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  • #8,221
  • Apr 16, 2015 2:50pm Apr 16, 2015 2:50pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Well, I will take a /ES gap down overnight, inflation data out bmo Fri will point the way. My SPY spread is sitting near b/e, I should maybe just close it ... it was only ever in profit for an hour or so.... Upside breakout could be big, I might not have a chance to get out Friday if a gap up starts the day...decisions, decisions....
I know... market keeps going up on light volume, but if I ever learned anything about global markets ---> is that they can be illogical for (I can't help myself, I will use that sweet FED lingo again...) considerable time...

Feeling the heat on my SPY May 212/214 call spreads...

One of the traders sayings that make sense is something like: I would rather feel sorry for missing a good trade, than feel sorry for entering a bad one.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,222
  • Apr 16, 2015 2:55pm Apr 16, 2015 2:55pm
Quoting StrayDog
.. Feeling the heat on my SPY May 212/214 call spreads... One of the traders sayings that make sense is something like: I would rather feel sorry for missing a good trade, than feel sorry for entering a bad one.
Well I knew $211 short might be tight, shitty vol & anything higher too cheap, so I deserve what I get. That'll be 3-4c profit if I get out now. For 5c I will show my panties...form a line...

FML....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,223
  • Apr 16, 2015 3:02pm Apr 16, 2015 3:02pm
hasta maņana...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,224
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:47pm Apr 16, 2015 9:47pm
EWZ drifted up off the sweet $34 money, but I see it was falling back ah....just need a CPI beat Friday and the old good news = bad news because omg the Fed will tighten sooner meme to kick in and EWZ drops back to $34 and TF is a happy camper
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,225
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:33pm Apr 16, 2015 10:33pm
this drama is getting close to a climactic scene. Greece is going to go over the limit, default on some debt payments that have come due, or...yet again, a miraculous compromise is reached and the can gets kicked down the road until the next debt payments are due.
https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/im...023942875.html

Meanwhile, VIX derivatives making new lows - the VXX slide over the last week or so looks just like the inception of the one it made a year ago - where it dropped 40% in 2 months, May-July 2014....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,226
  • Edited 10:53pm Apr 16, 2015 10:41pm | Edited 10:53pm
nevertheless, some of these lotto tickets are worth a shot...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,227
  • Apr 17, 2015 4:55am Apr 17, 2015 4:55am
looking to do a vertical put spread on DIA when market opens 179.50 write and buy 179 put for 3 - 5c
  • #8,228
  • Apr 17, 2015 4:59am Apr 17, 2015 4:59am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} USD looks as though we 're heading for a period of lower lows, USD/Y may want to test 116 and then 112.75 over the next couple of months
still short on above from yesterday maybe today we get the follow through to start
  • #8,229
  • Apr 17, 2015 9:03am Apr 17, 2015 9:03am
Quoting The Fool
EWZ drifted up ..... and EWZ drops back to $34 and TF is a happy camper
EWZ drops below $34.50 and I am on my way to a net $0.40, a bright spot in a drab stack. SPY $211/$212 will make full profit, $0.18...I am looking at a Friday scalp but, given my performance on those lately, I might just paper trade it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,230
  • Apr 17, 2015 12:38pm Apr 17, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting The Fool
EWZ drops below $34.50 and I am on my way to a net $0.40, a bright spot in a drab stack. SPY $211/$212 will make full profit, $0.18...I am looking at a Friday scalp but, given my performance on those lately, I might just paper trade it....
EWZ having a hard time getting down <$34.5, I had a $0.40 GTC on and it was hit, so net $0.31 I think. The ideal finish for these is if you pin the calendar strike and close out near the end of the exp day - a real lotto moment.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,231
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:06pm Apr 17, 2015 1:06pm
I filled a SPY bear put diagonal, May/May4 $198/$197, for $0.14, has a downside expiry b/e of around $195, upside @ $204.75.

Of course, now Greece will default and I will have to defend the floor of this trade.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,232
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:16pm Apr 17, 2015 1:16pm
Cecil, hope you shorted something!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,233
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:24pm Apr 17, 2015 1:24pm
Quoting The Fool
Cecil, hope you shorted something!

yes details to follow
  • #8,234
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:25pm Apr 17, 2015 1:25pm
Quoting The Fool
I filled a SPY bear put diagonal, May/May4 $198/$197, for $0.14, has a downside expiry b/e of around $195, upside @ $204.75. Of course, now Greece will default and I will have to defend the floor of this trade.
US Market are really a pain in the ass to trade... SPX was sitting on that resistance line I showed you above for 30 f.... ng hours. SPX needs EXCUSE to drop, when it is sitting on resistance. China, Greece... Hitting resistance on light volume should do the trick, you don't need anything else.

Can you imagine the relief rally if they make a deal with Greeks over the weekend? A massive gap up, DAX +4.5%, SPX +2.5% and so on...? And everything would be just awesome for buy-and-holder old geezers , VIX again at $12, UVXY goes single digit... it is a possible scenario, I just don't now the probability for it. Since these BTFD-ers crowd took plenty of my money, especially on Naz...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,235
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:33pm Apr 17, 2015 1:33pm
Quoting Cecil Gee;8211998[B
]looking to do a vertical put spread on DIA when market opens 179.50 write and buy 179 put for 3 - 5c[/b]
as the market was already down when it opened I had to go out further to do a cheap vertical put spread 178 put buy and 177 put write for 6c net and just closed a few moments ago for 49c minus the usual costs, still made over 7x

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
-NYSEArca
177.51 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 3.28(1.81%) 19:29 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #8,236
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:35pm Apr 17, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
still made over 7x
you da man!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,237
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:40pm Apr 17, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} you da man!
I may of closed early this may end up 400 points down also remember I've been talking about that 17600 level for a few weeks now, take that out then I'm looking for a further 1000 point drop over the coming months. Its healthy to get a correction of some sort now as the US will be gearing up to its elections next year and usually that coincides with a continuation of a bull market.

Thanks T.F.
  • #8,238
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:42pm Apr 17, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting StrayDog
Can you imagine the relief rally if they make a deal with Greeks over the weekend? ...
well that would be the usual scenario, but they's no guarantees, either way. We still have the rest of earning season, the meat of it, to get through. I am trying to fill a May SPY $212/$213 short call spread to help fund my Bear diagonal. So I have gone super bear. If I'm wrong, I will try to adjust, may is a good piece out.

Funny, Greek default all the buzz and fiber makes nary a move down. Maybe the EMU will be relieved to get rid of Greece?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,239
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:44pm Apr 17, 2015 1:44pm
Quoting The Fool
I am trying to fill a May SPY $212/$213 short call spread to help fund my Bear diagonal.
Looking for $0.28, won't take less - maybe do better next week if we rebound.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,240
  • Apr 17, 2015 1:45pm Apr 17, 2015 1:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well that would be the usual scenario, but they's no guarantees, either way. We still have the rest of earning season, the meat of it, to get through. I am trying to fill a May SPY $212/$213 short call spread to help fund my Bear diagonal. So I have gone super bear. If I'm wrong, I will try to adjust, may is a good piece out. Funny, Greek default all the buzz and fiber makes nary a move down. Maybe the EMU will be relieved to get rid of Greece?
keep an eye out where the cash settled USD index closes today it looks as though it wants to fall hard ONLY if it can tale out the 50 day average
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