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EURUSD

  • #984,521
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:38am Apr 24, 2015 3:38am
Quoting Nfp
wtf is going on!! large block order keep coming and back off... today is friday....waiting for tomoorow evening US EST .we got a party! olaalal olaalala
spoofing..
  • #984,522
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:40am Apr 24, 2015 3:40am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Looking at the BNP for Germany it was declining from 2007 under the finacial crisis with the eurosone. Before 2007 it was growt for all countries due to among other factors strong housing market. The strong euro in 2008 got Germany into ressesion with the eurosone 2009/2010 the euro declined and with the low interest rate Germany came out of the ressesion but as we can see later again espesially in 2013/2014 Germany started to get problems again because of too strong euro and the optimismen diappeared.
It's two sided for Germany. It exports mainly to EU countries and it needs a strong currency to keep trade balance high for its imports from outside EZ. Then it needs a lower currency for its exports outside EZ. Don't be surprised if you hear in the news in the future that the whole EZ debt problem was devised by the Germans in order to introduce a 2nd cheaper inflated Euro for the debt ridden countries, which Germany is also going to use for its exports.
  • #984,523
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:41am Apr 24, 2015 3:41am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Ok i wont argue no more, i ll just conclude on my part that you are explaining things from wrong end. 2008 recesion in Germany had nothing to do with currency, nor had 2009-10 recesion pullback. There were structural things that went into phase.
It was many factors in 2008 that went wrong but the strong euro were one of the problems.
  • #984,524
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:44am Apr 24, 2015 3:44am
Quoting Analog
{quote} Do you trade the tick charts as Volman does Rusty? I use some similar techniques to Volman but trade the 5 minute chart. I'm more comfortable and much more profitable scalping the Euro. Swing trading is for stocks imho.
ya 70 tick. But i also use higher tf to identify trend. The 70 is just for timing.
A man is what he thinks about all day long. - Ralph Waldo Emerson
  • #984,525
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:44am Apr 24, 2015 3:44am
Bears are here, bear target level 855. Will look for short if retests high.
  • #984,526
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:45am Apr 24, 2015 3:45am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} It's two sided for Germany. It exports mainly to EU countries and it needs a strong currency to keep trade balance high for its imports from outside EZ. Then it needs a lower currency for its exports outside EZ. Don't be surprised if you hear in the news in the future that the whole EZ debt problem was devised by the Germans in order to introduce a 2nd cheaper inflated Euro for the debt ridden countries, which Germany is also going to use for its exports.
Agree with you as Germany is also a big importer but we have the same in Noway a country that imports more than we eksport and our economy is depening of a weak currency
  • #984,527
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:47am Apr 24, 2015 3:47am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Agree with you as Germany is also a big importer but we have the same in Noway a country that imports more than we eksport and our economy is depening of a weak currency
Norway you said? I thought you had CRUDE OIL...
  • #984,528
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:50am Apr 24, 2015 3:50am
Quoting MikiFX
{quote} Norway you said? I thought you had CRUDE OIL...
We have but we import more than we eksport but the only mantra we have is low currency. We can follow the euro/USD and look how it follow Germanys economy.

I think Switzerland will start with QE also soon
  • #984,529
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:50am Apr 24, 2015 3:50am
Quoting tankokjian
{quote} losing is part of winning. lets see if greece fucking exit.
Greece may default but chances of Grexit is very less.
Losers Hope, Winners Believe
  • #984,530
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:51am Apr 24, 2015 3:51am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} We have but we import more than we eksport but the only mantra we have is low currency
When was the last time you saw your Trade Balance??
  • #984,531
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:51am Apr 24, 2015 3:51am
Quoting Dano12
Back EUR USD to self-level on which the US ended trading yesterday

START
  • #984,532
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:52am Apr 24, 2015 3:52am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Ok, show me the research that shows 97% are failures. Not simulations or theories I want to see "k" number of traders opened an account, and "k" number of traders failed. I want to see it from a broker, or from someone that has the hard numbers. There isn't even a time frame linked with the 97% bullshit statement. 97% of traders fail once in their lifetime of trading - OK. 97% of traders will fail one time or another - OK. 97% traders fail within 2 years of trading - OK. 97% of traders fail. - NEGATIVE. If you try again? Are you a failure?...
If you want to see the number of traders opening accounts, being successful or never trading again you can try to convince a broker to publish them. Or join one as a CFO.

Alternatively take a simple model: One broker, 60:40 profitable/unprofitable traders in each period. Lets start with 10 traders:
In period one you start with ten traders, 6 are profitable, 4 are not. At the end of the period those who are not profitable disappear. In period two, assuming that the number of traders the broker has remains 10 (4 new customers), and still having a 60:40 ratio you end up with 14 traders altogether (four died in the first period). In the second one, 60:40, four new disappears. In the third period, again assuming the 60:40 ratio 4 new customers must appear...and at the end you have 18 traders in total. (18 who ever started an acc).

In period N, you have 6 successful traders, and 6+4*n traders altogether (this includes those who disappeared and those successfully trading). The proportion of successful traders to all traders is 6 / (6+4*n). As n goes to infinity, this term converges to 0. For example after 50 periods, the percentage of successful traders is 6/(6+4*50), which is 2.91%. If you think of periods as quarters, 50 periods is about 12 years, which is pretty much the beginning of retail trading and pretty close to the number you are not willing to accept. There is no need for research this is high school algebra. BTW, Monte Carlo simulations are perfectly accepted methods...

If you want to make the model more complicated, want to account for 1$ traders, want to account for successful traders 'making it' and no longer trading, or traders who at some point were wiped out making a second go at it, the limit calculation remains pretty much the same, feel free to do so. As the gman says, play with it, it will grow.
  • #984,533
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:53am Apr 24, 2015 3:53am
really getting down to fundi fine detail here ,its not going to help imo ,only way fundi is to know whole picture both currencies ,mainly whats in focus ,and thats ever changing ,
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #984,534
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:54am Apr 24, 2015 3:54am
anyone notice this, whenever the percentage of long in FF starts to increase to around 40% and above, the selling starts.
Then when the percentage of longs start to fall to 30% , the buying starts.

I have been seeing this since last week, am not making any trading base on this figure. just something amusing .
  • #984,535
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:56am Apr 24, 2015 3:56am
Quoting MikiFX
{quote} When was the last time you saw your Trade Balance??
You are quite right
  • #984,536
  • Apr 24, 2015 3:59am Apr 24, 2015 3:59am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} You are quite right
  • #984,537
  • Apr 24, 2015 4:02am Apr 24, 2015 4:02am
Quoting buaksam
{quote} If you want to see the number of traders opening accounts, being successful or never trading again you can try to convince a broker to publish them.
Not really... I have some forex trading to do
  • #984,538
  • Apr 24, 2015 4:12am Apr 24, 2015 4:12am
Quoting alayinizAMK
{image}
Should be now. If not i screw this.
  • #984,539
  • Apr 24, 2015 4:13am Apr 24, 2015 4:13am
Quoting Dano12
{quote} START
This is how the morning rallies end, happens every day
  • #984,540
  • Apr 24, 2015 4:23am Apr 24, 2015 4:23am
So what you guys think..? We coming down today?
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