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USD/CAD

  • #7,521
  • Apr 19, 2015 1:13pm Apr 19, 2015 1:13pm
my strategy in usd cad is sell on rallies. i expect this to go even lower
Reaction is better than Prediction
  • #7,522
  • Apr 19, 2015 1:56pm Apr 19, 2015 1:56pm
Quoting mikajap
my strategy in usd cad is sell on rallies. i expect this to go even lower
if we are now 4, wait for 5
  • #7,523
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:32pm Apr 19, 2015 2:32pm
Everyone looking for same thing, mid week bearish price action candle around 1.2375

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #7,524
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:48pm Apr 19, 2015 2:48pm
We should trade CAD against the strongest pair if we see the down trend continues; NZD is strong now and has CPI news soon, NZD-CAD day chart looks good

Here are the Index charts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #7,525
  • Apr 19, 2015 3:04pm Apr 19, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I agree MJB Looking for another opertunity to hummer shorts {image}
Green Zone.
  • #7,526
  • Apr 19, 2015 3:15pm Apr 19, 2015 3:15pm
lets see how this will work out not so sure about that one
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  • #7,527
  • Apr 19, 2015 3:56pm Apr 19, 2015 3:56pm
On the H4 chart...
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  • #7,528
  • Apr 19, 2015 6:33pm Apr 19, 2015 6:33pm
Nothing is more annoying then Monday Asia trying to make a statement by clueless selling
I learned not to trust it.
Lets see how LONDON NY reacts.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #7,529
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:16pm Apr 19, 2015 7:16pm
Quoting Davit
Nothing is more annoying then Monday Asia trying to make a statement by clueless selling I learned not to trust it. Lets see how LONDON NY reacts.
Why is it clueless selling?...U.S. numbers stink and the market is taking the June rate hike off the table, all the while Canada numbers are picking up and the BOC is speaking very positively. Not to mention, oil has been catching a bid over the last week as well. Profit was taken Friday afternoon on this pair...(if you were looking long, then you should have entered when we were all exiting). All the profit taking on Friday afternoon has given us a 175 pip discount from the low Friday morning. I'm building another short position as we speak....I'd love for it to go back to 1.2400 area so I could get an even better price, however, I'm not expecting it.
Don't trade the noise
  • #7,530
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:32pm Apr 19, 2015 7:32pm
Quoting TTFXHammer
{quote} Why is it clueless selling?...U.S. numbers stink and the market is taking the June rate hike off the table, all the while Canada numbers are picking up and the BOC is speaking very positively. Not to mention, oil has been catching a bid over the last week as well. Profit was taken Friday afternoon on this pair...(if you were looking long, then you should have entered when we were all exiting). All the profit taking on Friday afternoon has given us a 175 pip discount from the low Friday morning. I'm building another short position as we speak....I'd...
ok I am building a long here and glad markets gave me a chance today to go long on usd/cad. this time its headed for 1.30
  • #7,531
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:45pm Apr 19, 2015 7:45pm
Quoting TTFXHammer
{quote} Why is it clueless selling?...U.S. numbers stink and the market is taking the June rate hike off the table, all the while Canada numbers are picking up and the BOC is speaking very positively. Not to mention, oil has been catching a bid over the last week as well. Profit was taken Friday afternoon on this pair...(if you were looking long, then you should have entered when we were all exiting). All the profit taking on Friday afternoon has given us a 175 pip discount from the low Friday morning. I'm building another short position as we speak....I'd...
Thanks for the overview...... after trading for 5years you'll get the meaning of my post otherwise good luck to you.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #7,532
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:58pm Apr 19, 2015 7:58pm
Well, there are two fundamental drivers here in play for USD/CAD at the moment: (1) Greenback strength/weakness; and (2) oil prices.

I have stared at DXY for a bit of time now and can't tell if buyers are going to wade back in at these levels (Friday's close and the week's first Asian session are not good times to gauge this, in my opinion). I had a level a bit lower in mind for DXY as to when buying interest might reappear as gauge of Greenback strength/weakness, but we're not quite there yet; there is some previous resistance around the level we're at currently, but I'm not terribly excited about committing to the statement that "this is the place where buyers will wade back in." So, I'm equivocal on Greenback strength at the moment ... . (However, this is the exact area from which we saw the run-up to 100, albeit before the timing of the FOMC rate hike became somewhat more clear ... .).

But I do think that oil prices are coming up against resistance here ... . With U.S. stockpiles still showing little sign of meaningful abatement, my thinking is that all of the past couple week's run up is oil prices is due to traders speculative assessment of the situation in Yemen; the significance of that will wane in the coming days, and oil prices with it. The concern over the extremely small and poorly equipped Houthi rebels having any effect on the shipping lanes used by oil producers in the area is totally overblown.

My two cents: CAD strength is likely to be fleeting as much as Greenback weakness is, if not more so ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #7,533
  • Edited 8:26pm Apr 19, 2015 7:59pm | Edited 8:26pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks for the overview...... after trading for 5years you'll get the meaning of my post otherwise good luck to you.
I've been trading for more than 5 years....hence the reason I don't try and will a trade. I'm anticipating one more bounce to 1.2300 area so the structure will be complete for a move back down. Profits will be taken at 1.2045 and 1.1992. Could I be wrong?...yes. But my journal says that only happens 21% of the time. Good luck to you as well, my friend
Don't trade the noise
  • #7,534
  • Apr 19, 2015 8:04pm Apr 19, 2015 8:04pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Well, there are two fundamental drivers here in play for USD/CAD at the moment: (1) Greenback strength/weakness; and (2) oil prices. I have stared at DXY for a bit of time now and can't tell if buyers are going to wade back in at these levels (Friday's close and the week's first Asian session are not good times to gauge this, in my opinion). I had a level a bit lower in mind for DXY as to when buying interest might reappear as gauge of Greenback strength/weakness, but we're not quite there yet; there is some previous resistance around the level...
Sorry if that isn't much of a trading idea ... . I guess it's just my feeling that caution might be in order and that, primarily because of where oil prices are, the down trend might easily run out of steam ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #7,535
  • Apr 19, 2015 8:27pm Apr 19, 2015 8:27pm
Day chart
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  • #7,536
  • Apr 20, 2015 2:44am Apr 20, 2015 2:44am
Good morning everyone. Today we have "high impact" news on this pair. Would it be smarter to not have any exposer to the market prior, or would it dropping down to break last week low be a sure thing?
  • #7,537
  • Apr 20, 2015 4:18am Apr 20, 2015 4:18am
https://charts.mql5.com/7/597/usdcad...ts-limited.png

4h
  • #7,538
  • Apr 20, 2015 4:42am Apr 20, 2015 4:42am
Quoting YankeeFan
Good morning everyone. Today we have "high impact" news on this pair. Would it be smarter to not have any exposer to the market prior, or would it dropping down to break last week low be a sure thing?
There is no "sure thing" in the market...but rather high probability based on several factors. With that said, if you're not a seasoned trader, I would wait until after the news
Don't trade the noise
  • #7,539
  • Apr 20, 2015 4:46am Apr 20, 2015 4:46am
what is to retest the broken resistance ?? abc correction
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  • #7,540
  • Apr 20, 2015 5:01am Apr 20, 2015 5:01am
Coupled with the descending trend-channel break of shorter-term, the failure to break 100-day SMA on Daily chart, needless to say the break of 38.2% Fibo of its September 2014 - March 2015 up-move, could fuel the pair's rally towards re-testing 1.2350. However, a break of 1.2270 becomes necessary while a close below 1.2200 could trigger additional decline of the pair.
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