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NZD/USD

  • #9,141
  • Apr 17, 2015 7:51am Apr 17, 2015 7:51am
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Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_H111.gif Size: 172 KB
  • #9,142
  • Edited Apr 18, 2015 4:22pm Apr 17, 2015 4:45pm | Edited Apr 18, 2015 4:22pm
This is another USA election year (multiple of 8 years):
2015:
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2007:
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please also check the Clinton's election year (199x).
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  • #9,143
  • Edited 6:27pm Apr 18, 2015 5:27pm | Edited 6:27pm
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Election news can be a breakdown point, please post some web-links of some election news if possible.
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  • #9,144
  • Apr 19, 2015 11:34am Apr 19, 2015 11:34am
Hi,

Fortunately or unfortunately, I am holding 7 orders of NZDUSD at

http://www.forexfactory.com/prachait/44

Just curious to get recommendation about holding and pair on downward trends.
Kindly suggest |

Thanks
Prachait Saxena
  • #9,145
  • Apr 19, 2015 1:02pm Apr 19, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting prachait
Hi, Fortunately or unfortunately, I am holding 7 orders of NZDUSD at http://www.forexfactory.com/prachait/44 Just curious to get recommendation about holding and pair on downward trends. Kindly suggest | Thanks
If you entered a short at the 73.xxxxx you should be stopped out before it reaches the 77.xxxxx level. Price needs space to breathe, so at higher TF you need larger stops. But...In my opinion around 400 pips is way to much. Normally I use around 100 pips for the stops. I try also not to risk more than 1 percent per trade. You have risked far more than that on these trades.

Also you increased your position, even though the trade went against you. There is a saying for this: when in trouble, double. The meaning of it is not to double your position when going against you. It is a common mistake. Even if you come out of this with a profit, it is bad trading...

I also lost money on the same trade. I re-entered the trade last friday. The pair is at significant resistance. If price breaks the 0.77 level and establishes itself above, I am going to close the position even if not the SL is triggered. Then I was wrong and will have to look for a new opportunity.

My advice to you would be the same. Admit to yourself that you were wrong (no fault in that) and cut the losses. Don`t get emotional about it and try to cling to the position. Learn from it and don`t repeat the mistake again. Get rid of the bad feelings about it and look for new opportunities.

CPI numbers from New Zealand coming in under five hours...
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #9,146
  • Apr 19, 2015 1:37pm Apr 19, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting Decima
{quote} If you entered a short at the 73.xxxxx you should be stopped out before it reaches the 77.xxxxx level. Price needs space to breathe, so at higher TF you need larger stops. But...In my opinion around 400 pips is way to much. Normally I use around 100 pips for the stops. I try also not to risk more than 1 percent per trade. You have risked far more than that on these trades. Also you increased your position, even though the trade went against you. There is a saying for this: when in trouble, double. The meaning of it is not to double your...
Thanks for the support and recommendation.
Kindly define "CPI numbers from New Zealand coming in under five hours..."
Prachait Saxena
  • #9,147
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:01pm Apr 19, 2015 2:01pm
In my views it might be down probability @ 80%

http://i.imgur.com/pWhclz4.png
If you have poor psychology you will struggle
  • #9,148
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:05pm Apr 19, 2015 2:05pm
In my 3 years of experience with this pair, I don't recall even one instance when negative Chinese data over the weekend has caused NU to gap up... Maybe some of the more experienced traders can correct me on this one...
  • #9,149
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:10pm Apr 19, 2015 2:10pm
Maybe this time the NZ data is leaked cause it's already 30 pips up (AU is up 50 pips now). Or the CN data wasn't bad.
  • #9,150
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:19pm Apr 19, 2015 2:19pm
Quoting sakisf
Maybe this time the NZ data is leaked cause it's already 30 pips up (AU is up 50 pips now). Or the CN data wasn't bad.
Already up? where? Market is closed!
If you have poor psychology you will struggle
  • #9,151
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:21pm Apr 19, 2015 2:21pm
up to 0.7715=> down to 0.7695...next?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #9,152
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:31pm Apr 19, 2015 2:31pm
Quoting dr.rackala
{quote} Already up? where? Market is closed!
Check www.xe.com.
  • #9,153
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:57pm Apr 19, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Check www.xe.com.


I have 6 shorts ...
Prachait Saxena
  • #9,154
  • Apr 19, 2015 3:30pm Apr 19, 2015 3:30pm
Quoting prachait
{quote} Thanks for the support and recommendation. Kindly define "CPI numbers from New Zealand coming in under five hours..."
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

This could move the price of the NZDUSD....
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #9,155
  • Apr 19, 2015 5:19pm Apr 19, 2015 5:19pm
NZDUSD seems fairly likely to end up at .7600 this week at some point. Maybe a spike up after news time and then grinding down.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #9,156
  • Apr 19, 2015 5:26pm Apr 19, 2015 5:26pm
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  • #9,157
  • Apr 19, 2015 6:03pm Apr 19, 2015 6:03pm
Cigarette and tobacco prices rose 12 percent in the latest quarter, following an 11 percent rise in excise duty in January. The CPI less cigarettes and tobacco, fell 0.7 percent. The average price of a pack of 25 cigarettes was about $26.40 in the March 2015 quarter, compared with $23.30 in the December 2014 quarter. (efxnews)

26.40??? Are you serious? And I once thought of doing extended holidays there, scratch that plan...
  • #9,158
  • Apr 19, 2015 6:08pm Apr 19, 2015 6:08pm
Quoting sakisf
Cigarette and tobacco prices rose 12 percent in the latest quarter, following an 11 percent rise in excise duty in January. The CPI less cigarettes and tobacco, fell 0.7 percent. The average price of a pack of 25 cigarettes was about $26.40 in the March 2015 quarter, compared with $23.30 in the December 2014 quarter. (efxnews) 26.40??? Are you serious? And I once thought of doing extended holidays there, scratch that plan...

The whole reason behind the constant rises in tobacco prices is to discourage cigarette smoking totally. This is coupled with increasingly popular 'No Smoking' areas and this is ALL a good thing. Good for peoples health, good for productivity and good for savings on health funding.

If you don't want to come here because you smoke.....well.....we don't mind
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #9,159
  • Apr 19, 2015 8:17pm Apr 19, 2015 8:17pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} The whole reason behind the constant rises in tobacco prices is to discourage cigarette smoking totally. This is coupled with increasingly popular 'No Smoking' areas and this is ALL a good thing. Good for peoples health, good for productivity and good for savings on health funding. If you don't want to come here because you smoke.....well.....we don't mind
Earn more from tourists and visitors - mainly Chinese and American (their currencies are higher exchange rates), is good for NZD.
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Anzac commemorative coins march out of PostShop and Kiwibank doors
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2015/an...s-popular.html

I think today NZD still stays at high level and needs to wait for London session for further direction.
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NZ Dollar Outlook: Kiwi's fate this week at the mercy of US interest rate views
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/nz...234100999.html
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  • #9,160
  • Apr 19, 2015 8:31pm Apr 19, 2015 8:31pm
Quoting roger44
{quote} Earn more from tourists and visitors - mainly Chinese and American (their currencies are higher exchange rates), is good for NZD.
Income from all overseas visitors is good for NZ economy, of course. But to cite the cost of tobacco as a reason to not visit...well...the less smokers in NZ, the better.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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