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Let's Trade Options

  • #8,161
  • Apr 13, 2015 4:24pm Apr 13, 2015 4:24pm
Quoting The Fool
Maybe I can turn things around with some good earnings trades. Looking at NFLX in the coming week. Might fund a May long call bfly with a Apr short put vertical...will wait for ivol to peak on ER day....
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102581900?__s...&doc=102581900

glad to see NFLX moving up into earnings but that weighs on the iv build a little bit. Even so, need to get my nerve up to trade something on that....it's such a wild mofo...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,162
  • Apr 13, 2015 7:14pm Apr 13, 2015 7:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} after a couple weeks of uptrend might I catch a break with a couple red candles this week? Looking for USD strength to weigh on stocks....we'll see.
banking on some red candles so I've entered a short just now on GBP/JPY from this price 176.14 with a s/l at 176.55 and take profit around 172 as for the DOW i may wait till Wednesday to take a trade on that
  • #8,163
  • Apr 14, 2015 3:34am Apr 14, 2015 3:34am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} banking on some red candles so I've entered a short just now on GBP/JPY from this price 176.14 with a s/l at 176.55 and take profit around 172 as for the DOW i may wait till Wednesday to take a trade on that
s/l moved to 175.80 and locked in 34 pips, will trail down stop slowly from now price now at 175.10
  • #8,164
  • Apr 14, 2015 4:19am Apr 14, 2015 4:19am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} s/l moved to 175.80 and locked in 34 pips, will trail down stop slowly from now price now at 175.10
s/l moved down to 175.50 locked in 64 pips
  • #8,165
  • Apr 14, 2015 6:09am Apr 14, 2015 6:09am
Hi guys... Hey good one on G/Y, CG!

Hey TF, can't be without Brazil exposure huh? Nice one re EWZ calendar...

-------------------------------------------
from Seeking Alpha

Petrobras looks to avoid technical default
Apr 14 2015, 02:12 ET | About: Petrobras - Petroleo Brasi... (PBR) | By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor http://seekingalpha.com/images/mail_icon.png

  1. Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) expects to release its long-delayed audited financial results for 2014 as early as next Wednesday, in the wake of a corruption scandal that has extended to the highest levels of Brazil's government.
  2. The results, which have been delayed for more than five months, will help the state-controlled oil company avert a default on as much as $54B in bonds.
  3. PBR shares have plunged more than 50% since the scandal gained traction in early October.


Brazilian version of "too big to fail"...

Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,166
  • Apr 14, 2015 6:43am Apr 14, 2015 6:43am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} s/l moved down to 175.50 locked in 64 pips
stopped +64 pips
  • #8,167
  • Apr 14, 2015 9:34am Apr 14, 2015 9:34am
Quoting StrayDog
Hey TF, can't be without Brazil exposure huh? Nice one re EWZ calendar.... Brazilian version of "too big to fail"...
PBR could get whacked down when those earnings finally come out....if they report a huge $number re: losses from theft...but that would be a buying opp for the stock. EWZ trading now at $34.0x, I paid $0.09 & want to net $0.30, holding on for the P/L blow-up on Thurs-Fri

Apr/Apr4 SPY $211/$212 short vertical looking safer now.....I only got $0.18 for it, will try to let it expire...

Watching NFLX IVR rising - I am looking at IC about $80 out
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,168
  • Apr 14, 2015 10:20am Apr 14, 2015 10:20am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} stopped +64 pips
Good one my friend... I just canceled my short order on EUR, since I was fishing for it @ 1.0715... fibo 38.2 retracement... mofo was 8 pips lower
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,169
  • Apr 14, 2015 11:21am Apr 14, 2015 11:21am
I published my new trading plan somewhere above... ... planing to stick to it in the future... That will mean that I will abandon all or vast majority of option trades on individual stocks, unless it is ER's trades, or maybe AAPL . Lost on AMZN again. I had a bear call spread on it. It had upgrade today... NFLX has ER's tomorrow... if it goes up again, it will probably drag AMZN and such stocks up.

