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  • #8,201
  • Apr 15, 2015 2:11pm Apr 15, 2015 2:11pm
not filling NFLX bflies, not caring...

up against the wall again on SPY $211 short spread....if SPY gaps up tomorrow I will have to close that trade for a mean loss. TLT still moving sideways....Bullard yakked about rate hikes and scared it down, but the equities didn't care

have a good evening, SDog....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,202
  • Apr 15, 2015 2:58pm Apr 15, 2015 2:58pm
Quoting The Fool
not filling NFLX bflies, not caring... ....
I was only shooting short, like $430/$425/$420 puts, current week and 1 or 2 weeks out, also - only willing to spend $0.05-$0.10, not filled, we'll see if it was a good idea...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,203
  • Apr 15, 2015 3:07pm Apr 15, 2015 3:07pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I was only shooting short, like $430/$425/$420 puts, current week and 1 or 2 weeks out, also - only willing to spend $0.05-$0.10, not filled, we'll see if it was a good idea...
nope.....lucky I never filled nothin
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,204
  • Apr 15, 2015 7:02pm Apr 15, 2015 7:02pm
Quoting The Fool
not filling NFLX bflies, not caring... up against the wall again on SPY $211 short spread....if SPY gaps up tomorrow I will have to close that trade for a mean loss. TLT still moving sideways....Bullard yakked about rate hikes and scared it down, but the equities didn't care have a good evening, SDog....
you may get lucky as there is overnight weakness building in the DOW futures and if so it should help your SPY short
, i'll be hunting for a put spread on the DIA tomorrow
  • #8,205
  • Apr 15, 2015 7:22pm Apr 15, 2015 7:22pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} you may get lucky as there is overnight weakness building in the DOW futures and if so it should help your SPY short , i'll be hunting for a put spread on the DIA tomorrow
USD looks as though we 're heading for a period of lower lows, USD/Y may want to test 116 and then 112.75 over the next couple of months
  • #8,206
  • Apr 16, 2015 5:26am Apr 16, 2015 5:26am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} USD looks as though we 're heading for a period of lower lows, USD/Y may want to test 116 and then 112.75 over the next couple of months
second part of the month and weekly plus monthly charts have kicked in
  • #8,207
  • Apr 16, 2015 5:40am Apr 16, 2015 5:40am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} you may get lucky as there is overnight weakness building in the DOW futures and if so it should help your SPY short , i'll be hunting for a put spread on the DIA tomorrow
any negative earnings from Goldman plus econ data may be enough to extend a 300 point plus fall today on the DOW
  • #8,208
  • Apr 16, 2015 6:37am Apr 16, 2015 6:37am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} any negative earnings from Goldman plus econ data may be enough to extend a 300 point plus fall today on the DOW
good morning, Cecil....0430 here on the West Coast of the US...the alarm comes on at 0400 and it's the radio, set to Bloomberg Surveillance. What I heard this morning that caught my attention: big IMF meeting in DC, lots of talk there about Greek default and Grexit, Greek bond yields spiking....Blackrock earnings crush estimates....the Saudis have increased oil production this month by 0.6 MBD....

GS announces a big beat. We'll see whether US equity futures can stay depressed....I see /ES down and UST's up, a risk-off scenario, but anything can change,,,,
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,209
  • Apr 16, 2015 6:43am Apr 16, 2015 6:43am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} good morning, Cecil....0430 here on the West Coast of the US...the alarm comes on at 0400 and it's the radio, set to Bloomberg Surveillance. What I heard this morning that caught my attention: big IMF meeting in DC, lots of talk there about Greek default and Grexit, Greek bond yields spiking....Blackrock earnings crush estimates....the Saudis have increased oil production this month by 0.6 MBD.... GS announces a big beat. We'll see whether US equity futures can stay depressed....I see /ES down and UST's up, a risk-off scenario, but anything...
heard GS post great earnings, may change things somewhat, all depends what they and others think next quarter may hold, syrong dollar beating down GDP or not, we are getting less favourable econ data last few times
  • #8,210
  • Apr 16, 2015 7:27am Apr 16, 2015 7:27am
/ES and /ZB are coming in off their earlier extremes, maybe floated by the positive financial stock ER results this morning. I am surprised to see fiber supported as much as it is and I can't expect that to last. More US data out in a minute, will add some clues...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,211
  • Apr 16, 2015 7:53am Apr 16, 2015 7:53am
PBR reports earnings (Q3 and Q4, '14..?) next Wednesday, finally...I suppose the potential is there for a big drop, will get in something put side to catch that...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-04-16_pbr.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,212
  • Apr 16, 2015 8:03am Apr 16, 2015 8:03am
Quoting The Fool
/ES and /ZB are coming in off their earlier extremes, maybe floated by the positive financial stock ER results this morning. I am surprised to see fiber supported as much as it is and I can't expect that to last. More US data out in a minute, will add some clues...
...employment/housing data a little bearish, /ZB greener, /ES a little redder. CPI out tomorrow, if it's good omg the Fed will be coming wit da 0.1% ffr hike
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,213
  • Apr 16, 2015 11:34am Apr 16, 2015 11:34am
Hey TF... thinking about that massive bearish bet on UVXY again... I used to sell call spreads on VXX before... totally missed this UVXY slide.

