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  • #982,941
  • Apr 20, 2015 9:54am Apr 20, 2015 9:54am
My reading with some imagination thrown in: Unless Greece exits (or stays for sure) pair will remain range-bound between 1.10 and 1.05 with range tightening as more time goes into a symmetric triangle formation. Greek exits pair breaks 1.10. Greek stays pair breaks 1.05. All my short term trading is dependent on this broad premise.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #982,942
  • Apr 20, 2015 9:54am Apr 20, 2015 9:54am
Quoting Keyser_Soze
{quote} If you want to calculate true volume you need the volume transacted at the bid or ask and the average trade size. Neither of which are available to you in spot FX. It is inconsequential knowing that price changes (which is all tick volume shows you) without knowing the size of trades behind it. Tick volume is really just a different way of illustrating a range bar. It has little to do with actual volume. Looking at tick moves is just basic PA. Claiming you can see "institutional re positioning" with it...... Lol,...

That is simply not right. You can use Tick-volume as proxy for true volume. Different studies have shown, that tick volume as proxy for real volume has an accuracy of far more than 80%.

Prerequisite for this is, that you have a bigger broker with many active traders. So small broker or bucket shops are a no go.

When you use Broker, who also have institutionals as customers, well then you have also the data of their transactions. This is, for example the case with Dukascopy. Dukascopy also give the volume of their customers in their SWFX liquidity pool


If one can have transacted volume, it would be a plus, but per the studies it is not necessary.

Using tick volume/real volume is all about the question what you are doing with this data. One has to know one means.

But hey, it is your money. You can ignore it, or use it to your advantage.
  • #982,943
  • Apr 20, 2015 9:56am Apr 20, 2015 9:56am
Quoting taru
{quote} {image}

I have the data of 3 bigger brokers. No of this three shows a spike in activity as your broker did. Which broker are you using?
  • #982,944
  • Apr 20, 2015 9:57am Apr 20, 2015 9:57am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} I think so. Techs said it should have gone up to about 880-910
Perhaps 1.084x is enough for a LL on the Daily
  • #982,945
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:06am Apr 20, 2015 10:06am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I have the data of 3 bigger brokers. No of this three shows a spike in activity as your broker did. Which broker are you using?
Global Prime.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #982,946
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:09am Apr 20, 2015 10:09am
The upward channel held but there was an 'inside' London Open. Usually that's where a swing happens.
Most times they take it back up to that area at least once the same day or next, and some times the spike
up above it into the previous days range and then reverse.
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  • #982,947
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:09am Apr 20, 2015 10:09am
Quoting MissPips
Okay, another question since we can't know if Greece will or will not leave. If they do leave will it be: a) Bad for the Euro short and long term? b) Bad for the Euro short term and good for it long term? c) Good for the Euro long and short term? Reasons?
markets give a shit abt greece. they are more worried abt the contagion effect arising due to greece. finland has asked for restructuring and so has spain
  • #982,948
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:13am Apr 20, 2015 10:13am
Quoting hathor
(Justin) Long (Justfor) Fun {image}
Set to Entry + Comission
He-he
Targets are between 1.13-1.19
He-he
Targets are just to provoke 'short kings'.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #982,949
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:17am Apr 20, 2015 10:17am
763 short SL few.
  • #982,950
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:20am Apr 20, 2015 10:20am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} markets give a shit abt greece. they are more worried abt the contagion effect arising due to greece. finland has asked for restructuring and so has spain
Illusionists always need something to distract the crowd from what actually happening in the name of the 'miracle'.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #982,951
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:20am Apr 20, 2015 10:20am
Greece orders raid on government coffers as cash dwindles

Government issues a decree forcing all state bodies to transfer funds to the central bank

By Mehreen Khan
3:30PM BST 20 Apr 2015


The Greek government has ordered a mandatory transfer of cash reserves from state-owned enterprises to its central bank, in a desperate bid to gather enough cash to remain solvent.
Citing "extremely urgent and unforeseen needs”, the government issued the decree which will also apply to local government bodies.
The move comes as Athens' cash crisis degenerates with every passing day. Even the most conservative estimates calculate the government's coffers will run dry in a matter of weeks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...arget-IMF.html
  • #982,952
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:20am Apr 20, 2015 10:20am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} That is simply not right. You can use Tick-volume as proxy for true volume. Different studies have shown, that tick volume as proxy for real volume has an accuracy of far more than 80%. Prerequisite for this is, that you have a bigger broker with many active traders. So small broker or bucket shops are a no go. When you use Broker, who also have institutionals as customers, well then you have also the data of their transactions. This is, for example the case with Dukascopy. Dukascopy also give the volume of their customers in their SWFX...

and btw: FXCM now also offers real transacted volume

http://www.fxcmapps.com/trading-stat...ns-indicators/
  • #982,953
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:21am Apr 20, 2015 10:21am
yea thats what I have ,rough channel ,low tf


Quoting MissPips
The upward channel held but there was an 'inside' London Open. Usually that's where a swing happens. Most times they take it back up to that area at least once the same day or next, and some times the spike up above it into the previous days range and then reverse. {image}
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #982,954
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:22am Apr 20, 2015 10:22am
Quoting taru
{quote} Global Prime.

hmm, do not know them. Also did not find any data about their daily transacted volume.

Have you data?
  • #982,955
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:23am Apr 20, 2015 10:23am
ok time for some bearish engulfing
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #982,956
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:31am Apr 20, 2015 10:31am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} That is simply not right. You can use Tick-volume as proxy for true volume. Different studies have shown, that tick volume as proxy for real volume has an accuracy of far more than 80%. Prerequisite for this is, that you have a bigger broker with many active traders. So small broker or bucket shops are a no go. When you use Broker, who also have institutionals as customers, well then you have also the data of their transactions. This is, for example the case with Dukascopy. Dukascopy also give the volume of their customers in their SWFX...

FXCM

EU

15min Data

Real volume vs. Real Trasactions vs. Tick volume


look, how nice they correlate


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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learn to use price/volume profiles


that is far more interesting than watching simply volume

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  • #982,957
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:33am Apr 20, 2015 10:33am
Quoting janpec1000
763 short SL few.
Lets see if it has legs, will move BE SL soon. 740 should held structurally, i see attack higher for 780 likely.
http://prntscr.com/6w2ns6
  • #982,958
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:35am Apr 20, 2015 10:35am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Nice, AU is a runaway train giving temp support to EU
Yer was one of those enjoyable fast movers, didn't see that release coming.... UCad B.E.+ but sold some on the way down too, still in range of indecision.

Bought EJ 5m Flag/C&H but looks like could be wrong, EU broke downside
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #982,959
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:36am Apr 20, 2015 10:36am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} That is simply not right. You can use Tick-volume as proxy for true volume. Different studies have shown, that tick volume as proxy for real volume has an accuracy of far more than 80%. Prerequisite for this is, that you have a bigger broker with many active traders. So small broker or bucket shops are a no go. When you use Broker, who also have institutionals as customers, well then you have also the data of their transactions. This is, for example the case with Dukascopy. Dukascopy also give the volume of their...
Would you happen to have a link to any of those studies? Would like to read them
  • #982,960
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:38am Apr 20, 2015 10:38am
I wonder how all those muppets who went long here cause Draghi said it's pointless faired today.

Really no one listens here, all have their own bias and context of things when the context is completely different.
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