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  • #982,701
  • Apr 19, 2015 6:04pm Apr 19, 2015 6:04pm
Quoting plotinus82
{quote} TBH Greek Default = Dax negative = Lower US yields = Euro positive
Actually with such huge risk off environment, you should not relay much on the negative relationship between DAX and euro. It might turn around. I am not defending my ideas, it might be wrong, just thinking.
  • #982,702
  • Apr 19, 2015 6:05pm Apr 19, 2015 6:05pm
Quoting TataFara
{quote} Actually with such huge risk off environment, you should not relay much on the negative relationship between DAX and euro. It might turn around. I am not defending my ideas, it might be wrong, just thinking.
That's a fair assessment, one I dont disagree with. You will never ever know how the euro will react with a greek default or grexit. Probably lower then higher is my guess.

Euro might not become such a safe funder too if people are pulling out of it
  • #982,703
  • Apr 19, 2015 6:13pm Apr 19, 2015 6:13pm
Quoting plotinus82
{quote} TBH Greek Default = Dax negative = Lower US yields = Euro positive
What is the assumption for that correlation .... How about bunds yields ....
  • #982,704
  • Apr 19, 2015 6:18pm Apr 19, 2015 6:18pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} What is the assumption for that correlation .... How about bunds yields ....
Do bund yields matter anymore on EUR USD ?
  • #982,705
  • Apr 19, 2015 6:18pm Apr 19, 2015 6:18pm
Hey guys,

Been lurking and posting very infrequently for a few years. Anyhoo I have a week off from work and will trading pretty much 24/7 till Friday, so I'll post a few times this week as I intend to trade the EUR this week.

I'm short biased this week on the euro as price action is telling me that we may see parity sometime in the next while. Its trying for a proper correction off 1.05ish, but seems to be hitting resistance every time it goes up. A lot of choppy action with barely higher highs. This combined with the disaster Greece situation should send the EUR lower. Greece I believe has 2 debt repayments in May and it looks as though this may not come to fruition and I think this will price itself much sooner. Its rare for a price to get this close to a major number like parity and not hit it, but as always I will be flexible and make a play based on what I see.

I expect nothing too significant this week as there is not a lot of normal economic news. I shorted at the open and am currently sitting on a nice few pips. Currently looking at cashing it at around 1.077ish before a bounce. I will be looking for a price to sell upward movement.

I will be staring at this thing every waking moment from now til Friday close lol. The life, or lack thereof of a trader.

Gl folks.
  • #982,706
  • Apr 19, 2015 6:47pm Apr 19, 2015 6:47pm
Quoting maldegnegi
Trend is an interesting terminology, it is like the saying " a skirt shows everything except what you really want to see". Some say trend is bearish, yes indeed it has been for the past year, what about for the past 2-3-4-5- or "8" years. What would you then see? I doubt many here can trade a trend for that long however, we may be very close to a medium term bottom. Does anyone really want to short here to aim for parity? Interesting times we are living in.
I give you a one million dollar advise, absolutely free.

Not only the trend, but all trading myths are bullshit. Bullshit not because they are not true, but how practical it is to use them in actual trading. You are right in saying how many trend believers will short here? But once it gets to 0.8000 they will be firmer trend believers and would promise themselves that next time they would follow the trend. Yet again, it will be either too high or too low a price to follow the trend or a Higher High or Lower Low was made either as an spike or in less reliable market condition. If they keep cutting their losses, will never be able to even see a decent profit unless lucky enough to get a fill at the right moment and fortunate enough to be there in the market at that time. People who think market is not random, get caught in its randomness. People who swing trade, lose several months' profit in just one 12 minute move. This is why trading myths are bullshit. They fascinate you by looking at historical chart and provide something good to speak about in a classroom. Practical trading is totally different.

The advise is, trade as if this market is completely random for price, spread, speed, condition, session, etc. Believe that it can do anything at any time that could be either good or bad for you. If you have a workable system based on this market philosophy nothing can beat you even if this market is not random and all trading myths are right.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #982,707
  • Apr 19, 2015 6:53pm Apr 19, 2015 6:53pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I give you a one million dollar advise, absolutely free. Not only the trend, but all trading myths are bullshit. Bullshit not because they are not true, but how practical it is to use them in actual trading. You are right in saying how many trend believers will short here? But once it gets to 0.8000 they will be firmer trend believers and would promise themselves that next time they would follow the trend. Yet again, it will be either too high or too low a price to follow the trend or a Higher High or Lower Low was made either as an spike...
Some of the best things in life are free. Very solid piece of advice here!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #982,708
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:00pm Apr 19, 2015 7:00pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I give you a one million dollar advise, absolutely free. Not only the trend, but all trading myths are bullshit. Bullshit not because they are not true, but how practical it is to use them in actual trading. You are right in saying how many trend believers will short here? But once it gets to 0.8000 they will be firmer trend believers and would promise themselves that next time they would follow the trend. Yet again, it will be either too high or too low a price to follow the trend or a Higher High or Lower Low was made either as an spike...
+1
  • #982,709
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:03pm Apr 19, 2015 7:03pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Some of the best things in life are free. Very solid piece of advice here!
You know why many short-term traders fail? They know that in roulette probability of getting a win is 1/37 and reward is 35/1 and they play accordingly. The probability of getting a win in trading may be 1/15 and reward could be 70/1, but they don't set the bets accordingly. This is as simple as that.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #982,710
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:33pm Apr 19, 2015 7:33pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I give you a one million dollar advise, absolutely free. Not only the trend, but all trading myths are bullshit. Bullshit not because they are not true, but how practical it is to use them in actual trading. You are right in saying how many trend believers will short here? But once it gets to 0.8000 they will be firmer trend believers and would promise themselves that next time they would follow the trend. Yet again, it will be either too high or too low a price to follow the trend or a Higher High or Lower Low was made either as an spike...
".. the market does whatever the F%%% it wants??... "