I can't remember password for one of the paper-trading accounts, where I have a 30,000 shares short position... ...Just to see that mofo shorted @ $48 and change I think. Entry was about year and a half ago... Never had the guts to short that mofo live... but you can do more conservative thing ---> buy SVXY or XIV.

Holding just 3 trades on my account. A number too small.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,214
  • Apr 16, 2015 12:33pm Apr 16, 2015 12:33pm
Quoting StrayDog
I missed good entry on CL options, but I entered yesterday on CL Jun 42 put. I sold it for $0.22 ($220)......
That was 3 days ago. I just closed that put for $0.09 ($90). Idk, good return in 3 days. Looking to reload on some dip... I still think it will retest $54 again.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,215
  • Apr 16, 2015 1:34pm Apr 16, 2015 1:34pm
Quoting StrayDog
Hey TF... thinking about that massive bearish bet on UVXY again....
Selling down spikes on the VIX products is the way to go....BUT, no harm in throwing pennies at a long play when you think there might be some macro (or exogenous) events on the horizon that might jump it up. I have been trying to fill long-dated UVXY spreads for a while....they never fill down at the $0.0x levels I'm willing to play.

Right now I am trying a Sep call vertical, $16/$17 for $0.04, $0.01 was the mid, a pipe dream....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,216
  • Apr 16, 2015 1:42pm Apr 16, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting The Fool
PBR reports earnings (Q3 and Q4, '14..?) next Wednesday, finally...I suppose the potential is there for a big drop, will get in something put side to catch that...
I bought some Apr4 $7.5 puts for $0.11, trying to leg into a bear put spread, maybe some traders see things as I do and sell off the recent run-up before the ER.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,217
  • Apr 16, 2015 2:01pm Apr 16, 2015 2:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I bought some Apr4 $7.5 puts for $0.11, trying to leg into a bear put spread, maybe some traders see things as I do and sell off the recent run-up before the ER.
Apr4 8/7.5 put spread... mid price $0.10, but $0.11 more realistic... you are probably looking at 7.50/7

If it drops like a rock, you can do well with just that solo puts...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,218
  • Apr 16, 2015 2:17pm Apr 16, 2015 2:17pm
Quoting StrayDog
If it drops like a rock, you can do well with just that solo puts...
indeed, but my fear is that they somehow postpone the ER yet AGAIN, although I think if they do, the ADR's get delisted. A little pullback in crude sometime in the next week will help....

SPY bulls one more day can not bust thru the $211, I need a serious break down to sleep easy on $211 short call spread, though....one more day...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,219
  • Apr 16, 2015 2:35pm Apr 16, 2015 2:35pm
Quoting The Fool
... SPY bulls one more day can not bust thru the $211, I need a serious break down to sleep easy on $211 short call spread, though....one more day...
Yeah, idk about anything serious, though I would very much like that... BUT a small pullback is very likely... look at current SPX chart - 240 min
it has to drop NOW, if it keeps testing that line it will go up... so now, today/tomorrow it needs to go down... it has bear dvg on this 240 min timeframe also

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX-04-16.PNG Size: 246 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,220
  • Apr 16, 2015 2:42pm Apr 16, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yeah, idk about anything serious, though I would very much like that... BUT a small pullback is very likely... look at current SPX chart - 240 min it has to drop NOW, if it keeps testing that line it will go up...
Well, I will take a /ES gap down overnight, inflation data out bmo Fri will point the way. My SPY spread is sitting near b/e, I should maybe just close it ... it was only ever in profit for an hour or so.... Upside breakout could be big, I might not have a chance to get out Friday if a gap up starts the day...decisions, decisions....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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