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  • #8,241
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:49pm Apr 17, 2015 1:49pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} USD looks as though we 're heading for a period of lower lows, USD/Y may want to test 116 and then 112.75 over the next couple of months
the above is such a hard grind, USD/Y just doesn't want to fall, got my stops in at +10 but in two minds whether to just close and the whole profit, playing the weekly and monthly is hard
  • #8,242
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:00pm Apr 17, 2015 2:00pm
Quoting The Fool
I am trying to fill a May SPY $212/$213 short call spread to help fund my Bear diagonal.
filled @ $0.28, I think I'm in the same trade as SDog for 1/2 the money...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,243
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:07pm Apr 17, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I may of closed early this may end up 400 points down also remember I've been talking about that 17600 level for a few weeks now, take that out then I'm looking for a further 1000 point drop over the coming months. Its healthy to get a correction of some sort now as the US will be gearing up to its elections next year and usually that coincides with a continuation of a bull market. Thanks T.F.
I hope so.
Wonderful trade on DIA, CG.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,244
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:09pm Apr 17, 2015 2:09pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} filled @ $0.28, I think I'm in the same trade as SDog for 1/2 the money...
I have 212/214 my friend...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,245
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:23pm Apr 17, 2015 2:23pm
I have done several blocks of that May $212/$213 bear call vert, will be calling it a week soon, going out to do some surveying. Perfect day here, crystal sky, 65-70 deg.

Maybe I should buy some VXX puts before the close, the whole Greek Brouhaha just blow over by next week.....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,246
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:43pm Apr 17, 2015 2:43pm
Quoting The Fool
Maybe I should buy some VXX puts before the close, the whole Greek Brouhaha just blow over by next week.....?
no VXX, but trying some $213/$214 May SPY bear verts for $0.25
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,247
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:47pm Apr 17, 2015 2:47pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I hope so. Wonderful trade on DIA, CG.
Thx S.D.
  • #8,248
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:49pm Apr 17, 2015 2:49pm
have a good weekend, ya'll - fingers crossed for more vol to come...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,249
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:51pm Apr 17, 2015 2:51pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} US Market are really a pain in the ass to trade... SPX was sitting on that resistance line I showed you above for 30 f.... ng hours. SPX needs EXCUSE to drop, when it is sitting on resistance. China, Greece... Hitting resistance on light volume should do the trick, you don't need anything else. Can you imagine the relief rally if they make a deal with Greeks over the weekend? A massive gap up, DAX +4.5%, SPX +2.5% and so on...? And everything would be just awesome for buy-and-holder old geezers , VIX again at $12,...
VIX $12 is a real possibility just look whats above the VIX 50 and 200 day MA, tough resistance
  • #8,250
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:55pm Apr 17, 2015 2:55pm
Just noticed where APPLE is on the daily chart, IF it breaks below 124.48 and holds then I'm looking for $115 in the next couple of months
  • #8,251
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:55pm Apr 17, 2015 2:55pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} VIX $12 is a real possibility just look whats above the VIX 50 and 200 day MA, tough resistance
gonna take some straight days of SnP selling to wake that up, but it could happen.

Meanwhile, NFLX up again, looks like they are gonna take it above $600....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,252
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:56pm Apr 17, 2015 2:56pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} no VXX, but trying some $213/$214 May SPY bear verts for $0.25
not filling, just as well....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,253
  • Edited 10:13pm Apr 17, 2015 9:56pm | Edited 10:13pm
I have Apr4 $7.50 long puts to try to catch a shock drop after the ER next Wed, but PBR is actually looking quite bullish....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-04-17_pbr3.png Size: 59 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,254
  • Apr 17, 2015 10:49pm Apr 17, 2015 10:49pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/greece...I3XzEEc2VjA3Nj
"German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said today that the current Greek government has "destroyed" any progress that the previous administration made on resolving its economic problems, and that there's no chance of an agreement this month. So if April 24 really is the deadline, and Greece's euro partners see no chance of reaching a deal by then, the endgame for the Greek drama is just a little more than a week away -- and there seems little prospect of a happy ending."

no, no, sweetums, that's not really the deadline, don't worry, we'll give um more money, everything's gonna be all right...there, there...

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,255
  • Apr 18, 2015 12:04am Apr 18, 2015 12:04am
What Greece owes and when....
http://graphics.wsj.com/greece-debt-timeline/

they won't make it past June.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,256
  • Apr 18, 2015 12:17am Apr 18, 2015 12:17am
Quoting The Fool
they won't make it past June.....
contagion, omg, save yourselves, etc...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-04-17_FXE.png Size: 63 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,257
  • Apr 18, 2015 7:24pm Apr 18, 2015 7:24pm
Quoting The Fool
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/greece...I3XzEEc2VjA3Nj "German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said today that the current Greek government has "destroyed" any progress that the previous administration made on resolving its economic problems, and that there's no chance of an agreement this month. So if April 24 really is the deadline, and Greece's euro partners see no chance of reaching a deal by then, the endgame for...

Inserted Video
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #8,258
  • Apr 18, 2015 11:32pm Apr 18, 2015 11:32pm
Quoting The Fool
Funny, Greek default all the buzz and fiber makes nary a move down. Maybe the EMU will be relieved to get rid of Greece?
yah, sooo funny. no breakthroughs from the IMF/WB heads yet, just dire warnings. will be watching for the inevitable miraculous compromise to be announced on Sunday, but will be disappointed if it is, in multiple ways...otherwise a show of USD strength is overdue. I need to see some movement from TLT or I am going to stamp my foot, I swear...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,259
  • Edited 1:20pm Apr 19, 2015 10:45am | Edited 1:20pm
I have been watching FXI and EWH but I can't tell what the PBOC's weekend moves might do for them...they try to cool down the stock boom but also free up 1 trillion rmb new liquidity? - more likely will be more bullish.

http://www.marctomarket.com/2015/04/...t-climate.html
"The second development is China's policy initiative announced after local markets had closed last week. Essentially it did four things. First, Chinese fund managers have been granted permission to lend stocks (securities lending). Second, the number of stocks than be shorted increased will increase from 900 to 1100. Third, officials moved to curb brokers extending margin for umbrella trusts, which already allow greater leverage All three measures point in the same direction--lower stock prices--and sure enough the futures markets sold off with the cash markets closed.

However, the fourth measure, announced early Sunday, may push in the opposite direction. The PBOC announced a 100 bp cut in the required reserves of all banks. This is the second cut in two months and was twice as large as the previous adjustment. It can be expected to free up around a trillion yuan of liquidity. Officials appear concerned about the growth prospects, even though Q1 GDP was reported at the 7% target. In addition, the capital outflows drain liquidity from the banking system. The required reserves of rural banks was cut an additional 100 bp, and the Agricultural Bank of China was given an additional 200 bp cut in the reserve requirement.

China's equity markets completed a seven week advance that has lifted the indices to seven year highs. Measures of valuation are stretched. Margin use is at a record. The anticipation of additional stimulus measures from the government and central bank, and the government's guidance toward exchange-traded products from the shadow banking system has encouraged a move into equities. Officials have cautioned against "irrational exuberance." "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,260
  • Apr 19, 2015 4:10pm Apr 19, 2015 4:10pm
levels to watch for downside

DOW below 17795 then test 17600 break that 17398 and on, if we trade above 17960 then we go higher and break all time highs

SPX needs to break and trade below 2075 then 2064 for a test down to 2018 and on, trade above 2086 then higher again

USD (cash settled) had a bounce of the 50 day and closed at 97.71, so if we trade above 98.10 then higher from here when market open.

We are still with the last FOMC range
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