I am very very interested in small trades on futures options. When I say small, I mean only 1 contract. I missed good entry on CL options, but I entered yesterday on CL Jun 42 put. I sold it for $0.22 ($220). June contract for Oil trades about $2 higher than current May contract... June contract trades for $55.15... that option is $0.16 ($160) now. It has to be more than 2st deviation move to get ITM.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,170
  • Apr 14, 2015 12:09pm Apr 14, 2015 12:09pm
Are you daring me to put a big ER trade on NFLX, SDog? I might skip the short term and see if I can get in some May bfly action for cheap, as the IVR peaks....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,171
  • Apr 14, 2015 1:03pm Apr 14, 2015 1:03pm
Quoting StrayDog
I missed good entry on CL options, but I entered yesterday on CL Jun 42 put. I sold it for $0.22 ($220). June contract for Oil trades about $2 higher than current May contract... June contract trades for $55.15... that option is $0.16 ($160) now. It has to be more than 2st deviation move to get ITM.
Watching the build data tomorrow, maybe we get a reversal on another big number? The weekly $18.5/$18 puts runs $0.08 or so now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,172
  • Apr 14, 2015 1:12pm Apr 14, 2015 1:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Watching the build data tomorrow, maybe we get a reversal on another big number? The weekly $18.5/$18 puts runs $0.08 or so now....
Could be. And then another "buy-the-dip-opp"...
Good thing about futures options is that they share working hours with the u/l futures, meaning almost all day.
Bid/ask spread is wider outside of RTH, off course. But you can close the mofo anytime you want, a big advantage to USO options.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,173
  • Apr 14, 2015 1:48pm Apr 14, 2015 1:48pm
Hey TF... I am putting various debit call spreads with CL futures options on platform... you can do spreads like July 59.50/60 for $0.17... or go further, since July delivery trades at $56 now... expiry is in mid June (always a month before)...

So I am no longer motivated to do USO, when I can do all that with CL futures options, which work all day... AND I can do just one spread (vertical, calendar, whatever) and pay one commission, instead of 10 spreads and 10 comms... which are by the way the same per contract... hm... another world, just in front of my nose... well at least I found something exciting, since this PA on ES is BS.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,174
  • Apr 14, 2015 2:05pm Apr 14, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting StrayDog
another world, just in front of my nose... well at least I found something exciting, since this PA on ES is BS.
yah mon I hear ya on the /ES, won't break down or up, so I guess I will keep trying to sell call spreads, but there's no vol, so you try to get something pretty close (like $211 on SPY) to work...and risk getting your dck shot off.

10-4 on /CL, but I can't trade /CL options out of the IRA accounts. I would do it out of the straight broker accounts but in reality my time is very divided this time of year. USO leaves a lot to be desired, but will still pay out on some of the long-dated bullish spreads I have running - I hope
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,175
  • Apr 14, 2015 2:10pm Apr 14, 2015 2:10pm
what is the deal with this weakshit volume everywhere?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,176
  • Apr 14, 2015 2:49pm Apr 14, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting The Fool
what is the deal with this weakshit volume everywhere?
Idk, man... just 1.1 M on ES so far... I remember 1.5 - 2 M was volume before... or am I wrong here...
it's like non-alcoholic beer... taste like beer (sort of) but it certainly is not a beer...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,177
  • Edited 10:12pm Apr 14, 2015 3:27pm | Edited 10:12pm
Quoting StrayDog
or am I wrong here... ..
nah, SPY volume way down since early Feb, bet it hasn't averaged >100 million...well, why bother if the shit's not moving? Will have tomorrow off, see if I can find the nerve to trade the NFLX ER, ciao
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,178
  • Apr 14, 2015 4:11pm Apr 14, 2015 4:11pm
Just wanted to plant these here, so a subscription would grow...
Attached Image

Cheers Foo...keep at'em!

  • #8,179
  • Apr 14, 2015 6:52pm Apr 14, 2015 6:52pm
some Chinese data out later so will wait until tomorrow to place another vertical spread on DIA also will be able to take in another day of earnings, at the moment there's no conviction in moving higher and that USD index looks like it wants to give more back so until later I'm opening up a short trade on the USD/CAD from its current PRICE 1.2484 with a S/L 1.2501 and take profit 1.2415
  • #8,180
  • Apr 14, 2015 7:24pm Apr 14, 2015 7:24pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
some Chinese data out later..... I'm opening up a short trade on the USD/CAD
China data always worth waiting on, imho. I have been watching that U/CAD trade, a natural one for somebody who is also trading oil. Watch what the CAD does tomorrow (afternoon for you) when the US oil storage data comes out. Oil has gotten to be a pretty heavy swinger in these markets - one of the few things (I'd guess) not controlled by the CBankers, but manipulated all the same...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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