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  • #982,221
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:36am Apr 17, 2015 3:36am
I'm a fairly amateur trader and got caught in the recent H1 short move with an instant reversal. I thought it would breakout short but it went even more long? What's the error of my judgement here?
  • #982,222
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:38am Apr 17, 2015 3:38am
Quoting Deutschland
leading diagonal {image} {image} {image}
love the charts. Very similar to Pedro and Dano with ABCD analysis i have simialr fibs for a lower EUR just waiting for RSI to get or cross above 70 and dollar is so close to the B wave hi/low 786% so if it touches that and holds on hourly liftoff for dollar and eur should see selling.

A friend of mine several days ago who still works for the bank said to me what if people are gong long EUR knowing Greece will default and this will be bullish EURO same as when the berlin wall fell and marks went higher at first but then marks collapsed later as the cost of merging with western Berlin was evident. I was like hmm this could be a great theory and even if Greece default people will suspect a collapse in EURO but this could be the opposite of what happens. Food for thought as I just trade PA right now. Not trying to predict EURO anywhere more than a few hundred ticks.
  • #982,223
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:41am Apr 17, 2015 3:41am
Almost double top forming?
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #982,224
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:45am Apr 17, 2015 3:45am
Quoting biatche
I'm a fairly amateur trader and got caught in the recent H1 short move with an instant reversal. I thought it would breakout short but it went even more long? What's the error of my judgement here?
We were in between major exchanges opening so this is constant time of trading where false breakouts occur.
I would wait for at min a 1hr close below for confirmation as well instead of going off of 10m or 5m levels for a reversal. Look at it this way if the 1hr or even 4 hr closes below you can feel more at ease and ride the move into NY or even past NY.

This was a classic pump and mini dump in Dollar. I saw small orders going through not being more than a few dozen contracts a minutes in Dollar futures and then all of a sudden these odd mini block lots came in at 10...10..10.ect and sure enough for those three minutes we traded over 100 contracts per bar for a false spike up then dump.

I would say next time trade more liquid timezones and wait for confirmation on a bit larger time frame before putting in the short.
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  • #982,225
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:46am Apr 17, 2015 3:46am
it's already struggling with yesterday's high and the Monthly-PP 1.081x and behind that is Daily-R1 and the 61.8% level 1.084x so between them provide a shorting zone for me.

notice also how earlier today it bounced right off the Daily-PP and Weekly-PP combo level
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  • #982,226
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:51am Apr 17, 2015 3:51am
Quoting MaxDoom
it's already struggling with yesterday's high and the Monthly-PP 1.081x and behind that is Daily-R1 and the 61.8% level 1.084x so between them provide a shorting zone for me. notice also how earlier today it bounced right off the Daily-PP and Weekly-PP combo level {image}
i have 0822-25 watching closely now.
follow the flow
  • #982,227
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:52am Apr 17, 2015 3:52am
Is it me or Gbpusd weekly is turning very bullish ? If it rises here it coud head to 1,62xx. But i don't trade it, just an observation
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #982,228
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:52am Apr 17, 2015 3:52am
Quoting MaxDoom
it's already struggling with yesterday's high and the Monthly-PP 1.081x and behind that is Daily-R1 and the 61.8% level 1.084x so between them provide a shorting zone for me. notice also how earlier today it bounced right off the Daily-PP and Weekly-PP combo level {image}
Looking at 1,084x/5x for now.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #982,229
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:54am Apr 17, 2015 3:54am
Quoting kuroro001
Is it me or Gbpusd weekly is turning very bullish ? If it rises here it coud head to 1,62xx. But i don't trade it, just an observation
Its not just you we all have the same PA
  • #982,230
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:55am Apr 17, 2015 3:55am
Quoting kuroro001
Is it me or Gbpusd weekly is turning very bullish ? If it rises here it coud head to 1,62xx. But i don't trade it, just an observation
Can't tell yet.
  • #982,231
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:57am Apr 17, 2015 3:57am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Its not just you we all have the same PA
We do, but seeing different things..how come ?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #982,232
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:58am Apr 17, 2015 3:58am
I expect tonight's USD news will be bad as well and send EURUSD to another 1.09XX level
  • #982,233
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:59am Apr 17, 2015 3:59am
US CPI is more important, if they break R now, watch out if it's not gonna be false...
1.08 is one big resistance zone: 800-830, 850-880...it's in the first zone now...
  • #982,234
  • Apr 17, 2015 4:00am Apr 17, 2015 4:00am
Quoting Atihun
{quote} i have 0822-25 watching closely now.
Ok, and here are my numbers...the 831 is just the mid...
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DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #982,235
  • Apr 17, 2015 4:02am Apr 17, 2015 4:02am
Quoting Jure86
Sell @1.0800, TP= will see
Out...
  • #982,236
  • Apr 17, 2015 4:03am Apr 17, 2015 4:03am
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  • #982,237
  • Apr 17, 2015 4:04am Apr 17, 2015 4:04am
Quoting MaxDoom
it's already struggling with yesterday's high and the Monthly-PP 1.081x and behind that is Daily-R1 and the 61.8% level 1.084x so between them provide a shorting zone for me. notice also how earlier today it bounced right off the Daily-PP and Weekly-PP combo level {image}
spot on max with the core cpi being weak can't see how it can rally more but the strength is enormous since yesterday. have to be a bit careful
  • #982,238
  • Apr 17, 2015 4:05am Apr 17, 2015 4:05am
Sold at 829, SL 840, TP open
  • #982,239
  • Apr 17, 2015 4:07am Apr 17, 2015 4:07am
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} Ok, and here are my numbers...the 831 is just the mid... {image}
interesting.
follow the flow
  • #982,240
  • Apr 17, 2015 4:08am Apr 17, 2015 4:08am
Quoting jplazard
EURfut is approaching a SELL ZONE at 1.08-1.0850 Also Dollar should base around these levels down to 97.30-20 Given it's Thursday I won't go long just yet until the levels above are reached. Will definitely be in before CPI release though Reasoning: CPI might surprise to the upside given the recent upward trajectory in several key commodities (dollar bullish/better CPI) Oversold levels on RSI on H4 in dollar and EURfut once the above levels are reached. The dollar is now resting on a major downward support line since its first top at 100.785 They...

We are pretty much exactly where I was expecting us to trade and dollar is about close to test 786 key b wave hi.low and EUR is about read to touch the 618 b wave level
RSI on dollar OVERSOLD ON H4
RSI on EUR ALMOST OVERSOLD at 64 right now so not extreme just yet.

I am putting out a small feller trades at these levels in case we move higher into US but I am aware that we still could touch 786% on dollar and 618% on eur Either way this will be a decent trade if the fibs hold up shorting EUR at this level and long dollar

Bot DX at 97.40
Sold 6e (eur) at 1.0831

Looking for better than exp CPI or just PROFIT TAKING on EUR going into US close given the major vol that will take place next week and its hard to be a serious bull with so much uncertainty. Off to bed now lets hope I wake up to a higher dollar and lower EUR.
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