price lower to use up all available liquidity that will enable them to fill more long orders of their own. Such liquidity is being provided by hitting and triggering pending short orders and by hitting the stops on existing longs of others. Twice again, the MMs have taken the price below the whole Level to seek what they...
"Brainstorming"

It is great reading and I am eager to read much more of such interactive brainstorming about PVSRA and price manipulation. Thank you and please do not hold back!
But Tah, why do you think it is not the ather way - building shorts- is it becouse of pushing the price below the whole level, or do you have a bias becouse of the volume or both (my untrained brain still see it only as tight ranging)? The only thing I would see on the side of longs from PA is that the slope up has a better angle then the slope down + the whole number.

(Marijan-)
PVSRA
  • #80,810
  • Apr 24, 2015 12:21pm Apr 24, 2015 12:21pm
GbpJpy + 63 pips
AudUsd +67 pips
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  • #80,811
  • Edited 1:00pm Apr 24, 2015 12:45pm | Edited 1:00pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} "Brainstorming" It is great reading and I am eager to read much more of such interactive brainstorming about PVSRA and price manipulation. Thank you and please do not hold back! But Tah, why do you think it is not the ather way - building shorts- is it becouse of pushing the price below the whole level, or do you have a bias becouse of the volume or both (my untrained brain still see it only as tight ranging)? The only thing I would see on the side of longs from PA is that the slope up has a better angle then the slope down + the whole...
AUDJPY

Since the multiple highs above this whole Level last week the MMs have kept price mostly below it, a PVSRA consideration. Yesterday and today it is clear that most of the price action has been below the whole Level, not above it. Though it might have been getting harder and harder for the MMs to hold the price down while also trying to fill long orders. And, such a large scale triangle pattern also suggests a break high could be coming.

Also, looking at the M30 chart, over this past week the notable volume area patterns are mostly all for moves low and back up out of them.

I could be wrong about this, have been before, but I see more clues that lead me to conclude this is bullish, than I do clues that lead me to conclude this is bearish. Well, time will tell.
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  • #80,812
  • Edited 1:05pm Apr 24, 2015 12:51pm | Edited 1:05pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AUDJPY Since the multiple highs above this whole Level last week the MMs have kept price mostly below it. Yesterday and today it is clear that most of the price action has been below the whole Level, not above it. Though it might have been getting harder and harder for the MMs to hold the price down while also trying to fill long orders. And, such a large scale triangle pattern also suggests a break high could be coming. {image}
It is much clearer now, thank you! ( It is like driving a car- when you start, you have a feeling you must think of many things at once and it seems difficult, after a few years you don't even know you are driving)

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AUDUSD update:
Closing small, but green. Nice weekend, everyone!
PVSRA
  • #80,813
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:45pm Apr 24, 2015 3:45pm
Good Job everyone. Here are my trades for the week (about +200 pips for the week including current open trades):

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No more open entry trades for UJ since it's friday, it's one of my rules for not taking more entries to reduce weekend gap risk.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #80,814
  • Apr 24, 2015 5:51pm Apr 24, 2015 5:51pm
Stats for the Week

5 trades
All winners - one still open in profit, the other four closed with profit
Gain of 10.8 pips average for the open trade
Total gain of 264.3 pips average for the four closed trades
Gain of 66.1 pips average per closed trade

PVSRA and Patience,
tah
  • #80,815
  • Apr 24, 2015 11:50pm Apr 24, 2015 11:50pm
The result of one week trade in AUD/USD and GBP/USD. By the way welcome back my beloved GURU, TAH. With your guidance I could show my consistent result of harvesting thousands pips.
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  • #80,816
  • Edited 10:23pm Apr 25, 2015 10:07pm | Edited 10:23pm
Which is It?

Dear Gals and Guys,

I received this PM, one with an important question, suitable to be answered here on the thread.......

Hello, just a question, didn't want to post it in the thread.
It seems from looking at your trades, that they're based more off "PVSRA" than the classic sonic type setups. I was just thinking to myself I wonder if it would be profitable to take small positions over time as evidence of institutional buying shows up.. high volume at lows, price rejection etc Then I remembered looking at your charts with tens of simultaneous trades and I wondered if that's essentially what you're doing? Multiple small positions with a very wide SL and adding to them whenever you see the footprints of smart money?
Cheers bud!

This question constantly arises. I will attempt to answer it, but I am sure that will not stop this question from coming up again and again and again, as new people arrive, and until the "light turns on" with some of those not so new.

First, let me restate, or more fully state the question. The question is this. Which is it; Classics or PVSRA? This question pits classics against something called PVSRA. What is PVSRA? Is it a trade entry method? Is it just an analysis method? And, even if it is just an analysis method, does that imply it is a trade entry method also?

You can see that this all comes down to the seeking of an answer to the question of how should we be trading here. Should we be looking for just Classic trades setups, or should we be doing both that and something else? Or, should we be doing just the "something else"?

I hope to lay this all out for everyone now. I hope to do it clearly. What you do with the information is up to you.

To start with, please understand something of the history of this thread. Briefly recapped, Classics came first. Then sonicdeejay introduced the Scout. The Scout was essentially a non-Classic method of attempting to spot highs/lows and enter not at them, but after sufficient PA supporting the idea that price is reversing. Just what this "sufficient PA" was, was never well defined. It has simply been stated that the trader needed to seek PA evidence of higher HLs or lower HLs, until there was "sufficient" evidence to warrant placing a trade in the opposite direction of the notable run recently "completed". And there you have it; Classics and Scouts.

