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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #28,841
  • Apr 16, 2015 3:05am Apr 16, 2015 3:05am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RT EURUSD 16 April 2015.png Size: 46 KB


Took this a little late. Tweezers candle has formed and entered trade. Market is basically bearish on H4 TF. But also on Daily and weekly TF. Price has broke the TL at 1.0692 level. Round top is forming over four bars and felt a little shaky about that but thought it's ok to trade based on the above analysis.

Currently at 40 odd pips profit.
  • #28,842
  • Apr 20, 2015 2:06am Apr 20, 2015 2:06am
Quoting nic73
{image} Took this a little late. Tweezers candle has formed and entered trade. Market is basically bearish on H4 TF. But also on Daily and weekly TF. Price has broke the TL at 1.0692 level. Round top is forming over four bars and felt a little shaky about that but thought it's ok to trade based on the above analysis. Currently at 40 odd pips profit.

Hi,

I enjoy reading your posts and trademins too that goes without saying!... I have a lot on in my normal life so trading has taken a back seat..... but i enjoy visiting the thread and reading and still learning.

Keep posting....

happy days
Richard
  • #28,843
  • Apr 22, 2015 4:00am Apr 22, 2015 4:00am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} Hi, I enjoy reading your posts and trademins too that goes without saying!... I have a lot on in my normal life so trading has taken a back seat..... but i enjoy visiting the thread and reading and still learning. Keep posting.... happy days Richard
Hello Richard,

It is encouraging that you enjoy reading my posts and Yvon's. I thought you disappeared for quite a long while. Come back and feed this thread if you can. To quite and lonely here.

Nicholas
  • #28,844
  • Apr 22, 2015 4:12am Apr 22, 2015 4:12am
Hi Yvon,

I hope to see you back soon. You know I always have many questions and always find you very helpful.

I traded EURUSD today (22 April 2015) and lost 62 pips. Please tell me what went wrong with my analysis. Thanks

Analysis:
Market about to form a lower high
89sma is above market, therefore bearish mood
Price pull back to 21ema and about to move away at entry candle
Price previous broke through the 1.0692 level twice and could test it again

MACD:
TC about to form
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_h4_22_aPRIL_2015.png Size: 43 KB
  • #28,845
  • Apr 22, 2015 4:24am Apr 22, 2015 4:24am
Hi Nic,

I was thinking about the same trade but there were few things that bothered me and finally I didn't enter.

There was a rezistance level from the low not very far away - the blue rectangle. Furthermore, the MAs were rather too close to each other and finally the price seems to range between the two trendlines and the TC formed right in the middle of the range and also very close to zero on the MACD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4.png Size: 95 KB
  • #28,846
  • Apr 22, 2015 4:26am Apr 22, 2015 4:26am
Yvon,

I have another question on NZDUSD.

Analysis:
Price pull back to 21ema and moving away at entry
89sma => bullish mood
200sma pointing up
MACD: TC / bounce off zero

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_H4_22_APRIL.png Size: 38 KB


The pair looks set for moving up north but I held back trading this because price was at it's recent high on H4 time frame. And might turn around to head south. Tell me your analysis on this pair, would you have traded it?

I have similar question with USDCHF but this pair was on bearish mood instead of bearish.

Thanks
  • #28,847
  • Apr 22, 2015 4:32am Apr 22, 2015 4:32am
I took this one yesterday on GBP, the MACD made ZB as the price didn't manage to stay under the key support 1,49. My thoughts were:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 21_04_15-2200.png Size: 95 KB

  1. The support 1,49 was broken but not for long and the price rebounded from the MA200 (blue) and from the bullish trendl ine
  2. There was strong bullish candle followed by pulback to MA8 (purple)
  3. I set the SL below the 1,49 level approx. 40 pips
  4. TP was set at the previous high/rezistance

I made 36 pips and maybe I could stay in longer, but it was during the night and I wanted to be out before the BoE today.

Could you please tell me what do you think of this trade?

Thanks

  • #28,848
  • Edited 6:52am Apr 22, 2015 6:41am | Edited 6:52am
Quoting medivo
Hi Nic, I was thinking about the same trade but there were few things that bothered me and finally I didn't enter. There was a rezistance level from the low not very far away - the blue rectangle. Furthermore, the MAs were rather too close to each other and finally the price seems to range between the two trendlines and the TC formed right in the middle of the range and also very close to zero on the MACD. {image}
Thanks Medivo. You have raised some good and valid points there.

