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  • #983,761
  • Apr 22, 2015 2:02pm Apr 22, 2015 2:02pm
Quoting Malchi
{quote} and now what formation is right one
Yeah, I have absolutely no idea ... hard to squeeze out a few pips in this choppy environment.
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #983,762
  • Apr 22, 2015 2:15pm Apr 22, 2015 2:15pm
Quoting san99
{quote} I've seen posts on FF referencing options expiries causing big moves but it didn't seem like a big deal today...
They don't always cause movements, but it's nice to know where they are as they can serve as price barriers until a certain time has passed. Typically, 10:00 AM Eastern is most important as there are a lot that expire at the time. I don't base my trading off of them, but I know where the big contracts are sitting daily and use that if I need to
Don't trade the noise
  • #983,763
  • Apr 22, 2015 2:24pm Apr 22, 2015 2:24pm
Whats the reason USD always falls close to 4 pm?
  • #983,764
  • Apr 22, 2015 2:36pm Apr 22, 2015 2:36pm
SNB today again shook markets up a bit announcing that pension funds will be affected by negative interest rates, I wouldn't be surprised if ECB prepares also some surprise for investors.
  • #983,765
  • Apr 22, 2015 2:38pm Apr 22, 2015 2:38pm
Is it me, but does the Newyork session this week seem to hardly move?
  • #983,766
  • Apr 22, 2015 3:03pm Apr 22, 2015 3:03pm
Hello Hickson and all. I've thrown in the towel with GBP/JPY and joined this thread. Never really traded the euro before. What I know so far is that the ECB head Draghi has initiated a trillion dollar bond buying program. The bench rate is a paltry 0.05%. Also the ECB is charging banks to park extra euros not paying interest. Basically it's been a massive assault to dissuade institutions from buying up the currency and it's worked.

Touches on the H4 the second week of March in the 1.0450 area and again at the 1.05 level last week appear to be some sort of double bottom however quite a few banks have projected the currency to be at parity by 2016. This is due to opposite central bank policies with the U.S. fed expecting to be on track to raising rates and nomalizing monetary policies. So the darling theme of the cheerleaders is USD/JPY to 125 and EUR/USD to 1.02 soon. When the euro was at 1.20 this was very effective. At 1.07 I really do not know what the euro is worth.

Add in the failing Greek drama and at anytime there could be a big move pending up or down.

I hope to benefit from the wisdom of members from one of the biggest threads on FX Factory and hope I can contribute as well.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #983,767
  • Apr 22, 2015 3:12pm Apr 22, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting gabe32
Is it me, but does the Newyork session this week seem to hardly move?
This week has been really short on news event to get things moving so far. Got some news coming overnight in Europe and Unemployment claims tomorrow morning in the US, so that might move things. And of course there is the wildcard hanging over the situation with Greece, so you never know when someone will say something (most likely dumb) to get things going with that.
  • #983,768
  • Apr 22, 2015 3:14pm Apr 22, 2015 3:14pm
Quoting Sid1
Whats the reason USD always falls close to 4 pm?
does it happens 10 times the last 10 sessions?