Next came "PVSRA". This is a method of analysis; Price action, Volume, Support and Resistance Analysis. It cannot tell us how the MMs will move price next - nothing will do that - but, it can give us clues as to what they are up to. Meaning, it can yield clues as to whether the MMs are initiating price action to further their filling of SM orders for longs or for shorts. And that is as close to the "Holy Grail" as we will ever be able to come to. Yet, it still does not predict how the MMs will move price next.

With the coming of "PVSRA" some folks immediately interpreted it as a trade entry method, a trade entry method that is different from the "Classic" trade entry method. What is different from the Classic method here is the "Scout" trade entry method. What "PVSRA" is , is simply a very unique and powerful method of analysis, yielding clues as to what the MMs are up to. It is not intended as a trade entry method. As a result of doing a PVSRA that results in sufficient and non-conflicting clues, a trader would then wait for a corresponding Classic setup with greater assurance, or would wait for what seems an appropriate price level to enter a corresponding Scout trade, also with greater assurance.

So, which is it? It is Classics and Scouts. And anyone is welcome to enroll into the course on PVSRA to learn better how the market really works, so they can get better at deciding what Classic setups to trade and at deciding what price levels (and at what time) there is a true opportunity for a Scout trade.

We (including myself) sometimes refer to a non-Classic trade as a "PVSRA based" trade. This is not intended to assign "PVSRA" as a trade entry method. The "Scout" is the trade entry method, whether mentioned or not. PVSRA is always just a method of analysis of what is going on in the market.

Remember, the basic workings of the market involves the MMs manipulating prices up and down to fill orders of SM (their orders count because there is where the MMs make the most commissions!). To fill those orders the MMs have to work price in such ways as to trick "opposite side money" into the market, which is the liquidity necessary to fill the orders of SM. To put it bluntly, the MMs need to manipulate prices to fill the orders of SM by tricking into the market DM (Dumb Money!). When all is said and done, this is accomplished in different ways: moving prices up and down (ranging), suddenly driving prices own way or the other (stop hunts), and trending prices (comprised of bull and bear swings, each of 100-600 pips MOL). We cannot know how the MMs will move price next. But we can be on the watch for clues as to what they might be attempting to accomplish (PVSRA). From that vantage point, we are in a better position to make good trade decisions; Classics and Scouts.

tah
  • #80,817
  • Edited Apr 26, 2015 1:01am Apr 25, 2015 11:39pm | Edited Apr 26, 2015 1:01am
Quoting traderathome
Which is It? Dear Gals and Guys, I received this PM, one with an important question, suitable to be answered here on the thread....... Hello, just a question, didn't want to post it in the thread. It seems from looking at your trades, that they're based more off "PVSRA" than the classic sonic type setups. I was just thinking to myself I wonder if it would be profitable to take small positions over time as evidence of institutional buying shows up.. high volume at lows, price rejection etc Then I remembered looking at your charts with tens of simultaneous...
Classics, Scouts & PVSRA - The complete circle

Dear Tah,

what an excellent way to round up everything that this thread is all abou!!

I would just like to add, that for some new traders " the light" has to turn on twice. For the last day I was thinking about the first step in the right direction for the new or not so new traders- the first "light that must turn on"-THE PROOF OF DECEIVING PRICE MANIPULATION OF MM's. Everybody must find the proof for themselves and yesterday this first light just turned on for me- I found it in my history of futures trading- FALSE BREAKOUTS!

Example- The price breaks up upper trendline on higher TF, the bias is totaly bullish, the herd is 60-80% long, PA is bullish and the price ALL THE SUDDEN REVERSES SHARPLY!
The first light turning on- WHY ON EARTH WOULD PRICE REVERSE IN SUCH CASE IF NOT FOR THE DECEIVING MM'S TO MAKE PROFITS ON TRADERS DUMB MONEY?!

That was the first light turning on for me, the second one- the one you were talking about- blinks at the moment, but will turn on for sure someday..

Hope it maybe helps somebody new,
and thank you again for your excellent, excellent posts!!

GL to everyone!

Added a chart.. hope it is a good example..

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PVSRA
  • #80,818
  • Apr 26, 2015 7:06am Apr 26, 2015 7:06am
Quoting traderathome
Which is It? Dear Gals and Guys, I received this PM, one with an important question, suitable to be answered here on the thread....... Hello, just a question, didn't want to post it in the thread. It seems from looking at your trades, that they're based more off "PVSRA" than the classic sonic type setups. I was just thinking to myself I wonder if it would be profitable to take small positions over time as evidence of institutional buying shows up.. high volume at lows, price rejection etc Then I remembered looking at your charts with tens of simultaneous...
TAH.

I think it would be a good idea to put this post back on page 1 for all newcomers. It would definitely decreased the number of newbie questions.

Marijan
  • #80,819
  • Apr 26, 2015 8:38am Apr 26, 2015 8:38am
Hey guys.

Take a look, here is my bias for Monday:

AUDUSD: short
EURJPY: short
EURUSD: short
GBPUSD: short
USDCAD: long
USDCHF: long
USDJPY: short

Now, I know I am both long and short on dollar, but doesnt mean I will execute both orders at the same time. I am merely showing what I will be looking for on Monday ( M15 chart and classic setup in agreement with my H1 bias)

Marijan
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  • #80,820
  • Apr 26, 2015 1:36pm Apr 26, 2015 1:36pm
Few analysis for the further week: (not a recommendation‏)

AUD/JPY
i think MM's are bearish on this pair.
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GBP/JPY- also think that MM's are bears.

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AUD/NZD- MM's Bears..
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USD/CAD- MM's Bulls..
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