A correction here: The TC I mentioned looked more like a Break of Zero / BOZ. You reckon so?
And you mentioned that the TC is very close to the MACD. What does a typical TC look like, I mean should it occur at the 0.0.15,0.03 etc level?

Did you see my reply on post 28840 about discussing trade on Skype? I am interested but we have to make a schedule as we might have different time zone. Waiting for your reply.
  • #28,849
  • Apr 22, 2015 7:15am Apr 22, 2015 7:15am
Quoting medivo
I took this one yesterday on GBP, the MACD made ZB as the price didn't manage to stay under the key support 1,49. My thoughts were: {image} The support 1,49 was broken but not for long and the price rebounded from the MA200 (blue) and from the bullish trendl ine There was strong bullish candle followed by pulback to MA8 (purple) I set the SL below the 1,49 level approx. 40 pips TP was set at the previous high/rezistance I made 36 pips and maybe I could stay in longer, but it was during the night and I wanted to be out before the BoE today. Could...
I spotted this and agree with your analysis. However, I would have be cautious because or BRN / Big Round Number 1.5000 was about 60+ pips away. Sometimes, market can turn around before it touch the BRN. If you go back to March, the market tested 1.5000 several times but did not break it. It eventually did so on 17 April but did not stay above it and was tested again yesterday and today and yes it went right through today 22 April.

Be a careful player, I would prefer to look for a pull back to 1.500 and move away before taking the trade. Because chances are price could have have turned around and move south. So to me this trade is a little risky. But this is only how I interpret the chart, I could be wrong. Maybe Yvon could help out. He's a much more experienced trader.

Any insight on my post 28,846?
  • #28,850
  • Apr 22, 2015 8:43am Apr 22, 2015 8:43am
Quoting nic73
{quote} A correction here: The TC I mentioned looked more like a Break of Zero / BOZ. You reckon so? And you mentioned that the TC is very close to the MACD. What does a typical TC look like, I mean should it occur at the 0.0.15,0.03 etc level? Did you see my reply on post 28840 about discussing trade on Skype? I am interested but we have to make a schedule as we might have different time zone. Waiting for your reply.
You are right about the BoZ, it sure loked like one. But Phill somwhere mentioned that when the MACD is near zero, the price may change direction a lot. As I understand it means that there could be problems when the MACD is near zero for some time. Therefore I take only the BoZs that looks for example like the one from March 19 visible on the picture with the blue rectangle I posted. I mean the BoZ in your chart seems to have the right shape but the MACD didn't come from low (only -150) enough for me. Do you know what I mean? Furthermore there is the movement in the triangle of the trend lines and as you cen see now, we are stil within it.

But to be honest, I trade this strategy only for a short time so I might be wrong.

As for your comment on my trade on GBPUSD, thank you! It is a good point about the BRN. It was one of the reasons why I set the TP only 36 pips even lower than the top of the last bearish candle was.

And it would be great if we managed to discuss something over the skype, so if you want to, just send me private message with your skype id.
  • #28,851
  • Apr 22, 2015 6:03pm Apr 22, 2015 6:03pm
Quoting nic73
Hi Yvon, I hope to see you back soon. You know I always have many questions and always find you very helpful. I traded EURUSD today (22 April 2015) and lost 62 pips. Please tell me what went wrong with my analysis. Thanks Analysis: Market about to form a lower high 89sma is above market, therefore bearish mood Price pull back to 21ema and about to move away at entry candle Price previous broke through the 1.0692 level twice and could test it again MACD: TC about to form {image}
hi Nic,
I'm not always at the laptop.
but I' ll get back to you about it.

but , I have comments about the EURUSD, which could help here.

there it is: (my view)
EURUSD : on the 4 hrs chart
I did expect the pair making a pullback up but not that high at RT3 making a pull back to the neckline 1. The pair then, by moving back down showed a third peak, or a third RT or third sister at the neckline 1, which support the idea of a possible move further down; which happened. One could placed order as per the rules (RT) and get profits from them.
But there is another smaller RT maybe on the making, as well as a new TC which again would support a move down, if it realizes.
Now the pair is standing below the 200, 89, 21, which are getting flat. I see Flat moving average mean also a possibility of price moving both side of it.