and even thou you want to know why?
  • #983,769
  • Apr 22, 2015 3:18pm Apr 22, 2015 3:18pm
1st euro trade just gained 10 pips but must go to work now so booked that meager profit and will see you all in London.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #983,770
  • Apr 22, 2015 3:27pm Apr 22, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting IgotAplan
{quote} does it happens 10 times the last 10 sessions? and even thou you want to know why?
Hi, am new to Forex trading, still learning through the forums/books/practice accounts. From what I see following the EURUSD for a week or so, I observed that it has larger up than down movements in the last 30-45 minutes of the session . Wondered if that's a norm because EUR is oversold during the NY session, so some correction towards the end of the day.
  • #983,771
  • Apr 22, 2015 3:54pm Apr 22, 2015 3:54pm
Quoting Temujin
1st euro trade just gained 10 pips but must go to work now so booked that meager profit and will see you all in London.
Hi Temujin. 10 pips are 10 pips! Often, 30-50 pips on EU are a good result. But it will usually not drop 200 pips out of the blue like Geppy does.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #983,772
  • Apr 22, 2015 3:55pm Apr 22, 2015 3:55pm
Quoting Nfp
{quote} >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> i am the person that u hate most in the market.. respect what people share ..although it stupid statement or what ever u call it..u know better than other and in the planet moon dance in the dark
No, I love everyone here on this forum, especially the stupid ones!
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #983,773
  • Apr 22, 2015 3:58pm Apr 22, 2015 3:58pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} No, I love everyone here on this forum, especially the stupid ones!
But like I said yesterday, the most respect I have for Gator, Pay the Limit and a few others, for their continuous effort to give good analysis.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #983,774
  • Apr 22, 2015 4:43pm Apr 22, 2015 4:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} missed 0754 retrace.. sorry. maybe later. doing it latter, then a new low may be a set-up developing for 061x, if that happens.. before 061x a chance to enter s 0754 once more may be in play.
just had a lower roll on day.. but not below 0706 or 0712.. no bounce to 0754 yet if at all, that bounce may be higher if it happens to 0775 ish. not much movement other then a rejection close of -0775 and the support at 0706/12 not giving up a sub close.
that bounce in above post would just be normal pa. not a guaranteed bounce. the closes yesterday is why a test and possible break of 0706/12 was entertained. and now we are below 0775 with closes. not a sure thing, and its not agreeing with Fridays close above 0775. so i do need a - 0706 close to be the next step, that didnt happen today.
0775 is a big # to most, its a monthly #. the larger # here is actually 0712, a 6 year #. had we closed last month below 0712 and 0706, this move would be much more bearish. the same with -0474 better -0471.. some of the last larger #s above 1.0.. since .0461 the low of the year. the ecb has added 80 billion euros to liquidity. and will add an average of 2 billion per day including weekends. the path to higher is getting harder each day. not impossible, just less likely.
next week after mid week is probably the eu's better chance to bounce. if we get a close this week below 0706 or 0712 its probably bearish. bearish up to near 047x.. then a new low closed is needed to continue, or it will bounce..
next week if we mange to be near 0475 or even a new low. and Wednesday is near. it may be best to allow a bounce till it tires to look to short. maybe a possible long of 1/2 the move to from this weeks high to that low at bounce time. of course i dont know if it will bounce.. i suspect it will from a pattern.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #983,775
  • Apr 22, 2015 5:00pm Apr 22, 2015 5:00pm
if we get a bad employment report tomorrow it might be a minor rise.. but I only see bears beers bears
  • #983,776
  • Apr 22, 2015 5:02pm Apr 22, 2015 5:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} of course i dont know if it will bounce.. i suspect it will from a pattern.
i suspect that if this pattern encourages a bounce. a lot of post will be made with numbers above 1.1052. and some will take this opportunity to sell at a higher price.

last h closed below the current cluster low close. sometimes indicative of a b/o. b/o into support 0706/12 is not usually a good trade. unless you have other reasons for a larger trade..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #983,777
  • Apr 22, 2015 5:10pm Apr 22, 2015 5:10pm
I think GU LONG is better option
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #983,778
  • Apr 22, 2015 5:21pm Apr 22, 2015 5:21pm
Quoting snipereye
if we get a bad employment report tomorrow it might be a minor rise.. but I only see bears beers bears
good one!
  • #983,779
  • Apr 22, 2015 5:22pm Apr 22, 2015 5:22pm
Quoting san99
{quote} Thanks. I was expecting a run to 1.08 at around 11:00 am EST but maybe that had already happened earlier in this trading session?? Otherwise didn't seem like there was much effect
Well as I mentioned in my previous post, thursday expiries are the ones that you should take more serious. Especially last thursday of every month end - even more important last thursday of quarter ends. Actually on the days that you have quarter end expiries which by the way happen not only with FX but with equities as well.

Check:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_witching_hour

I would rather stay away from the screens that day - not only that hour. Crazy things happen. Just stay away. It is not worth the trouble.
  • #983,780
  • Apr 22, 2015 5:24pm Apr 22, 2015 5:24pm
Quoting ill_be_back
I think GU LONG is better option
yes maybe 100 pips to collect if correct.
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