haha
  • #982,711
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:36pm Apr 19, 2015 7:36pm
Quoting PixeLM
{quote} ".. the market does whatever the F%%% it wants??... " haha
No. Its the traders who do whatever the F%%% they want. Market never goes up or down and announces well in advance "My friends, I am going 23 pips higher and on NFP I will be first going 72 pips down and then 172 pips up".

Can you tell me what this shit is going to do until London Open?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #982,712
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:48pm Apr 19, 2015 7:48pm
I can't figure out what the hell you are talking about. I am literally baffled as to what you saying exactly. Are you able to to quantify what your argument is exactly, because I don't seem to to see anyone arguing with you.

Very bizarre.

Sorry what is this shit going to do before the london open? Not much lol. Basic range small range most likely.

I'm still short market open, although I expect it to be taken out. As I have said I will be looking to short any highs I see at this point.
  • #982,713
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:55pm Apr 19, 2015 7:55pm
Quoting Becel
I can't figure out what the hell you are talking about. I am literally baffled as to what you saying exactly. Are you able to to quantify what your argument is exactly, because I don't seem to to see anyone arguing with you. Very bizarre. Sorry what is this shit going to do before the london open? Not much lol. Basic range small range most likely.
You may like to press the quote button at the top of the post that you want to reply.
Who you are talking to?

I think you are talking to me.

My bizarre point is that you never know what this market is going to do next in a short-run. If you disagree with it, give me the high and low for from now to London Open or any one else for that matter.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #982,714
  • Apr 19, 2015 8:00pm Apr 19, 2015 8:00pm
Greece Flashes Warning Signals About Its Debt


By LANDON THOMAS Jr.APRIL 19, 2015
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/20/bu...debt.html?_r=0
  • #982,715
  • Apr 19, 2015 8:13pm Apr 19, 2015 8:13pm
Quoting johnsmart
Greece Flashes Warning Signals About Its Debt By LANDON THOMAS Jr.APRIL 19, 2015 http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/20/bu...debt.html?_r=0
Here is the Greek GDP in Billion USD. This can be corrected and I have high hopes for Greece, if they are faithful and willing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled1.jpg Size: 51 KB
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #982,716
  • Apr 19, 2015 8:15pm Apr 19, 2015 8:15pm
Greece Risks Losing Future Bailout Funds
APRIL 19, 2015 7:45 AM ET
http://www.npr.org/2015/04/19/400750...-bailout-funds
  • #982,717
  • Apr 19, 2015 8:21pm Apr 19, 2015 8:21pm
Quoting johnsmart
Greece Risks Losing Future Bailout Funds APRIL 19, 2015 7:45 AM ET http://www.npr.org/2015/04/19/400750...-bailout-funds
Greece's creditors were eyeing at some of their islands few years ago. All Greece wants is better terms ..................... and they will get it.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #982,718
  • Apr 19, 2015 8:23pm Apr 19, 2015 8:23pm
Hi chick,

I apologize for my strange post. Yes, I agree lol in the world of fx trading things can go crazy. But you know Sunday night and little volume I believe we will see a small range.

I sold at market open hoping to grab a few points, but I see it took me out. Ah well. I have reopened my trade, so we will see.

Price is all about deception though, but if you understand it how it works you can make money.
  • #982,719
  • Apr 19, 2015 8:31pm Apr 19, 2015 8:31pm
Quoting Becel
Hi chick, I apologize for my strange post. Yes, I agree lol in the world of fx trading things can go crazy. But you know Sunday night and little volume I believe we will see a small range. I sold at market open hoping to grab a few points, but I see it took me out. Ah well. I have reopened my trade, so we will see. Price is all about deception though, but if you understand it how it works you can make money.
Becel, You have finished your post quota for the year. Enjoy your week off from work. Wish I wasn't so addicted to FF. I don't know how you can keep yourself away from these threads for so long.

It's not you, it was that other post that was strange, those two ?? and then hahah. So unprofessional and annoying not even a good sense of humor.

It is very difficult to get few bucks out of this market. There are so many factors and so much deception that sometimes I remain out for weeks. Even if you get some idea how it works, it does not move when you are there. It happens most of the time with me. All good setups develop when I am not there. For past few months, I am trying pending orders. Non of them has got hit yet. LOL.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #982,720
  • Apr 19, 2015 8:39pm Apr 19, 2015 8:39pm
I think market has decided to leave 1.0850 untouched for the time being. I am looking down now.
The Thief of Wall Street
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