The EURUSD is standing in a fanon, right in the middle of a 500 pips consolidation. If it breaks down, below the support at around 1.0550 it could reach parity. Which configuration could bring the price at 1.0550 level? It could possibly be the projected range done by the last two RT.

the projected range is from HS: taken from the neckline. In the pink circle: just as per the rules a 21 ema break, a pull back and a move away.
the "strong candle" just confirmed a break from the neckline 1.
I am still shewing short positions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 150421EURUSD.png Size: 140 KB
Yvon
  • #28,852
  • Apr 22, 2015 6:26pm Apr 22, 2015 6:26pm
Quoting nic73
Hi Yvon, I hope to see you back soon. You know I always have many questions and always find you very helpful. I traded EURUSD today (22 April 2015) and lost 62 pips. Please tell me what went wrong with my analysis. Thanks Analysis: Market about to form a lower high 89sma is above market, therefore bearish mood Price pull back to 21ema and about to move away at entry candle Price previous broke through the 1.0692 level twice and could test it again MACD: TC about to form {image}
You probably have seen the possible RT done on the macd, expecting a move down. but one point is the flat moving averages, which represent a posibilitie that price moving both side of them. And the TC on the macd quite a small signal, very close to zero line.
As an example now(see my chart) the pair is making also a possible TC which I would not move yet on it, still embryonic at my view( look on my chart post 28851)

thanks for asking me,
Yvon
  • #28,853
  • Edited 9:06pm Apr 22, 2015 7:43pm | Edited 9:06pm
Quoting nic73
Yvon, I have another question on NZDUSD. Analysis: Price pull back to 21ema and moving away at entry 89sma => bullish mood 200sma pointing up MACD: TC / bounce off zero {image} The pair looks set for moving up north but I held back trading this because price was at it's recent high on H4 time frame. And might turn around to head south. Tell me your analysis on this pair, would you have traded it? I have similar question with USDCHF but this pair was on bearish mood instead of bearish. Thanks
hi Nic,
There are different ways to look at a chart. My chart has a longer history when I consider interest in a pair. I prefer them like that. As example I have put you chart in a little rectangle in my chart.
So at first, price at the time you took the trade, I guess there was some room to take a trade there with an expected range of about 77pips as per the ATR and then, maybe getting a bit higher then the price would have reached the upper trend of the channel.(my channel)as well as the 200 sma on the daily. So some traders would have taken the opportunity there and made profitand why not!
But I am a bit slow to analyse, this is why I love when there are wealthy RT or strong HS, so Ill have time to see the bouncing on the 21ema, and Id have time to see consolidation( which the strategy is to buy at bottom and sell at the top), then take look at history and macd momentum.

In this particular case, I don't think I had taken the trade. Sure what fills a trade per the strategy is ok. But , my view would put weight on the macd expression. In the strength of the macd there is a difference: while there is a consolidation in candles expression, the macd shows strength on half of the consolidation only as well as a divergence (see yellow down trend line on the macd tops)+ there is a barrier done by a larger consolidation just above, that make another point there. So considering the view, obstacles for a good range there would be like limited to me and I would just wait a better opportunity for a larger range.
But that's just my view. What one would see on a chart, someone would see it differently. And that's the beauty of trading. Don't try to do exactly as I do, or what another one does, but by sticking to the strategy, progression is a sure fact, if you stick to the minding result of the strategy.
When price is bouncing on the 21ema, and one is able to see that, he or she is already in progress, in the right path.
While I am writing, the EURUSD is trying to form a TC down there, Beautiful isn't it?

And the NZDUSD showing a break down, beautiful!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 150422NZDUSD.png Size: 137 KB
Yvon
  • #28,854
  • Apr 23, 2015 1:36am Apr 23, 2015 1:36am
Quoting medivo
{quote} You are right about the BoZ, it sure loked like one. But Phill somwhere mentioned that when the MACD is near zero, the price may change direction a lot. As I understand it means that there could be problems when the MACD is near zero for some time. Therefore I take only the BoZs that looks for example like the one from March 19 visible on the picture with the blue rectangle I posted. I mean the BoZ in your chart seems to have the right shape but the MACD didn't come from low (only -150) enough for me. Do you know what I mean? Furthermore...
I am not on Skype and don't have any chat software download in my PC. Give a bit of time to set up the account. Will get back to you soon.
  • #28,855
  • Apr 23, 2015 2:53am Apr 23, 2015 2:53am
Quoting nic73
{quote} I am not on Skype and don't have any chat software download in my PC. Give a bit of time to set up the account. Will get back to you soon.
Ok, no problem. We can even use email, if you want.
  • #28,856
  • Apr 23, 2015 3:02am Apr 23, 2015 3:02am
Quoting medivo
{quote} Ok, no problem. We can even use email, if you want.
Hi, please check your inbox, I just sent you my skype account user. Thanks
  • #28,857
  • Apr 23, 2015 3:19am Apr 23, 2015 3:19am
GBPUSD 23 April 2015; Counter Trend

Testing out my understanding on counter trend trading on demo account. I have here in the chart:
Divergence (market up, MACD down)
Price reversing at time of trading
89sma below the market (therefore, Counter trend)

Currently at a profit of 34pips. Price was almost there at 21ema (take profit) but did not quite touch it to close off. But I am currently happy with what I have (considering this is a counter trend trading) and closed off the trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_23_April_2015_CounterTrend.png Size: 40 KB
  • #28,858
  • Apr 23, 2015 5:13am Apr 23, 2015 5:13am
Quoting trademin
{quote} You probably have seen the possible RT done on the macd, expecting a move down. but one point is the flat moving averages, which represent a posibilitie that price moving both side of them. And the TC on the macd quite a small signal, very close to zero line. As an example now(see my chart) the pair is making also a possible TC which I would not move yet on it, still embryonic at my view( look on my chart post 28851) thanks for asking me,
Thanks Yvon. I trust that you are a very experience trader and you always take time to reply questions, really grateful for that.

I certainly find it a little difficult to digest your input because I am not able to see the chart as you see it, like how did you identify that there was going to be a pull back to neckline, price flatting out. This is due to mt lack of experience.

But your reply has generated some ideals on how I should look at the chart. I have the same neckline as you (below and above). a triangle is forming and also narrowing. Perhaps it is not time to enter trade when the triangle get narrower as price could be going sideways at the same time the market deciding to go up or down. In this case, since the 89sma is still above the market, chances is that the market will continue it's bearish mood. But we never know until the time comes. My anticipation is that the price be allowed to break the neckline and when it does so, this could be a strong move with many pips to take. This is only my opinion. I could be wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_23_April_Anticipation.png Size: 47 KB

I am struggling to read charts to determine when the market is ranging, trending; when to trade, when to hold like in the case of EURUSD. I make a lot of losses as a result. How can I improve on this?
  • #28,859
  • Apr 23, 2015 6:06am Apr 23, 2015 6:06am
EURUSD:
What a surprise this morning to see the pair moving back up about 85 pips(that much!) while globally the Europeans news are in red ?!
On the 4hrs chart there was a nice 21 ema break, pull back and a start of moving away down…we should see a red candle this morning
I have some difficulties to see the EURUSD direction this morning. Is there more surprise to come?
What will happen next if there is good news this morning about unemployment claims?
Is’it a rare occasion on a rainy day I could not get wet…(!?!)
Major’s pairs involving the USD are in red while the EURUSD are in green!!!
Technically, moving averages are flat and price could go both sides of them!-will it go further?
Yvon
  • #28,860
  • Apr 23, 2015 6:54am Apr 23, 2015 6:54am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Thanks Yvon. I trust that you are a very experience trader and you always take time to reply questions, really grateful for that. I certainly find it a little difficult to digest your input because I am not able to see the chart as you see it, like how did you identify that there was going to be a pull back to neckline, price flatting out. This is due to mt lack of experience. But your reply has generated some ideals on how I should look at the chart. I have the same neckline as you (below and above). a triangle is forming and also narrowing....
I agree with your opinion.

A pull back is usually anticipated after a consolidation break, but I was not anticipating a pull back that high. Since there was that strong candle, it looks like traders anticipated that move down( a move below consolidation there)recognizing that price broke a barrier there, so a pull back to it was in the cards, but moved higher instead!

Originally I had traced an up trend line (neckline 1), but I was expecting only a move back to about 1.07330(on my chart), which is about half of consolidation there.
Yvon
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